Lance's 2023 Divisional Round Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 165-96

Overall ATS: 105-92

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Baltimore over Houston (ATS: HOU +9.5)

No surprises this week. My numbers favor Houston to cover and Baltimore to win. Houston has an incredibly bright future, but I believe the "no rookie QB starting in a Super Bowl" streak continues.

San Francisco over Green Bay (ATS: GB +9.5)

Same boat as the Houston-Baltimore game. Green Bay was phenomenal last week, and they'll need to keep it going this week if they're going to pull off an even bigger upset.

Detroit over Tampa Bay (ATS: DET -6.5)

Detroit is still favored by my numbers, so I can feel good about picking them to continue on. However, if the Tampa we saw against Philly shows up, Detroit will need to do more than what they did against the Rams.

Buffalo over Kansas City (ATS: BUF -2.5)

With the way Buffalo has played through the second half of the season compared to K.C.'s lackluster performances, I'm not surprised my numbers favor Buffalo. Sure the Chiefs won by double-digit points last week, but it was also a freezing cold game against a warm weather team, they won't have that advantage this time (not to mention they won't have the Arrowhead advantage either).

There were 11 teams that had a chance to make the Super Bowl heading into the season based on my numbers and my feelings on a handful of team's rosters (16 if you only consider my numbers), there are now 5 remaining (BAL, BUF, KC, DET & SF). My preseason Super Bowl prediction (Cincinnati over Philadelphia) fell apart in season, but my midseason prediction (Baltimore over Detroit) is still alive. Here's to hoping it's still a possibility after this week