Lance's 2023 Draft Grades
If you haven't read one of my draft grade article before, you’re going to notice that I don’t hand out very many A’s. Way back when I first started doing this (the grading scale was even tougher back then) Bryar told me that he’s glad he didn’t have me as a teacher in high school. When I got out of the Navy my original plan was to go to school and become a history teacher, so apparently there are a lot of kids out there that don't know they should be relieved I went a different direction.
This is just the grading system I use, and it’s difficult to score high. In order to hand out grades I grade each individual pick with a number between -2 and 3. Then a team's total score is divided by the number of picks they made giving them a score between -2 and 3. And I use that score to determine a grade.
A+ = 2.00 or more
A = 1.75 to 1.99
A- = 1.50 to 1.74
B+ = 1.25 to 1.49
B = 1.00 to 1.24
B- = 0.75 to 0.99
C+ = 0.50 to 0.74
C = 0.25 to 0.49
C- = 0 to 0.24
D = -0.10 to -0.50
F = Below -0.50
Included with each team’s grade is either my favorite or my least favorite pick and little blurb about their draft.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Score: 1.80 Grade: A
Favorite Pick: OG Chandler Zavala (4th round)
Outlook: I try and avoid listing first round picks as my favorite pick, so while I was very happy to see them take Bryce Young, I gotta go with their fourth round selection. Because my system is done using the players that went to the Combine I have to run non-Combine invitees through it after they're drafted. Had Zavala gotten a Combine invite he would've graded out as my #3 Guard. Overall I don't really have anything negative to say about their draft. The one thing I will mention is the Jonathan Mingo pick. I like him, I think he can excel in Reich's offense, but with Josh Downs and Jalin Hyatt still available at that point I wonder if they might regret the decision later.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Score: 1.33 Grade: B+
Favorite Pick: OT Blake Freeland (4th round)
Outlook: There were two picks I didn't like from Indy's draft and they came at opposite ends (Anthony Richardson in the first and Jaylon Jones in the 7th). If you make 12 selections and I don't agree with 2 of them, then I'm not going to knock you. I view Richardson as a developmental player and had a day 3 grade on him, but then the Colts added Josh Downs, Blake Freeland and Will Mallory to a cast that already has some solid pieces. The Colts are trying to do everything possible to make sure he has a chance to succeed early.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Score: 1.00 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: QB Clayton Tune (5th round)
Outlook: There were a few different directions I could've gone with my favorite pick here. Such as their effort to improve their O-Line with Paris Johnson and Jon Gaines. Or, the work they put toward their front seven with B.J. Ojulari, Dante Stills and Owen Pappoe (who could allow them to move Simmons into a more permanent coverage role). But I was high on Clayton Tune and I loved this spot. I know, it seems weird since they have Kyler Murray, but let me throw out this scenario: Arizona's new coaching staff realizes the reported problems surrounding Murray are too much for them to want to deal with, and/or that they don't want to fully commit to the specific offense Murray needs, and/or as a mobile QB, the injury he suffered causes further problems for him down the road, similar to RGIII. Tune could give them a potential alternative option in a couple years once he further develops.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Score: 1.00 Grade: B
Favorite Pick: CB Cory Trice (7th round)
Outlook: Pitt is making all the right moves to continue to compete with possibly the worst Quarterback in one of the toughest divisions in the league. Broderick Jones gives them an answer on the blindside. Nick Herbig in the fourth is an awesome third option in their pass rush rotation. But the Cory Trice pick in the 7th was a steal. I know I'm basically alone on this island, but I like him a lot more than the Joey Porter Jr. pick in the 2nd.
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Score: 0.89 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: CB Jakorian Bennett (4th round)
Outlook: I felt the Raiders biggest weakness was their secondary, yet they waited until day 3 to address it and boy did they nail it. Jakorian Bennett and Christopher Smith should come in and compete for starting spots right away. Michael Mayer in the second round was an awesome pick after the Foster Moreau news, and the Darren Waller trade. Loved the Byron Young pick in the third as another guy that can compete for a major role right away. And their last two picks, Burney and Silvera, offer potential future starters.
Team: Detroit Lions
Score: 0.88 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: QB Hendon Hooker (3rd round)
Outlook: I wanted Hooker to end up with the Vikings, but I can't be mad about this landing spot either because he should be given the chance to compete as early as next season (depending on their plans for Goff). The Sam LaPorta pick was awesome as well. For my fellow dynasty league coaches out there looking for a future stud Tight End to stash, he's a good one.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Score: 0.75 Grade: B-
Favorite Pick: RB Chase Brown (5th round)
Outlook: I'll end up commenting on this quite a bit below, but I LOVED this RB class coming into the draft, and felt utterly defeated (from a dynasty football perspective) after the draft. So much talent landing in bad situations. Chase Brown was not one of those guys. If the rumors surrounding Mixon are to be believed Brown should get a chance to shine sooner rather than later. D.J. Turner in the 2nd round was a close second for my favorite pick. He should get a chance to start alongside Awuzie and Taylor-Britt right away.
Team: Houston Texans
Score: 0.67 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: WR Xavier Hutchinson (6th round)
Outlook: Despite the grade, Houston had arguably my favorite draft. As mentioned in my round 1 grades article, I loved the Stroud-Anderson back-to-back picks. Then they made sure to keep Nathaniel Dell in town giving Stroud a shifty speedster target. But the Xavier Hutchinson pick in the 6th round was an underrated steal. He's a bigger target (6'2, 203 pounds) and he has good athleticism with a 4.53 forty and 6.91 3-cone. And for those that think he's just a possession receiver, he can make things happen after the catch too, nearly half of his yards at Iowa State came after the ball got in his hands. This offense went from the cellar to a sleeper unit.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Score: 0.67 Grade: C+
Least Favorite Pick: QB Will Levis (2nd round)
Outlook: I was (am?) super high on Tyjae Spears. He scored incredibly high in my system and he was a lot of fun to watch at Tulane this past season especially in that bowl game against USC. But then after the Titans picked him it was announced that during his med exam at the combine they found that he has cartilage loss and no ACL in one knee. His career trajectory was compared to that of Jay Ajayi. Subsequently I have mixed feelings about it now so instead of listing him as my favorite pick, I listed Levis as my least favorite pick. I'm all for the "keep drafting QBs every year even if you already found your guy cause you never know" draft plan, but Levis was a day 3 project type of player, so why not use that second round pick on a different position of need and spend a day 3 pick on someone like Stetson Bennett, Clayton Tune or Jake Haener while letting someone else take the Levis risk?
Team: Chicago Bears
Score: 0.60 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: RB Roschon Johnson (4th round)
Outlook: Chicago scored decently in my system, but I'm not all that high on their draft. I did really like the Roschon Johnson pick in the 4th though. I also liked them attacking the Defensive Line in their draft. Dexter and Pickens on day two were high upside picks, and Bell in the 7th offers a lot of potential. Darnell Wright at pick 10 still kills me (kind of reminds me of when the Giants took Ereck Flowers at 10), and not drafting an edge rusher bothered me too.
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Score: 0.57 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: DT Keondre Coburn (6th round)
Outlook: I had mixed feelings about Kansas City's draft. I like Anudike-Uzomah's potential, but the first round was too rich for me even with the last pick of the round. I like the Rashee Rice pick in the second, but I would've loved them taking Downs or Hyatt more. Coburn in the 6th round was hands down my favorite pick though. I had a day 2 grade on him. He gives them a big run stuffing type to stick next to Chris Jones, with surprisingly decent pass rushing ability for a man of his size.
Team: New York Giants
Score: 0.57 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: WR Jalin Hyatt (3rd round)
Outlook: I really wanted to list Deonte Banks as my favorite pick because I was so high on him and I couldn't believe the Giants were able to get him after the Vikings picked. But like I said earlier, I don't like to list first round picks here if I can avoid it, and with the Giants draft I can in fact avoid it. Hyatt in the third round was incredible value and he only adds to the overhaul the Giants have been doing at the position. If they want that QB they just gave a $160 million contract to, despite only throwing 15 touchdowns last season, to succeed then putting weapons around him is the way to go. Bonus, Eric Gray in the 5th round is a very intriguing dynasty fantasy football prospect.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Score: 0.50 Grade: C+
Favorite Pick: CB Mekhi Blackmon (3rd round)
Outlook: How can I not list Blackmon as my favorite pick? I would've preferred Jakorian Bennett at that pick, but Blackmon was the second highest rated Corner left on my board, so I'm happy with it. I was not thrilled with the way the Vikings opened day three (Ward and Roy both had undrafted grades on my board), but I loved the way they closed it out. DeWayne McBride is a beast and if they do trade Dalvin Cook I will feel a lot better about it now knowing McBride will be working with Mattison.
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Score: 0.43 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: LB Daiyan Henley (3rd round)
Outlook: Daiyan Henley was a fantastic pick and it was even better after the news that the Chargers were not picking up Kenneth Murray's fifth year option. Don't be surprised if Henley beats Murray out for a starting spot and the Chargers move Murray for a 6th round pick before the season really gets going. Derius Davis in the 4th was a bad pick. He had an undrafted label for me, but I would've been fine with him going in the 6th or 7th round because of the returner side of his game.
Team: New Orleans Saints
Score: 0.29 Grade: C
Favorite Pick: RB Kendre Miller (3rd round)
Outlook: Isaiah Foskey was my sleeper Edge Rusher, but the second was a little high for me. A round or two later and he likely would've been my favorite pick the Saints made. A.T. Perry in the 6th round has the potential to be the best value pick of their entire draft provided he can get the drops under control. But the Kendre Miller pick intrigues me the most. With a suspension looming for Kamara the Saints needed someone to pair with the newly acquired Jamaal Williams. Enter Miller, who could also be a permanent replacement option if the downward trend we've been seeing from AK is due to wear and tear and not solely due to the Saints' offensive struggles.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Score: 0.15 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: CB Christian Braswell (6th round)
Outlook: First of all, I had Braswell no where near my board before the draft because he was not invited to the Combine. Similar to Zavala for the Panthers I ran Braswell through my system and he scored very high. He would've had a day 2 grade on my board. He was fantastic in coverage at Rutgers, especially this past season, and I think the Jags got a steal in the 6th round. Tank Bigsby was another pick I really liked. Etienne is the man in Jacksonville's backfield, but Bigsby will offer a nice change of pace, and should Etienne go down like he did his rookie year the run game would be able to continue moving forward. I was not a fan of Ventrell Miller and Tyler Lacy in the fourth, or of Antonio Johnson in the 5th.
Team: Cleveland Browns
Score: 0.14 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: OT Dawand Jones (4th round)
Outlook: I was no where near as high on Tillman as many other draft pundits seemed to be, so when Cleveland finally made their first pick of the draft in the third round and that's who they took I fully expected them to end up toward the bottom of my draft grades. They made up for it though with their next three picks. Siaki Ika and Isaiah McGuire will, if nothing else, provide much needed depth on their D-Line. But it was the Dawand Jones pick that I find myself coming back to. I'm not high on Jedrick Wills, I think he's a subpar Left Tackle that isn't suited to be a starter. Dawand Jones was a Right Tackle at Ohio State, but with Jack Conklin already there, and with Bitonio and Teller at Guard, I'm wondering if Cleveland's plan is to get Jones coached up on the Left side so they have an option if Wills doesn't step up his game.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Score: 0.14 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: S Jason Taylor II/DL Desjuan Johnson (7th round)
Outlook: The Rams made A LOT of picks, 14 to be exact, and they needed this draft to replenish what were very bare cupboards. Out of the 14, 6 were players I had undrafted labels on. But there were 6 other players that I think could turn out to be consistent starters for them and that includes the two I list above. Taylor was an absolute steal in the 7th. And after putting Johnson through my system I think we could see a second straight year of Mr. Irrelevant being relevant. Probably not to the same level Purdy was in his rookie year, but I like the potential. Stetson Bennett in the 4th round was the other pick I loved. If Stafford's injury lingers into or returns during this season, Bennett is the exact kind of low-cost rookie QB you want waiting in the wings.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Score: 0.13 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: LB SirVoccea Dennis (5th round)
Outlook: In my opinion, the Bucs started the draft off really well, butchered the three picks following Dennis, and ended on a solid note. I really like the Cody Mauch pick for two reasons: one, I believe he can play Right Tackle as a pro and with the big hole on the left side of their O-Line, Mauch moving into the RT spot would allow the Bucs to try and fill the blindside void with Wirfs. And two, I think he'd be a better Guard than Tackle, so if Right Tackle wasn't their plan, Guard is another area of need. The Dennis pick was the best one for me though. Tampa has two studs at Inside Linebacker, Devin White requested a trade, and Lavonte David is 33 years old and on a one year deal. If White gets his way Dennis could step right in to a starting role, and if he doesn't then Dennis will get a year of learning under one of the best to ever play the position (I'm referring to Lavonte David).
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: OG Andrew Vorhees (7th round)
Outlook: I was not a fan of Baltimore's draft at all until their last two picks. Aumavae-Laulu is someone I could see growing into the starting Right Tackle spot, but he's likely better suited as a solid backup option. Trading back in for Vorhees in the 7th was a brilliant move. Had it not been for the torn ACL at the Combine he likely would've been the first Guard off the board and could've potentially been a first round pick. As far as a I know it was a clean tear and his recovery is going well, so depending on how the Ravens choose to play this they could have their replacement for Ben Powers in the starting lineup before the end of the season.
Team: Denver Broncos
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: WR Marvin Mims (2nd Round)
Outlook: It's difficult to score high in my system when you only have five picks. I did love the Drew Sanders and Riley Moss picks in the third round, but the Marvin Mims pick in the 2nd was easily my favorite of theirs. Although, it did leave me asking the question: what does it mean for Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy or K.J. Hamler?
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: S Sydney Brown (3rd round)
Outlook: I already harped on my feelings about their first round in the article I posted Friday morning, so I'm not going to go down that rabbit trail again. The Sydney Brown pick was easily my favorite. He was my top rated Safety and I'd really like to see him in their starting lineup week 1 (not an unlikely possibility). I will say to those out there comparing him to Brian Dawkins, let's pump the brakes alright? Dawkins was one of the greatest Safeties of all time; don't push that bar so high that you end up hating him just because he doesn't reach your crazy standard.
Team: Washington Commanders
Score: 0.00 Grade: C-
Favorite Pick: C Ricky Stromberg (3rd round)
Outlook: The Commanders taking Jartavius Martin after drafting Forbes in the first shocked me. But man did they get a whole lot more athletic on the back end. Stromberg in the 3rd should be considered a slight reach based on my draft board (he had a day 3 grade), but I only had two draftable Centers (John Michael Schmitz was the other one), so if they felt Center was a need then I'm all for them going and getting this guy. He should give them some flexibility too, which could lead to them keeping Cosmi at Right Tackle. Their day three draft is ultimately what dragged them down. K.J. Henry was the lone bright spot in that group of four picks.
Team: New England Patriots
Score: -0.08 Grade: D
Favorite Pick: Edge Keion White (2nd round)
Outlook: I had undrafted grades on Jake Andrews, Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi. Couple them with Kayshon Boutte and there's the reason they scored so low. There were some interesting picks though, with my favorites being Keion White and Marte Mapu because they offer exactly what Belichick loves on defense, versatility.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Score: -0.11 Grade: D
Least Favorite Pick: TE Cameron Latu (3rd round)
Outlook: I really wasn't a fan of San Fran's draft. I considered listing Jake Moody as my favorite pick, but I tend to lean against taking Kickers or Punters earlier than day 3. I wasn't a fan of the Cameron Latu pick for two reasons: first, I had an undrafted label on him, and second, I don't understand targeting a position of strength (unless the player you're picking really is all that and a bag of chips) when you could've boosted an area of need such as a Corner, or Offensive Line, or Receiver.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Score: -0.20 Grade: D
Love/Hate Pick: RB Zach Charbonnet
Outlook: I like Charbonnet, I think he could be an animal at this level, but the fantasy football side of me is weighing in on this one. I have Kenneth Walker in my dynasty league, so not only did this pick cause me to die a little inside, it also meant I have one less player on my draft board this summer. I also liked the pick because Seattle spent the draft showing that their plans are to get back to what got them to the Super Bowl, a top-level defense and a very strong run game.
Team: Green Bay Packers
Score: -0.23 Grade: D
Favorite Pick: TE Tucker Kraft (3rd round)
Outlook: Luke Musgrave scored higher in my system than Kraft, but the tally of missed games due to injury for Musgrave made him a no go for me. Kraft is an intriguing selection though because he was relatively productive at South Dakota State, and he has a decent size-athleticism ratio. I was also intrigued with the Colby Wooden pick since they listed him as a Defensive Tackle. He's slightly below that interior defensive lineman size, but his athletic profile to me would suggest him having to play down in Green Bay's 3-4 like they listed him, so will it work out? I thought the Jayden Reed pick in the second was high, though I would attribute some of what went into his lower grade in my system to the poor passing offense he played in this past season.
Team: Miami Dolphins
Score: -0.25 Grade: D
Favorite Pick: OG Ryan Hayes (7th round)
Outlook: Like I said with Denver, it's hard to score high with so few picks, but Miami was on their way to an F before they drafted Ryan Hayes. Hayes was a Tackle at Michigan, but I felt like a kick inside to Guard was the way to go for him as a pro and after putting him through my system he came out as the top Guard. He's not the same type of player the Dolphins had been looking for a few years ago under the previous coaching staff (monster bulldozer types), I think he could surprise some people and earn a starting role early because he's a better fit in McDaniel's offense.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Score: -0.25 Grade: D
Favorite Pick: LB Dorian Williams (3rd round)
Outlook: Drafts like Buffalo's are the reason I'm going to spend some time figuring out the best way to do a weighted grading system to improve on things. I loved Buffalo's first three picks, it was their last three picks that brought them down. O'Cyrus Torrence will come in and compete for a starting Guard spot right off the bat, and Dorian Williams should be able to do the same at Linebacker. Williams was my favorite pick because they let Tremaine Edmunds leave (and sign a crazy big contract in Chicago), and they have a very good chance of replacing him with a third round pick.
Team: New York Jets
Score: -0.43 Grade: D
Love/Hate Pick: RB Israel Abanikanda (5th round)
Outlook: Another love/hate pick and for very similar reasons to why I listed Zach Charbonnet. The main difference is I don't have Breece Hall in my dynasty league. But the Breece Hall factor will weigh heavy into Abanikanda's value. I had really high hopes for Abanikanda and then he ended up in this situation, another one that killed me. I liked the Zach Kuntz pick in the 7th round. He's far more athletic than Conklin and Uzomah. I wouldn't expect him to take over the starting spot right away, but he could work towards that in a year or two.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Score: -0.88 Grade: F
Least Favorite Pick: Their entire Day 3
Outlook: Every single player they took on day 3 had an undrafted grade for me. The best of the bunch was Deuce Vaughn who should carve out a nice career as a returner and potential third down back provided he goes more the Darren Sproles route and less the Tarik Cohen route. Their day 1 and day 2 was ok. I thought they reached on Schoonmaker, but at an area of need, so the cost wasn't as bad.
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Score: -1.00 Grade: F
Favorite Pick: RB Bijan Robinson (1st round)
Outlook: I did say I like to avoid listing 1st round picks as my favorite pick, but they only made five picks and this is the only one I had strong feelings about. This probably should be a love/hate pick (I have Tyler Allgeier on my dynasty team), but I digress. Knowing what Derrick Henry did in Arthur Smith's offense makes me really excited for what Robinson is in store for, especially since he's a more complete back. Bergeron in the second round was the only other pick they didn't tank. I didn't see the immediate need for him though, so 2nd round was high, and I also view him as a project Tackle, so 2nd round was really high.
