Lance's 2023 Fantasy Sleepers: Quarterbacks

Reminder of the rules I set for myself on these:

-For my “top” pick and my “3 others” they have to actually be sleepers.

-For the rookie it has to be someone that wasn’t taken in the first round, and isn’t actively being hyped up by analysts. Quarterback is usually the exception with the first round rule because typically the only ones that have a shot at starting are drafted in the first round.

-For the dark horse it has to be someone so far down most people's boards that they forgot that player even exists, or at least that’s the case for RBs, WRs and TEs. For QBs and Defenses it just has to be someone you’ll typically find in the 20-32 range, and if they’re not being talked about or being talked about negatively then that’s a bonus!

I’d consider it a successful pick if my “top” pick finishes top ten, my 3 others finish top 15, and my rookie and dark horse finish top 20. Last year I didn't do so hot, but I almost nailed all of my proceed with caution picks which you'll probably see next week. I've changed how I do my rankings and I'm hoping that will lead to an improvement here. Alright, enough of that, here are my QB sleepers:

Top: Deshaun Watson (Cleveland)

If you're unwilling to go QB in the first three rounds and subsequently miss out on Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Burrow, then snagging Watson in the 6th-8th round range might be your best option. That's where his current ADP sits. Watching him in those 6 starts at the end of last year was rough, but let's not forget he was basically just kicking off the rust at that point. He was easily a top five QB prior to everything that played out (him opting not to play for Houston and then the legal issues). He'd be a boom-or-bust pick, but one that I'd be willing to go after, and probably pair with a late-round sleeper.

3 Others: Derek Carr (New Orleans), Russell Wilson (Denver), Jared Goff (Detroit)

Carr's the perfect late round QB option for those that take a risky QB1, or like to wait at the position. He's in a system that plays to his strengths. He'll have Olave, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and hopefully a healthy Michael Thomas to throw to. And once Kamara's potential suspension is done, he'll have a solid backfield duo to lean on. There is the risk that he ends up taking a step back in his new home similar to what happened with Matt Ryan in Indy last year, but Ryan was 37, Carr is 32.

Wilson is a risky pick, especially if you believe the recent rumors that Stidham is outplaying him. I'm betting on Sean Payton here. Wilson is still a talented QB. It felt like last year was somewhat psychological mixed with poor play calling. Payton's offense will give him a chance to excel, that is if he can get out of his head.

Goff was a beast last year and his ADP is somewhat reflecting that. He was basically an afterthought on draft day last season and right now he's carrying a 10th round price. Still, 10th round is pretty low for a QB that finished top 10 at the position, that should have arguably better weapons this season, and that got his OC back.  

Rookie: None

The only two I'm really high on are Young and Stroud but since they went 1 and 2, I'm not listing them here. Stetson Bennett is a dark horse if you're wanting someone to put on your watch list. If Stafford's injury lingers, or causes problems during the season then Bennett should get a shot to prove himself and I like the fit with McVay. However, that relies on an injury and I'm not willing to bet money on that.

Dark Horse: Sam Howell (Washington)

Washington's QB situation so far this offseason has gone from "they signed Jacoby Brissett, that's their starter", to "well I guess Howell has a shot", to "Howell could surprise people" said in whispers, and hushed tones. Howell was a 5th round pick. He also plays on one of the most poorly run franchises of this century. Neither of those factors will keep him from excelling, though they're the two main reasons he's being overlooked. He was a stud at North Carolina who had a down year in his final season after all of the offensive talent around him went pro the year before. With Washington he's got McLaurin, Dotson, Samuel, and one of the better pass catching backs in the league (Gibson). He's surrounded by talent and let's not forget he can run the ball too. The biggest question will be how well his O-Line holds up.