Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers 2023

This part of the explanation is the same in all the articles, so if you've read a previous one you can skip down to just above where my picks begin.

-For my “top” pick and my “3 others” they have to actually be sleepers.

-For the rookie it has to be someone that wasn’t taken in the first round, and isn’t actively being hyped up by analysts. Quarterback is usually the exception with the first round rule because typically the only ones that have a shot at starting are drafted in the first round.

-For the dark horse it has to be someone so far down most people's boards that they forgot that player even exists, or at least that’s the case for RBs, WRs and TEs. For QBs, Kickers and Defenses it just has to be someone you’ll typically find in the 20-32 range, and if they’re not being talked about or being talked about negatively then that’s a bonus!

I’d consider it a successful pick if my “top” pick finishes top 20, my 3 others finish top 30, and my rookie and dark horse finish top 48. Last year I mostly butchered this, though my Top pick got hurt (Javonte Williams). Etienne was one of my "3 others" and he finished top 20, and my dark horse, Eno Benjamin, narrowly missed a top 48 finish. Alright, enough of that, here are my RB sleepers:

Top: Rachaad White (Tampa Bay)

Fournette is gone and the Bucs made no big moves at the position, so all signs point to White taking on the lead back role. The Bucs aren't going to be a good team this year, and they're likely to end up in lots of passing situations because of that, but that works well for White too. Last season he saw 56 targets and 50 receptions as Fournette's backup. If he sees numbers similar to that, plus the carries that Fournette had last year than he'll be in for a big volume season which carries a lot of weight in fantasy land.

3 Others: Miles Sanders (Carolina), Samaje Perine (Denver), Damien Harris (Buffalo)

Sanders is the RB1 in Carolina and is being taken in the late 5th to early 6th. That's outrageous. Last year he was the RB13 in fantasy football and that was with Hurts stealing carries from him. 1) Bryce Young can run the ball, but that's not his first instinct. 2) Reich has shown he likes to use one primary ball carrier. And 3) Coaches use the run game to take pressure off their rookie QBs, it's a thing, and it's the thing that could push Sanders into the top 10.

We have no timeline on Javonte Williams' recovery, but if it's anything like J.K. Dobbins then we probably won't see Williams until November. If Denver was smart about it they would keep him out longer. As of right now the Broncos have not added any of the veteran backs out there which makes Perine their RB1. I would expect them to bring one in once they have a better idea on when Williams will be back, but until then Perine could be an early season starter in your lineup with the cost being a 10th round pick.

A lot of the talk in Buffalo's backfield has surrounded James Cook. That's not a sure thing though. Buffalo signed Damien Harris knowing what they were getting after having faced him several times over the last three years. Last year he was banged up and that cost him the starting job in New England, but let's not forget that he had 15 touchdowns and was just shy of 1,000 yards on the ground two years ago. Cook should for sure be the receiving back, and Harris is likely to lose goal line touches to Allen, but 900 yards and 8 touchdowns would still have been a borderline top 30 finish a year ago.

Rookie: Roschon Johnson (Chicago)

There are several options for this list: DeWayne McBride was a 7th round pick by Minnesota that was incredibly efficient at UAB and should definitely earn significant playing time with Cook gone. Chase Brown was a sneaky good 5th round pick by Cincy and with the concerns surrounding Joe Mixon we could see a timeshare backfield with the Bengals this season as they fight to get back to the Super Bowl. Deuce Vaughn and Devon Achane offer receiving upside in their offenses. Kendre Miller offers short-term upside if Kamara gets suspended. Eric Gray is a good handcuff option for the injury prone Saquon Barkley. And I love Tank Bigsby's potential in Jacksonville because of Etienne's fumbling problems. But none of them have as clear of a shot as Roschon Johnson does. He'll have to compete with Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman, those names aren't as big of a deal as Mixon, Kamara, Barkley and Etienne. He also has a lot of tread on his tires (he carried the ball less than 400 times over his four seasons at Texas), and he's a bigger back with decent athleticism. It'll probably start out as a committee, but one that Johnson could take over before the end of the year.

Dark Horse: Kenneth Gainwell (Philadelphia)

This will hinge on Philly not bringing in Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt. If that doesn't happen then Gainwell has the most injury direct route to large playing time during the season. D'Andre Swift is going to start, but he's never played a full season, and the highest number of touches he's seen in a season was 213. Last year Sanders, Scott and Gainwell accounted for over 400 touches total. The other back the Eagles brought in this offseason was Rashaad Penny, and everyone knows the injury history that exists there. Now, I don't like to predict injuries, and if Swift and Penny decide this is the year they hold it together, then this pick will look really bad, but I think the odds are in my favor.