Lance's 2023 Fantasy Sleepers: Tight Ends
This part of the explanation is the same in all the articles, so if you've read a previous one you can skip down to just above where my picks begin.
-For my “top” pick and my “3 others” they have to actually be sleepers.
-For the rookie it has to be someone that wasn’t taken in the first round, and isn’t actively being hyped up by analysts. Quarterback is usually the exception with the first round rule because typically the only ones that have a shot at starting are drafted in the first round.
-For the dark horse it has to be someone so far down most people's boards that they forgot that player even exists, or at least that’s the case for RBs, WRs and TEs. For QBs, Kickers and Defenses it just has to be someone you’ll typically find in the 20-32 range, and if they’re not being talked about or being talked about negatively then that’s a bonus!
I’d consider it a successful pick if my “top” pick finishes top 10, my 3 others finish top 15, and my rookie and dark horse finish top 24. Last year David Njoku was one of my "3 others" and he finished top 15. Everyone else pretty much flopped. Alright, enough of that, here are my TE sleepers:
Top: Tyler Higbee (LA Rams)
Cooper Kupp is still around, but the other two projected starting Receivers are Ben Skowronek and Van Jefferson. In other words, Higbee could very well be the second most targeted player in this offense, an offense that I believe is going to have to throw the ball a lot. Top ten finish should be easy enough.
3 Others: Juwan Johnson (New Orleans), Chigoziem Okonkwo (Tennessee), Mike Gesicki (New England)
I list Juwan Johnson, but really it's whichever guy wins the starting job for the Saints. It's a pretty Tight End friendly offense, and Carr is coming from an offense that featured the position. I could see Johnson or Moreau finishing in the top ten at TE.
I've read mixed projections on Okonkwo. The Titans aren't good enough defensively to be able to run, run, run the ball and only throw it 20-25 times a game. And based on Tennessee's current Receivers Okonkwo could very well be the highest targeted player on the team (if they land D-Hop that will of course change).
Gesicki was a very interesting signing by the Pats since they tried this with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith just two years ago. This time they'll have Bill O'Brien calling the shots again (he was the OC in 2011 when Aaron Hernandez had over 500 yards and 6 scores, while Rob Gronkowski put up 1300 yards and 17 touchdowns). As long as the Pats don't win the D-Hop sweepstakes then I think we'll see a lot of two Tight End sets with Gesicki and Henry. Not to mention, Gesicki is more athletic than a good portion of New England's current Receivers, so they could choose to use him as a mismatch on the outside at times.
Rookie: Michael Mayer (Las Vegas)
I don't usually like rookie Tight Ends. This position tends to struggle when they get to the pros, the transition ends up being difficult and many of them don't usually pan out until their second contract. Mayer should have every opportunity to not fall into that category. He's in an offense that likes using their Tight Ends. He has a Quarterback that likes throwing to his Tight Ends. And his biggest competition is Austin Hooper. I could see Mayer finishing with Pat Freiermuth type rookie numbers (around 500 yards and 6-7 touchdowns).
Dark Horse: Jelani Woods (Indianapolis)
If you read any of my draft related articles prior to the draft then you know my thoughts on Anthony Richardson. Fortunately, Richardson is a rookie and the biggest concern with his game is accuracy. The easiest ways to help with accuracy issues is to get the QB into a rhythm to build confidence (usually targeting his outlets, i.e. TE, RB and the slot), and giving him a big target to throw to (Woods is 6'7" with 34 1/8" arms). It's worth noting that athletic QBs, such as Richardson, don't throw a lot of passes to their RBs. The opportunity for an improved second season is definitely there for Woods.