Lance's 2023 Fantasy Sleepers: Wide Receivers
This part of the explanation is the same in all the articles, so if you've read a previous one you can skip down to just above where my picks begin.
-For my “top” pick and my “3 others” they have to actually be sleepers.
-For the rookie it has to be someone that wasn’t taken in the first round, and isn’t actively being hyped up by analysts. Quarterback is usually the exception with the first round rule because typically the only ones that have a shot at starting are drafted in the first round.
-For the dark horse it has to be someone so far down most people's boards that they forgot that player even exists, or at least that’s the case for RBs, WRs and TEs. For QBs, Kickers and Defenses it just has to be someone you’ll typically find in the 20-32 range, and if they’re not being talked about or being talked about negatively then that’s a bonus!
I’d consider it a successful pick if my “top” pick finishes top 20, my 3 others finish top 30, and my rookie and dark horse finish top 48. Last year went poorly (I did a lot better with my proceed with caution picks). Gabe Davis was one of my "3 others" and he was the only one I listed that met the criteria (he finished top 30). Alright, enough of that, here are my WR sleepers:
Top: Christian Kirk (Jacksonville)
Kirk was the WR11 last year and yet somehow he's the 28th Receiver taken...below Calvin Ridley. Ridley hasn't played in a year and a half, Kirk already has a rapport built with Lawrence. You guys are going about this all wrong. All signs point to Lawrence taking another step forward. Having Ridley around will only make Kirk more dangerous.
3 Others: Romeo Doubs (Green Bay), Jerry Jeudy (Denver), Michael Thomas (New Orleans)
When I post my rankings in a couple weeks you'll see I have Christian Watson much higher than Doubs, but that could easily reverse. Doubs was Jordan Love's go to guy last preseason, and the current smoke is that he's been Love's go to guy this offseason. There's some unknowns in there like how good is Love going to be? Or, can their defense play well enough that they can be a run first offense? All that aside, I've got him listed here because I believe he could finish top 30, which would be a steal considering his current ADP is 159th, which is undrafted in 10 team - 15 round leagues.
There's some caution being extended to Jeudy, probably because of Russell Wilson. Jeudy is coming off his best season though, and that was 972 yards and 6 scores despite how poor Denver's offense was last season. They should be better off under Sean Payton this year and since Jeudy was WR21 last year, that would make him at the very least a WR2 on any fantasy team this year.
How far are you willing to buy into the hype and nostalgia? The last two years we've heard that Thomas was ready to go! And the last two years he's let us down (some more than others, huh Bryar?). Once again we're hearing he's good to go, and there is that nostalgia aspect, he does own the single-season reception record after all. He's currently going in the 11th-12th round range, so why not grab him in the 10th? If it doesn't work out you're out a WR4, or maybe a WR6 for some of you Receiver-happy drafters. If it does work out you could be looking at a top 20 Receiver.
Rookie: Jonathan Mingo (Carolina)
Bryce Young is going to need a WR1. I love Adam Thielen, but his WR1 days are behind him. Terrace Marshall has yet to show he can be a consistent starter, and D.J. Chark is inconsistent and an injury risk. So why not Mingo? He's big, strong, and pretty athletic. This could be the start to a beautiful hookup.
Dark Horse: John Metchie (Houston)
Another rookie. Houston's Receiving situation is one to watch this preseason. They've got veterans Robert Woods, Noah Brown and Nico Collins. Woods is past his prime, he'll be a solid outlet, but he's not a WR1. Brown is barely a WR3, he's more of a solid rotational option. And Collins is the one everyone is talking up as their WR1, but he's done absolutely nothing to demonstrate he's capable of taking on that role. That leaves Metchie, and rookies Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. Personally, that would be my starting three if I was running the offense. There's going to be bumps with a rookie QB anyway, so why not let all of these youngsters grow with Stroud? Probably won't be the case though. Dell is likely to rotate into the slot with Woods limiting his opportunities. I think Hutchinson is more talented than Brown and Collins, but being a 6th round pick he'd need to blow away the coaching staff this preseason to be anything more than a rotational piece. Metchie on the other hand looked like a WR1 coming out of college. He's reportedly fully healthy and ready to go too, and DeMeco Ryans should know enough about the fellow Alabama alumni to trust him in this kind of role. He's a great route runner with pretty reliable hands, so Stroud should be able to trust him as well. But again, keep an eye on Houston's preseason. Whichever guy seems to come out as Stroud's go-to-guy you should consider taking in the later rounds.
