Lance's 2023 Hype Mock Draft v1.0
For my Hype mock drafts I look at draft rumors, top-30 visits for each team, past drafts for GMs and Head Coaches, and an analytical approach I created. Last year I got 7 picks right, 4 of which were taken by the same team at the same pick and 3 of which went to the same team but at a different pick (either due to trade or otherwise). Two years ago I got 12 picks right, 10 of which were taken at the same pick, and 2 of which went to the same team but at a different pick. I feel like there are far fewer rumors in the mill than the last two years though, so we'll see if I'm able to do better than last year:
1) Carolina Panthers (via Chicago)
Pick: QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
Reason: Rumor has it a majority of Carolina's front office loves Young. Depending on how they are processing the cognitive test news will determine if Stroud is still supposedly Reich's guy. I don't believe they'll shock us all and take one of the project QBs (Richardson and Levis).
2) Houston Texans
Pick: QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
Reason: There's been some recent talk of the Texans taking Will Anderson here and waiting on a QB. Based on what the Texans have done this offseason I'm gonna say that's smoke. They went decently big in free agency trying to improve one of the most talentless rosters in football. To me that signals Ryans and company want to win now, they don't want to hope next year presents them with someone better. Stroud gives them a chance to win now.
3) **TRADE** Tennessee Titans (via Arizona)
Pick: QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
Reason: The steam surrounding the Titans wanting to trade up to three seems to be picking up, so I'm buying into it. They jump in front of their rival and grab Richardson.
4) Indianapolis Colts
Pick: CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
Reason: With the guys that are widely viewed as the top three QBs off the board some might think the pick here would be Levis. But there have been some rumors around Levis tumbling because of his interviews. Personally, when I look at Levis I see Drew Lock. A player with a big arm that was getting a lot of first round buzz before the draft but ultimately slid into the second round. The Colts stay put and boost their secondary.
5) Seattle Seahawks (via Denver)
Pick: DL Jalen Carter (Georgia)
Reason: There's a buzz that Seattle wants Richardson and that they're willing to move up for him. I really believe that buzz is coming from Seattle's front office, but I think it's meant to get someone else to move up and increase their chances to land Carter. Or maybe it's so they can increase the value of their pick if Richardson slides.
6) **TRADE** Green Bay Packers (via NY Jets)
Pick: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Reason: Might look weird seeing two division rivals pull a trade like this, but Detroit did the reverse to this trade with the Vikings last season, so I don't believe it would be all that unlikely. After the Rodgers trade the Packers have some extra leverage to move up the board and they get in front of Atlanta to ensure they land JSN.
7) Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Edge Will Anderson (Alabama)
Reason: There was buzz that the Raiders wanted to move up to three for Richardson, but recently I've seen that Vegas doesn't want to sell the farm to move up. I think they stick and take whichever player falls due to the push for QBs. Anderson would be an absolute steal here.
8) Atlanta Falcons
Pick: CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
Reason: Rumor has it the Falcons would love to land one of the top two QBs in the class...duh. However, I (still) believe Young and Stroud go 1 and 2, so Atlanta instead elects to go Corner. They did just add Okudah via trade, but it was a low risk trade and he's not a lock to shore up the spot opposite Terrell.
9) **TRADE** Houston Texans (via CHI/CAR)
Pick: Edge Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
Reason: I'd like to think that the rumor that the Texans would be willing to trade back up from 12 for a QB should they opt for Will Anderson at 2 would also apply to them trading back up for an Edge should they go QB instead. Wilson isn't at Anderson's level, but he has the potential to get there.
10) **TRADE** Pittsburgh Steelers (via PHI/NO)
Pick: OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
Reason: I've seen a lot of talk about Pitt wanting a Corner, but I'm working off the fact that last year Tomlin spent a lot of time watching the QBs at the Senior Bowl before Pitt was the only team to select one in the first round. This year Tomlin reportedly spent a lot of time focused on the O-Line. Rumor has it Jones will be the first Tackle off the board and a potential top ten pick. Plus, we've seen fairly recently that Pitt is willing to trade up for a player they love (i.e. Devin Bush).
11) **TRADE** Arizona (via Tennessee)
Pick: CB Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
Reason: If Arizona were to stay at three I think the pick would still be Corner. However, a trade down to 11 allows them to stockpile draft capital and still land a player that's widely viewed as a top Corner in the draft. (In other words, I don't believe, and I don't think anyone else believes, that three Corners will go in the top ten, so they should be able to land Gonzalez, Witherspoon or Porter, and potentially have their pick between two.)
12) **TRADE** Chicago Bears (via HOU/CLE)
Pick: Edge Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
Reason: The belief is that the Bears want Jalen Carter at 9 and if he's gone they'll look to trade down again. Moving down to 12 still allows them to grab one of the top players left to improve their D-Line.
13) **TRADE** Detroit Lions (via GB/NYJ)
Pick: DL Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh)
Reason: I believe Detroit wants Jalen Carter, so with him off the board at 5, I think they trade out of the top ten, but remain in position to draft Kancey (who is my top Defensive Lineman).
14) New England Patriots
Pick: LB Jack Campbell (Iowa)
Reason: The belief seems to be that the Patriots will go Receiver. I feel like they will opt for a Corner or Linebacker given Belichick's track record with early Receiver draft picks. Having said that, if JSN falls to 14 the Pats could pull the trigger, especially since he looks like a perfect fit for their offense. In this mock though, JSN is gone, so the Pats go Linebacker.
15) New York Jets (GB)
Pick: OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
Reason: The Jets continue their "fix the offense for Rodgers" task with a new Left Tackle. Becton has been solid when healthy, but that's been few and far between. Johnson allows them to shore up the position.
16) **TRADE** Buffalo Bills (via Washington)
Pick: WR Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Reason: Two things at work with this trade: One, I've been seeing Buffalo wants to move up specifically for a Receiver (rumored to be Johnston), and two, I've seen that the Commanders would be willing to move down for the right price.
17) **TRADE** Philadelphia Eagles (via Pittsburgh)
Pick: RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Reason: I'm buying that the Eagles like Robinson. Trading down seven spots would allow them to gather some picks and stay in front of other teams that are supposedly interested in him (Tampa Bay, the Chargers and their division rival, Dallas). The latest rumor I've seen on Robinson is he could go as high as 8, and shouldn't go any later than 20.
18) Detroit Lions
Pick: TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
Reason: This is a little off the cuff. They could use a boost at Tight End (though Brock Wright wasn't all that bad of an option after the Hockenson trade), and it would fit with the M.O. they used last year (one player to improve their front seven, and a new target for Goff).
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: OL Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
Reason: Left Tackle has to be the highest priority on their list. I believe Skoronski can start at Tackle as a pro, and he may even allow the Bucs to play around with their starting O-Line a little (i.e. moving Wirfs to the left side if they feel that transition would benefit them).
20) Seattle Seahawks
Pick: WR Josh Downs (North Carolina)
Reason: This one is going to cause quite a few eyebrow raises, so hear me out. I realize that based on everyone else's take Downs is not the top WR available at this point (though he is #1 on my board). The Seahawks don't usually go by majority rule though. They took Rashaad Penny in the first round over Sony Michel, when most people didn't view Penny as a first rounder and had Michel as the #2 RB in that draft. They took Jordyn Brooks in the first round over Patrick Queen, same type of situation. Most people believe Downs is a second round pick, and that Addison, Hyatt or Flowers would be the best available at this point, but the Seahawks aren't most people.
21) Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: WR Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)
Reason: Hyatt adds another downfield threat for Herbert, helping open up the offense even more.
22) Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Edge Myles Murphy (Clemson)
Reason: David Ojabo should be ready to go this year, and they do have Oweh, so sticking them with an Edge in the first was a tough choice to make. Murphy is viewed as a potential high teens pick though, plus, the Ravens could use another player for their pass rushing rotation, and they need to do better at getting to the QB. Not to mention, what if Ojabo suffers a setback? Torn Achilles tend to have a long term impact.
23) Minnesota Vikings
Pick: CB Deonte Banks (Maryland)
Reason: Somewhat wishful thinking? I've seen the buzz that the Vikings could go Addison, or Hooker, or Levis. Hooker and Levis would be picked for what they could provide next year, Corner and Receiver are needs right now. With Flores running the defense the Vikings need a guy that can be a CB1 in his system. I like Banks a lot. I've also seen a lot of buzz that he could go in the teens, so a move up might be necessary if they view him as their guy.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: DB Brian Branch (Alabama)
Reason: Branch could lineup at Safety for the Jags or kick down and play the slot. The Jags continue their defensive overhaul.
25) New York Giants
Pick: WR Jordan Addison (USC)
Reason: It's really not a secret that the Giants are heavily invested in this Receiver class. From what I've read they've basically met with every top Receiver prospect in one way or another. That's why I think they stay put and take whichever one falls to them. In this case, that's Addison.
26) Dallas Cowboys
Pick: DL Bryan Bresee (Clemson)
Reason: Dallas could be unpredictable in this one. A surprise pick could be Marvin Mims, but Bresee strikes me as a Jerry Jones kind of guy. Loads of potential, but also a low floor.
27) **Trade** Washington Commanders (via Buffalo)
Pick: OT Darnell Wright (Tennessee)
Reason: I think O-Line is the pick for the Commanders regardless of who it is at this point. Wright would slide in at Right Tackle and allow Cosmi to move inside to Guard.
28) Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: TE Darnell Washington (Georgia)
Reason: The experts seem to be all over the place with the Bengals, which means I could go in a lot of different directions, so let me open my explanation with this: Irv Smith has not been and will not be the answer for anyone at Tight End. Washington is a monster with freakish athleticism, just another target for Burrow to grow with.
29) New Orleans Saints (via DEN/Miami/SF)
Pick: OG O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida)
Reason: Moving on from Andrus Peat is a must (the guy has played less than 900 total snaps in the past two seasons combined). They should've never given him the contract they did back in 2020 and because of that he carries an exorbitant $20 million dead cap hit if they cut him this year. But they also can't rely on him. Adding the top OG prospect would allow them to prepare for the inevitable.
30) Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: OL Dawand Jones (Ohio State)
Reason: Jones provides two things for the Eagles, he provides depth at Right Tackle, and a potential starter at Guard to replace Seumalo. From what I've been seeing, Jones' draft stock has slipped. I'm not entirely sure why, but end of the first round still seems like a solid landing spot to me.
31) Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: WR Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
Reason: Last year the Chiefs opted not to go Receiver in the first, I don't think that will be the case this year. Some might think I'm crazy for putting Mims here instead of Flowers, but I believe Mims is the better fit for the Chiefs.