Lance's 2023 NFL Season Predictions
Over the last few years I've used this section at the beginning to do a tall tale Super Bowl with two big underdogs finding their way to the big game. It's usually pretty fun to write out, but I'm not feeling it this year, so I'm just gonna jump into my predictions.
Super Bowl Prediction
Cincinnati Bengals over Philadelphia Eagles
Reason: By my numbers the Super Bowl matchup with the highest percent chance of happening is Buffalo vs Dallas (38.88). However, based on a separate formula, Dallas doesn't have a great chance of making the playoffs (just a 34.27%, 9th highest in the NFC and 21st overall). So, I looked over the list of potential Super Bowls and landed on this one which comes in at 36.83% chance, fifth highest, third highest once I eliminated teams that had a low chance of making the playoffs. I'll re-run the numbers after every team has played 9 games this season and see how it's looking. (For reference, by my numbers last year my preseason pick would've been Kansas City vs San Fran, and my post week 9 pick was KC vs Philly, which was the fourth highest possibility on my preseason list)
Super Bowl Betting
With all of the possible SB combinations between all of the teams that remained viable options there are a few that have pleasant betting odds if you're looking to place a small bet now, with the chance for a big payout come February. My favorite is Cincinnati vs Detroit (+5500). If you're looking for a real longshot go with Cincinnati vs Minnesota (+8000), though out of all 41 matchup combinations that one ranks 23rd (12th out of 12 once I eliminated teams that had a low chance of making the playoffs, you can find all 12 at the bottom of this article). **All betting odds were pulled from FanDuel**
Super Bowl I Would Love To See
Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions
Reason: This one is easy enough to explain. They're two franchises that have spent most of their tenure at the bottom of the league. By my numbers there is a 0% chance that this Super Bowl happens. However, both of these teams have the talent to prove my system wrong and make this happen. I think Detroit is a season or two away from being a legitimate contender (another year of growth for their young talent and a season of gelling for their incoming additions). Cleveland is a 50/50 team this season. Either Watson is going to find his previous form and this team is playoff bound, or Watson struggles again and this team is picking top ten with an all knew coaching staff. Either way, I don't think they're in a position to upend Kansas City, Cincinnati or Buffalo when the playoffs roll around. If this matchup were to happen, I wouldn't root for one particular team, I'd just hope for a great game.
AWARDS
MVP Prediction
My Pick: QB Joe Burrow (Cincinnati)
Why: I think Cincy ends up with the best record in the AFC, and I think Burrow leads the way in most of the major stat categories for Quarterbacks. If those line up then he's heading home with this hardware.
Biggest Competition: QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City)
Why: He's the favorite and for as long as he keeps playing at the level we've become accustomed to I don't think we'll see too many years where he won't be the favorite.
Dark Horse: WR Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)
Why: Receivers don't win this award. No position outside of Quarterback wins this award anymore, so any non-QB is automatically a dark horse. I saw that Tyreek Hill is predicting he's in for the first ever 2,000 yard receiving season. Personally, I think Jefferson pushes for it with Chase having the second best shot at it. I'm not sure either one, or anyone, will get to that mark this year, but I'd give them the best odds and if someone can hit that mark they could (should) unseat the top QB for MVP.
Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: WR Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)
Why: Read what I said above.
Biggest Competition: WR Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati)
Why: He's tied with Jefferson as the favorite and like I said above, I would give Chase the second best odds of getting to 2,000 receiving yards this year.
Dark Horse: RB Najee Harris (Pittsburgh)
Why: If Harris has as big of a season as I'm predicting he'll be right in the mix here. And with him currently sitting at +20,000 for his odds to win he's an excellent bet to throw a small bet on ($20 would net you something like $4,000?).
Defensive Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: LB Roquan Smith (Baltimore)
Why: Last year he totaled 169 tackles, 3 picks and 5 sacks. This year he'll have had an entire offseason working in this defense and should be even more prepared to dominate. With the amount of attention sacks and pressures get it's really difficult for off-ball Linebackers to win this award now days (Luke Kuechly in 2013 was the last one to do it), but I wouldn't count out Smith.
Biggest Competition: Edge Micah Parsons (Dallas)
Why: Parsons is the current favorite, and I get why. With him reportedly moving into a full-time Edge Rusher role his chances to increase his sack and pressure totals is high.
Dark Horse: LB Fred Warner (San Francisco)
Why: Warner is a very talented Linebacker and anyone who watches football knows his name. What makes him a dark horse for this award is playing on the same defensive unit as Nick Bosa. If Bosa is healthy he's going to cast a shadow over Warner. I expect this defense to finish first this year and Warner will be one of the big reasons why, he'll have to outplay his counterpart though if we're going to hear his name mentioned for this award at the end of the year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
My Pick: QB Bryce Young (Carolina)
Why: Young has a lot going for him when it comes to winning this award. First, he's a Quarterback they automatically gain favoritism when it comes to the awards. Second, he's the #1 pick and now days that basically guarantees you're starting week 1 (he has already been named the week 1 starter). And third, he's efficient. In his two years starting at Alabama he had a 6.7-1 TD-INT ratio, he had a 65.6 completion rate and he average 8.8 YPA. In his final season he pretty much maintained those numbers (6.4-1 TD-INT, 64.5 comp rate, 8.8 YPA) despite having arguably the worst Receiving corps in recent memory at Alabama. If any of the rookie QBs are best suited to succeed immediately it's him and despite his size it's easy to see why the Panthers took him at 1.
Biggest Competition: RB Bijan Robinson (Atlanta)
Why: Running Backs transition to the NFL the easiest and Robinson is guaranteed to see a lot of work immediately, so it's easy to see why he's the favorite. His ability to work in both the run and pass game is going to make it difficult for anyone to beat him including the QBs. The competition for this award this year kind of reminds me of the Mayfield/Barkley competition back in 2018. The difference is Young should start week 1, whereas Mayfield didn't start until halftime of week 3.
Dark Horse: RB Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville)
Why: Like I said with Robinson, the transition is easiest for this position. Bigsby has been having a phenomenal camp and preseason, and I wouldn't count him out in just because Etienne is there.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
My Pick: CB Emmanuel Forbes (Washington)
Why: Forbes does a good job of getting his hands on the ball and when he does get ahold of the ball he has a knack for finding the endzone. Sacks are the flashy stat everyone loves when it comes time for the awards, but pick sixes could put Forbes over the top.
Biggest Competition: Edge Will Anderson Jr. (Houston)
Why: Anderson would absolutely be my pick if he wasn't the favorite. He's a monster and I could see him pushing for the rookie sack record (14.5 by Jevon Kearse in 1999). That in itself would be enough to win this award.
Dark Horse: DL Calijah Kancey (Tampa Bay)
Why: If Kancey is even remotely close to the Aaron Donald comparisons he was receiving heading into the draft then he'll of course be a frontrunner for DROY. Based on Tampa's current depth chart it looks like Kancey should get plenty of opportunities to stack his stats. And Tampa's defense is good enough to give him the opportunities to get the flashy stats (i.e. sacks and tackles for loss).
Comeback Player of the Year Prediction
My Pick: QB Russell Wilson (Denver)
Why: Wilson's coming off his worst season ever. 2022 was a disaster, but there's a shining light as he heads toward the 2023 season. That light's name is Sean Payton. If Payton can get him playing like his old self he'll be in consideration for this award.
Biggest Competition: DB Damar Hamlin (Buffalo)
Why: Hamlin's the favorite for this award for obvious reasons. If you didn't see the game live you almost certainly saw the replay of what happened with Hamlin. The fact that he could play this year is a miracle in itself. Hamlin's case for winning this award is similar to when Alex Smith returned in 2020. If he can get on the field (and he's already been on the practice field so that seems likely) this award is pretty much guaranteed to be his.
Dark Horse: WR John Metchie III (Houston)
Why: Technically Metchie hasn't played a down so comeback doesn't make a lot of sense, but that term is used loosely when it comes to this award. Metchie missed his rookie season because of an acute promyelocytic leukemia diagnosis, but now he's ready to go! If he wins a starting job he should see enough work to put himself in the limelight for CPOY.
Coach of the Year Prediction
My Pick: Frank Reich (Carolina)
Why: Everyone loves a comeback story. Reich was fired by the Colts in season last year only to end up with the Panthers this offseason. Carolina hasn't had a winning record since 2017. Personally, I think New Orleans wins the NFC South, but I also believe Carolina gets to 9 or 10 wins with a shot at the final wildcard spot, and if that happens Reich will be a front-runner for this award.
Biggest Competition: Dan Campbell (Detroit)
Why: Dan Campbell would have been my pick, but he's the favorite, so he goes here. We all know the numbers: Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since the 1991-92 season, they haven't been to the playoffs since 2016, they haven't won a division title since 1993, and they haven't had a double-digit win total since 2014. With the expectations that are there for the Lions this season it's pretty easy to see why Campbell is the favorite for this award.
Dark Horse: DeMeco Ryans (Houston)
Why: Everything the Texans did this offseason are giving Texans fans hope for the future and rightfully so. I'm predicting Houston finishes around the 5-6 win mark this year, but if their youth can all step up earlier than expected this could be a 9 win team. Nine wins would blow away most expectations, especially in Ryans' first year as a Head Coach, and give him a foundation to winning this award.
The 13 Potential Super Bowl Matchups by my Numbers:
1) Baltimore vs Detroit (38.64%)
2) Kansas City vs San Francisco (37.81%)
3) Cincinnati vs Philadelphia (36.83%)
4) Buffalo vs Philadelphia (36.48%)
5) Cincinnati vs San Francisco (35.41%)
6) Cincinnati vs Detroit (34.61%)
T7) Kansas City vs Detroit (34.25%)
T7) Buffalo vs Detroit (34.25%)
9) Baltimore vs Philadelphia (33.99%)
T10) Kansas City vs Minnesota (32.56%)
T10) Baltimore vs San Francisco (32.56%)
12) Buffalo vs Minnesota (32.30%)
13) Cincinnati vs Minnesota (31.58%)
