Lance's 2023 Week 1 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record Last Season: 161-108-2

Overall ATS Last Season: 38-38 (started this later in the season last year)

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Kansas City over Detroit (ATS: KC -6.5)

Last season, after week 1 ended with several surprises, I did a little analyzing and found that several of the surprises were in games where teams that didn't starter their QB1 AND either their WR1 or WR2 in the preseason lost to teams that did. Kansas City hasn't lost in week 1 since Mahomes took over and a big reason why is that they let their starters get some playing time in preseason, meanwhile teams that don't have any business sitting their starters (like Detroit) sit them anyway.

Carolina over Atlanta (ATS: CAR +3.5)

My numbers suggest Carolina covers the spread, and covering the spread at their numbers also favors them to win. It's risky taking the rookie QB in his first regular season game, but it's not like Ridder is a hardened veteran.

Baltimore over Houston (ATS: HOU +10)

Baltimore was one of two teams (out of 9) to sit their starters in preseason last year, play a team that didn't sit theirs, and still win. They were also the only ones to cover the spread out of the 9 (it was against the Jets). It's a very similar matchup against a team with a young starting QB, some concerns on offense and a potential up and coming defense. For that reason, I think Baltimore gets the win again, but they've got their own concerns on defense specifically with their secondary and pass rush, which is why I think Houston covers.

Cleveland over Cincinnati (ATS: CLE +2.5)

This one also falls into the sat vs started category, which was the same case for Cincy last season when they lost to Pitt in week 1. Cleveland pulls off a hard fought win.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis (ATS: JAX -4.5)

The Jags start out building on what they did last year by destroying Indy.

Minnesota over Tampa Bay (ATS: TB +6)

Another sat vs started game. The Bucs keep it close, but Minnesota ekes it out. The main storyline will be about how it's more of the same from what they did last year, but that will change as the starters get the rust off and get going again.

New Orleans over Tennessee (ATS: NO -3)

A no-brainer in my opinion. Tennessee isn't going to be half as good as everyone seems to think. Plus, this is a sat (Tennessee) vs started (New Orleans) game.

Pittsburgh over San Francisco (ATS: PIT +2.5)

A really good test for both teams starting out. How well will San Fran's O-Line hold up against Pitt's pass rush? Plus, can Pitt's offense continue the explosiveness they showed in preseason against one of the top defenses in the league? I picked Pittsburgh because that's how my numbers lineup, but I would suggest not betting on this game.

Washington over Arizona (ATS: WAS -7)

We all know Arizona is going to be bad this year and they should be really bad to start. I see this being a great confidence boost for Howell and the other various young starters across the Commanders lineup.

Green Bay over Chicago (ATS: GB +1.5)

A literal toss-up, I leaned in Green Bay's direction because Chicago's defense is a mess. Even with Love's limited experience, he, his young receivers and Green Bay's backfield should still be able to take advantage. Plus, I'm not high on Fields this season, and Green Bay has the defensive pieces to shut him down.

Denver over Las Vegas (ATS: LV +4)

The Sean Payton era kicks off with a win, and more importantly, Russell Wilson looks a hundred times better than he did week 1 last year. However, I think Vegas keeps it close, they lose by a field goal or less.

Miami over LA Chargers (ATS: MIA +3)

This is also a game that falls into the sat vs started category, which favors Miami, as do my numbers. One of those interesting, relatively even week 1 matchups that should be fun to watch.  

Philadelphia over New England (ATS: PHI -3.5)

Philly was the other team to win in week 1 last year after sitting their starters in preseason and playing against a team that started theirs. They failed to cover last year, but I have a hard time believing that will be the case again in this one.

Seattle over LA Rams (ATS: SEA -5.5)

Not only do the Rams strike me as potentially the worst team in the league this year, they also sat their starters in preseason (the usual for McVay). Last year they lost week 1 to Buffalo 31-10 at home in the first game of the season. Embarrassing, sure, but not as bad as I believe this one will be.

NY Giants over Dallas (ATS: NYG +3.5)

Your Quarterback throws double-digit interceptions in back to back years and gets progressively worse, yet you decide he doesn't need a tune up game before the regular season kicks off? Interesting choice Dallas. One that will help start you off on the wrong foot. (Another sat vs started game)

Buffalo over NY Jets (ATS: BUF -2.5)

The numbers favor the Jets slightly in my system, but I still like Buffalo more. I definitely wouldn't bet on this game though.

Four Game Parlay: If you're going to use FanDuel to place a four-game parlay I would definitely make sure Miami +3 was in your picks. The other three I'd personally choose would be Seattle -5.5, Tampa Bay +6, and NY Giants +3.5.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 0-0

QB Start: Sam Howell vs Arizona

As mentioned above, Arizona is going to be terrible to start. Their secondary is almost non-existent. Howell doesn't have to be superhuman, he just has to take advantage of all of the mismatches which shouldn't be difficult with McLaurin, Dotson and Samuel on his side.

QB Sit: Dak Prescott at NY Giants

Partially because I could see a lag coming due to him not seeing playing time in preseason, and partially because the Giants have a sneaky good defense. In his one start against the Giants last year he was held to 265 total yards and he threw two picks against two touchdowns. The Giants defense should be even better this year.

RB Record: 0-0

RB Start: Rachaad White at Minnesota

White isn't getting much week 1 love. Like I said above, I think Tampa keeps it close and close means they should never be in a position that they outright abandon the run. White should see plenty of touches against one of the bottom ten defenses in YPC allowed last year. He also has plenty to offer in the receiving game.

RB Sit: D'Andre Swift at New England

Philly's backfield is still not sorted out in a way we can feel comfortable with from a fantasy perspective, which alone should be reason enough to sit Swift. But if that's not enough to convince you, then go ahead and add on Hurts' rushing prowess and New England's top five defense in YPC allowed a year ago.

WR Record: 0-0

WR Start: Michael Thomas vs Tennessee

One thing Tennessee did really well last year: stop the run. One thing they did really poorly: stop the pass. No Kamara week 1 should mean more passes to the Receivers and Tight Ends. Olave should already be a lock in your starting lineup if you have him. If you were smart enough to take a flier on MT in the mid to late rounds, then you should be salivating at this matchup.

WR Sit: Marquise Brown at Washington

It might be tempting to look at Brown and think "well he's the unquestioned WR1, so plenty of targets will go his way". That would be the wrong attitude while Arizona tries to get their Quarterback situation figured out. They'll either be starting a rookie (Clayton Tune), or the recently acquired Josh Dobbs.

TE Record: 0-0

TE Start: Gerald Everett vs Miami

Beyond the obvious must starts at the position you want to look for someone who should see a good number of targets and isn't playing a stifling defense. I think Everett's situation best fits those requirements.

TE Sit: Greg Dulcich vs Las Vegas

It's a favorable matchup and Dulcich still seems to be the fantasy drafter's favorite in Denver, but Adam Trautman is listed as the TE1 in Denver's current depth chart and it's a busy group as is. Go a different direction if you can.

Defense Record: 0-0

Defense Start: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis

If Washington is available that's who I would suggest you pick up for the week, that's also who I would suggest starting for your Daily leagues. But they're also 67% rostered on Yahoo. The Jags are a close second on my suggested week 1 target list. They have a 27% rostered percentage on Yahoo. They also get to face a wildly inaccurate rookie passer and a Colts offense sans Jonathan Taylor.  

Defense Sit: Miami Dolphins at LA Chargers

Miami is rostered in 75% of Yahoo leagues, which is not something I understand. They were the 26th defense in fantasy last season with just 5.9 ppg. For those who are Jalen Ramsey chasing, he's hurt, and also why? Bonus, the Chargers offense averaged 23 ppg and were top five in offensive turnovers. If you're sack seeking, the Chargers O-Line is reportedly healthy and ready to go. That's a line that was banged up last year and still only gave up 39 sacks. I think Miami wins, but I don't believe it will be on the back of their defense.