Lance's 2023 Week 10 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 84-52
Overall ATS: 32-42
Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.
Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.
Chicago over Carolina (ATS: CHI -3.5)
My numbers are kind of split on this one, so I'll go with recency bias. The Bears hung with the Saints last week, while the Panthers got bulldozed by the Colts. And this week they're in Chicago in November.
Indianapolis over New England (ATS: IND -1.5)
You gotta hand it to Steichen who has Indy playing super competitively this season. If they can build off what they did defensively last week this will be a no-brainer.
Baltimore over Cleveland (ATS: BAL -6)
This should be a defensive battle, so I'm not all that confident in the -6 spread, but if Baltimore can follow a similar offensive path to what they used back in week 4, this should work out.
Cincinnati over Houston (ATS: HOU +6.5)
Houston's offense looked super good last week, the defense? Not so much. Burrow pulls out the win, but Stroud keeps the Texans from getting blown out.
Jacksonville over San Francisco (ATS: JAX +3)
Bye weeks are tricky to figure out. Some teams come out firing, while others look dazed. San Fran went into their bye on a three game losing streak, and the Jags went into it on a 5 game win streak. My numbers favor the Jags, so I'm running with that and the momentum.
Minnesota over New Orleans (ATS: MIN +2.5)
Look, my numbers favor the Vikings and I don't really have a reason not to go with them given New Orleans' up and down play this season. However, I'm going to suggest we wait a week before we start to believe that the Dobbs led Vikings are a real threat. He played an amazing game last week, but it's easier to catch a team by surprise when they spend the week game planning for the other QB.
Pittsburgh over Green Bay (ATS: PIT -3)
Love continues to struggle, which doesn't bode well when going against a defense like Pitt's.
Tampa Bay over Tennessee (ATS: TB -1.5)
People may not want to hear it, but Mayfield has been solid this season. He's a big reason why the Bucs have been competitive in just about every game they've played this season, including that shootout with the Texans last week. I'll take the savvy vet over Levis.
Arizona over Atlanta (ATS: ARI +1.5)
Murray is potentially back this week. There may be some rust there, but given how the Falcons are playing, I don't see that being too big of an issue. IF Murray doesn't play, then this pick flips to Atlanta.
Detroit over LA Chargers (ATS: DET -2.5)
If this turns into a shootout, like I have a feeling it will, I'll take the more well-rounded Lions.
Dallas over NY Giants (ATS: DAL -16.5)
It definitely looks like Tommy DeVito is going to be starting for the Giants in this one, so Dallas beating them by 17 or more shouldn't be an issue.
Seattle over Washington (ATS: WAS +6)
Seattle rebounds from that whooping they took last week, but Washington keeps it close enough to cover.
Las Vegas over NY Jets (ATS: LV +1.5)
It's difficult for an opponent to gameplan against a coach staffing that's making their first appearance calling the shots, which is what the Giants had to deal with last week (among other things). The Jets should be better prepared, but the gameplan the Raiders used last week, run the ball and rely on the defense, is the formula they can use to beat the Jets too.
Buffalo over Denver (ATS: DEN +7.5)
Did you know Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in five straight games? Three of those games have been large spreads too (7.5 or more). If Denver can build off what they did before their bye they should be able to cover, maybe even pull off the upset.
Four Game Parlay (1-4): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: CHI -3.5, DAL -16.5, WAS +6.5, DEN +7.5
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 11-7
QB Start: Geno Smith vs Washington
Smith has not been a great fantasy QB this season. However, Washington has only held three QBs to less than 20 fantasy points, Dobbs in week 1, Mac Jones last week, and Ridder back in week 6 but he scored 19 on them.
QB Sit: Dak Prescott vs NY Giants
Last week Vegas destroyed the Giants by relying on their defense and ground game, a similar gameplan the Cowboys could follow. The Giants haven't allowed a QB to score 20+ fantasy points on them since week 3, and that includes matchups against Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa since then.
RB Record: 6-12
RB Start: D'Onta Foreman/Khalil Herbert vs Carolina
Carolina is a great team to run against. If Herbert is back this week and isn't expected to be on a snap count, then he's my start, otherwise go with Foreman. I also wouldn't rule out starting Foreman even if Herbert is back.
RB Sit: Chuba Hubbard at Chicago
Sanders was a lot more efficient than Hubbard last week, which could lead to a decrease in touches for Hubbard. A lack of volume to go with inefficiency is a recipe for fantasy failure.
WR Record: 8-10
WR Start: Christian Kirk vs San Francisco
The Niners have allowed four Receivers to score 20+ this season, and four others to score between 11 and 14. Kirk has been the most consistent Receiver for the Jags this season.
WR Sit: Davante Adams vs NY Jets
It was pretty obvious last week that Aidan O'Connell isn't anything more than a game manager, which hurts his Receivers' potential, especially when going against a secondary like New York's.
TE Record: 10-8
TE Start: Dalton Schultz at Cincinnati
He's had 5 or more targets in each of his last four games. He's also scored in three of those games, and Cincinnati has allowed a Tight End to score 12+ fantasy points on them in back to back weeks.
TE Sit: David Njoku at Baltimore
It's a very unfavorable matchup, and I'm not sure we can fully trust that what Watson did this past week is going to hold up against a defense like Baltimore's.
Defense Record: 9-9
Defense Start: Seattle Seahawks vs Washington
The Commanders do have the ability to put up points, but they're also a good offense to rack up sacks and turnovers on. Seattle averages 3.3 sacks and 1.5 turnovers a game.
Defense Sit: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville
The Jags are middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing defense, so this sit is more based on the Niners. In order to hit the top 12 for fantasy defenses you're usually looking for 8 or more points, something SF has only done three times this year and one of those times they got exactly 8. Unless they made drastic changes during their bye, I don't see them dominating Jacksonville's offense.
