Lance's 2023 Week 11 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 94-56

Overall ATS: 43-45

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Cincinnati over Baltimore (ATS: CIN +3.5)

My numbers favor Cincy. Both of these teams showed some bad problems in their games last week, so I'll go with my numbers.

Dallas over Carolina (ATS: DAL -10.5)

This game is not likely to help Young with his confidence, but it is likely to help Dallas' defense stockpile more stats.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland (ATS: PIT -1.5)

My numbers say Cleveland and I was going to go with Cleveland even after the Watson news, but then the Browns announced DTR will be starting, so I'm switching to Pitt.

Detroit over Chicago (ATS: CHI +9.5)

My numbers favor Chicago to cover and Detroit to win. I could definitely see that happening based on how both teams have been playing, so I'll stick with it.

Green Bay over LA Chargers (ATS: GB +3)

This one will come down to whether or not Love can take advantage of the Chargers' bottom five pass defense (they allow the most pass yards/game, and they're top 10 in pass touchdowns allowed, so we'll say it evens out to bottom 5). I think he can, and I'll also give GB the mid-November, homefield advantage against the team from the warm weather state.

Houston over Arizona (ATS: ARI +4.5)

Arizona looked good last week with Murray back under Center, so covering definitely isn't out of the question. However, Stroud is playing like a veteran, leading two last minute game winning drives in back to back weeks, so I'm going with Houston to win again.

Jacksonville over Tennessee (ATS: JAX -6.5)

Jacksonville was embarrassed last week. Their defense is much better than that and they're going to demonstrate that on Tennessee's young QB.

Miami over Las Vegas (ATS: LV +11.5)

My numbers favor Vegas to cover, and if it weren't for how well their defense is playing I would laugh at that. But I think their defense can do enough to keep from getting completely destroyed...maybe just a 10 point loss.

Washington over NY Giants (ATS: WAS -9.5)

This seems like a very likely outcome in general and my numbers support it.

San Francisco over Tampa Bay (ATS: SAN -10.5)

Another high spread that my numbers favor the favorite to pull off. With the way San Fran played against Jacksonville last week I could definitely see it happening.

Buffalo over NY Jets (ATS: NYJ +6.5)

Ken Dorsey was definitely not the problem for Buffalo. Their offense is about to run into the Jets buzzsaw defense for the second time this season and I think it's going to go worse for them (hence a close game). But I think their own defense helps them get the win this time around.

Seattle over LA Rams (ATS: SEA -1)

The Rams were heading in a very bad direction before their bye (lost their last three by 7 or more). I just don't see the bye week as being enough to help them fix all their problems.

Denver over Minnesota (ATS: DEN -2.5)

I don't like it, but my numbers favor a Denver team that just pulled off back to back upsets over Kansas City and Buffalo.

Kansas City over Philadelphia (ATS: KC -2.5)

KC has one of the best defenses in the league right now, meanwhile the Eagles continue to struggle in coverage. This one definitely favors the Chiefs, as do my numbers.

Four Game Parlay (1-5): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: CIN +3.5, SAN +11.5, NYJ +6.5, KC +2.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 12-8

QB Start: Jordan Love vs LA Chargers

Love had a surprisingly decent performance against the Steelers this past week. This is a much easier defense to throw on, and with Herbert on the other side there's always a chance the game turns into a shootout.

QB Sit: Josh Allen vs NY Jets

The Jets have been the hardest team to pass on, and just two weeks ago they held Herbert to less than 10 fantasy points. I'm also not entirely sure what that was we saw on Monday night, but it was Allen's third worst fantasy performance of the season (his worst was week 1 against the Jets).

RB Record: 8-12

RB Start: Keaton Mitchell vs Cincinnati

He's been a fantasy starter the last two weeks despite the limited touches and Harbaugh said they plan to get him more involved this week.

RB Sit: Alexander Mattison at Denver

If Mattison plays it seems unlikely he'll see the same workload he has for most of the season. He's been incredibly inefficient with what he's been given, and Ty Chandler looked much more explosive last week. If Mattison can't go, I'll say sit Isiah Pacheco. Philly has the best run defense in the league and Pacheco has to compete with McKinnon for targets.

WR Record: 10-10

WR Start: Mike Evans at San Francisco

This should be a no-brainer, but he's outside the top 24 in projected points this week, so I'm picking on the Niners again. They haven't been great about shutting down opposing Receivers, and Evans has had 10+ points in 7 out of 9 games.

WR Sit: Marquise Brown at Houston

Not a matchup issue, a QB issue. Murray looked good in his return, but his chosen targets (Trey McBride and Rondale Moore) were a bit of a concern for Brown. It could've been because of who was covering Brown, but I'd suggest waiting a week or two for Murray to completely settle in.

TE Record: 11-9

TE Start: Cole Kmet at Detroit

I don't how Kmet isn't viewed as a projected top 12 fantasy Tight End this week. He has 25 targets in his last three games, Detroit is top ten in points allowed to the position, and with an opponent like Detroit, Chicago is likely to have to throw the ball to keep up.

TE Sit: Jake Ferguson at Carolina

If Kmet is going up into the top 12, then one of them has to fall out right? I'm going with Ferguson. He's scored in three straight games but the Panthers have only allowed one Tight End (Sam LaPorta) to score a touchdown on them this season, and no Tight End has reached 50 receiving yards yet.

Defense Record: 9-11

Defense Start: Washington Commanders vs NY Giants

Gotta pick on the Giants with the mess that is their offense right now. Washington's biggest weakness is their secondary, which isn't something the Giants are in a good position to take advantage of. Plus, the Giants have allowed 8+ fantasy points to opposing defenses in 8 of their 10 games.

Defense Sit: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City

Philly's biggest weakness is pass coverage, which opens up the door for Mahomes to have one of his best games of the season (he's only thrown for more than 310 yards once and 3+ touchdowns twice, so it's definitely not out of the question). Philly is 76% owned in Yahoo, if you're one of those owners and you don't have a second defense for this week, you may want to make a move.