Lance's 2023 Week 12 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 103-61

Overall ATS: 49-53

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Detroit over Green Bay (ATS: GB +7.5)

If Detroit plays like they did against Chicago they'll lose this one. Love is playing better, so I think the Packers cover, but Detroit corrects the turnover problem and pulls out the win.

Dallas over Washington (ATS: DAL -10.5)

Washington is such a difficult team to put your finger on. But Dallas is torching teams that they're able to get to the QB and force turnovers on, so I'll say they blow out the Commanders.

San Francisco over Seattle (ATS: SEA +7)

My numbers favor Seattle to cover, and since the teams in this division usually do a good job of making their divisional foe's lives miserable, I'm going to say that holds up. I just don't see them winning with the way these two are playing right now.

Miami over NY Jets (ATS: MIA -9.5)

Benching Zach Wilson in favor of Tim Boyle isn't going to set the Jets up to suddenly right the ship, sorry Jets fans. Fun stat, Boyle has started 3 games in his career, he's thrown at least one interception in each of those games, tallying 6 total in those games.

New Orleans over Atlanta (ATS: NO +1.5)

Everyone ready for an offensive shootout?! Ha, just kidding. I like New Orleans to keep hold on the lead in the AFC South.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati (ATS: PIT -1.5)

Tough draw for Jake Browning's first career start, Pitt's defense should feast. Bonus, a new OC for Pitt should at least keep Cincy guessing defensively.

Houston over Jacksonville (ATS: HOU +1.5)

This matchup of two young, up and coming teams is going to be one we look forward to every year going forward. My numbers favor Houston, and they're at home, so I'm going to give them the edge.

Indianapolis over Tampa Bay (ATS: IND -2.5)

A toss-up, both in my opinion and based on my numbers. I like Indy coming out of their bye to get the job done.

New England over NY Giants (ATS: NE -3.5)

We all know Belichick's history against rookie QBs. Tommy DeVito is in for a long day.

Carolina over Tennessee (ATS: CAR +4)

Neither offense really moves the needle and both defenses have the ability to lock down a team, so I'm going with my numbers which favor Carolina.

Arizona over LA Rams (ATS: ARI -1.5)

Arizona is a much better team with Murray under Center. They're playing better football, and they almost made it two straight wins last week against a tough Houston team. I like them at home against the division foe.

Denver over Cleveland (ATS: DEN -2.5)

In the Broncos last three wins they've forced 12 total turnovers while only giving the ball up twice. That's how they get the win here too, they force the rookie passer into bad decisions.

Kansas City over Las Vegas (ATS: LV +9.5)

K.C.'s offensive struggles aren't imaginative. Their ranks this year are: 14th in points for, 8th in total yards, 6th in pass yards, 14th in rush yards, but last year they were first in all of those categories except rush yards (20th despite averaging more than they are this year). That's what makes a spread like this one interesting when they're playing a defense that's 13th in PPG allowed and 11th in pass yards/game allowed. Raiders cover.

Philadelphia over Buffalo (ATS: PHI -3)

The Eagles run over the Bills.

Baltimore over LA Chargers (ATS: BAL -3.5)

This is a great matchup for the Chargers. Herbert isn't matchup proof, and the Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league. Plus, LAC has basically no defense, so it's fair game for the Ravens' "O".

Minnesota over Chicago (ATS: MIN -3.5)

My numbers favor Minnesota. However, Chicago typically plays the Vikings tough, so I'm not entirely sure I trust that 3.5 point spread. Regardless, I think the Dobbs experience carries the Vikings through.

Four Game Parlay (1-6): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: PIT -1.5, HOU +1.5, NE -3.5, PHI -3.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 13-9

QB Start: Brock Purdy at Seattle

Three straight games with at least 21 points for Purdy. Seattle's defense has been a bit sporadic this year, but I think the Niners offense is setup well to take care of them.

QB Sit: Justin Herbert vs Baltimore

Baltimore has allowed one passer to score 18+ on them (two if you count the Burrow/Browning combo from last week). Herbert should be benched this week.

RB Record: 9-13

RB Start: Jerome Ford at Denver

Denver is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing Running Backs this year. Ty Chandler just put up over 100 total yards on them. Ford has been much more efficient than Hunt, so I'd bank on him doing more with the touches he gets.

RB Sit: James Conner vs LA Rams

He's still getting the touches, so if you want to trust him I won't fight you. However, in the two games since he's been back his highest yardage total was 73 and he hasn't scored.

WR Record: 12-10

WR Start: Diontae Johnson at Cincinnati

Several reasons behind this. First, a new OC is going to want to prove what he can do and to go with that, a new playcaller makes it more difficult for an opposing defense to prepare. Second, Pitt just played two tough pass defenses in back to back weeks which hurt Johnson's value, but Cincy is middle of the field in that area. And third, Johnson is still seeing a solid number of targets.

WR Sit: Chris Godwin at Indianapolis

Godwin has had three straight weeks under 10 points, and that includes two weeks against opponents that are top ten in points allowed to the position. I'd bench him and look for signs of life somewhere else this week.

TE Record: 12-10

TE Start: Charlie Kolar at LA Chargers

I'm going to go so far off book I'm probably going to look like a total fool. With the Andrews injury everyone is going to be throwing Likely out there, and that makes sense, he's seen almost double Kolar's snap count in each game Kolar has played in. However, Likely is probably already gone on your waiver wire, so let me suggest Kolar. He's going to see a big uptick in snaps too, he's very athletic, and the Chargers are a golden matchup. This is only if you're really desperate though.

TE Sit: Logan Thomas at Dallas

He's getting some love because of his target totals recently, but Dallas isn't all that good of a matchup. Outside of a three touchdown performance by Kittle back in week 5, the Cowboys haven't allowed any other Tight End to score 10 or more on them.

Defense Record: 11-11

Defense Start: New England Patriots at NY Giants

Sure the Pats' defense has been meh this year in fantasy, but this is a great opportunity for a breakout game because of what I said above (Belichick vs rookie QBs).

Defense Sit: Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo

I know I said above that the Eagles are going to run over the Bills, but their defense should be dropped/benched (75% rostered in Yahoo). Despite the turnover friendly games Josh Allen can get into, Buffalo remains a difficult team for opposing fantasy defenses. And Philly hasn't exactly knocked it out of the park in points this year (only 3 games of 8+ points).