Lance's 2023 Week 13 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 112-67

Overall ATS: 56-62

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Dallas over Seattle (ATS: DAL -9)

Seattle just got thumped by San Fran on Thanksgiving, and now they're going to get beat down by the Cowboys on primetime.

LA Chargers over New England (ATS: LAC -6)

The Chargers can't beat the good teams (1-5 against teams that are currently at .500 or better). Luckily for them, the Pats are one of the bad ones.

Detroit over New Orleans (ATS: DET -4.5)

The Saints offense is banged up, so even if Detroit continues to deal with turnovers, I'm not sure the Saints will be able to take advantage.

Atlanta over NY Jets (ATS: ATL -3)

The Jets offense isn't going to give them a chance.

Pittsburgh over Arizona (ATS: PIT -5.5)

My numbers say Arizona covers, but after that beating they took against the Rams last week and the fact that this one is in Pitt, I'm going to go against my numbers.

Indianapolis over Tennessee (ATS: IND -1.5)

Indy is on a 3 game win streak, but within context that is 3 wins against teams with losing records. However, Tennessee just struggled to beat the Panthers, so I'm going Indy.

Miami over Washington (ATS: MIA -9.5)

Washington just failed to cover the 10.5 point spread against the Cowboys, and their defense is one of the worst in the league. The Miami track team runs up the score.

Denver over Houston (ATS: DEN +3.5)

My numbers favor Denver, and I'm going to lean into that one here because in the last four weeks Denver's defense has been better than Houston's and Russell Wilson is playing efficiently.

Carolina over Tampa Bay (ATS: CAR +5.5)

My numbers favor Carolina. I was going to ignore that, but the Frank Reich firing changed my tune. Thomas Brown called plays back in October, so it won't be a complete blindside. However, Jim Caldwell will be the one assisting him, so I'm looking forward to some new wrenches being thrown at Tampa this week.

Philadelphia over San Francisco (ATS: PHI +2.5)

My numbers slightly favor Philly. This one is going to be a fun NFC Championship rematch, and I'm leaning toward the home team.

LA Rams over Cleveland (ATS: LAR -3.5)

The Rams just destroyed the Cardinals, which I didn't see coming. Cleveland's defense has been very good, but as we saw last week, they need better play from their offense if they want to keep up with some of these teams.

Kansas City over Green Bay (ATS: GB +6.5)

Green Bay's defense keeps KC's offense in check enough to keep the game close, but the Chiefs knock Love back down to Earth.

Jacksonville over Cincinnati (ATS: JAX -8.5)

Jacksonville is an opportunistic defense (they're tied for fourth for most turnovers). They use that to their advantage against Browning and company.

Four Game Parlay (1-7): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: LAC -6, MIA -9.5, ATL -3, IND -1.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 14-10

QB Start: Russell Wilson at Houston

If you're looking for someone that has a good shot at getting you a solid 18 points this week, then Wilson is your man. He's been at or around that in 3 of his last 4 games, Houston has allowed more than that in each of their last 4 games, and he's only 56% rostered on Yahoo.

QB Sit: Baker Mayfield vs Carolina

Mayfield has had back-to-back subpar outings, and Carolina has been stingy against QBs in fantasy land.

RB Record: 11-13

RB Start: Joe Mixon at Jacksonville

Last week's showing should've opened Zac Taylor's eyes and made him realize they need to make Mixon their primary offensive focus if they want to give themselves a chance going forward. The Jags are middle of the road when it comes to defending the run.

RB Sit: Breece Hall vs Atlanta

Atlanta has a tough run defense, and they can stack the box to try and force Tim Boyle to beat them.

WR Record: 13-11

WR Start: Courtland Sutton at Houston

If Wilson is going to have a good week he's going to need a target or two to do well too, and I nominate Sutton. Last week was a tough matchup against Cleveland and he still led the team in receiving yards with 61. He can easily outdo that this week.

WR Sit: Cooper Kupp vs Cleveland

Kupp clearly isn't 100%, and this matchup is way tougher than last week's, so I'd say put him on the bench this week if you are able to.

TE Record: 13-11

TE Start: Tyler Conklin vs Atlanta

If the Jets end up having to go to the air like I think they will, then Conklin should be a favorite target of Boyle's. He had 5 targets last week, and Atlanta has allowed 5 or more catches seven times, as well as 50 or more yards five times to the Tight End position.

TE Sit: Trey McBride at Pittsburgh

McBride has done great without Ertz, but Pitt is hard on Tight Ends and soft on Receivers. This is a good game for Hollywood Brown to get into a groove with Murray, while McBride takes a back seat.

Defense Record: 13-11

Defense Start: Atlanta Falcons at NY Jets

They're only 29% rostered on Yahoo, and they have potentially the best matchup of anyone this week. The Jets have allowed 21 fantasy points to defenses in back to back weeks. They also said they're sticking with Boyle coming off their second worst offensive yardage output of the season, and in a game where he threw two interceptions.

Defense Sit: Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco

Either people aren't paying attention to their defense or they're going based on Philly's record and not their fantasy performance because they're still 74% rostered on Yahoo. So, I once again submit Philly as your cut option for the week. As stated last week, they only have three games above 8 points, and last week they managed 4 against KC. San Fran's highest point total allowed to opposing defenses this year is 9.