Lance's 2023 Week 14 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 119-73

Overall ATS: 64-66

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Pittsburgh over New England (ATS: NE +6)

New England can play this game similar to how they did last week and keep it close, maybe even give themselves a chance to win.

Tampa Bay over Atlanta (ATS: TB +2.5)

I can really see this one going either way, but my numbers slightly favor Tampa.

Baltimore over LA Rams (ATS: BAL -7.5)

Despite the way the Rams have played recently, I see Baltimore coming out of the bye and torching them.

Detroit over Chicago (ATS: CHI +3)

Chicago uses turnovers to once again keep it close with Detroit, but the Lions escape with the win.

Indianapolis over Cincinnati (ATS: IND -1.5)

Both of these teams are proving that they are very well coached, and my numbers are split, so I'm sticking with Indy and their hot streak.

Cleveland over Jacksonville (ATS: CLE -3)

A Jags team sans Lawrence, or even with a hobbled Lawrence, is going to make me lean toward the Browns.

New Orleans over Carolina (ATS: NO -5.5)

Did you know these two teams are two of the worst at covering the spread? My numbers heavily favor the Saints so I feel pretty good picking them.

Houston over NY Jets (ATS: HOU -5.5)

The Jets offense is so bad there's no way I could go against Houston.

Minnesota over Las Vegas (ATS: MIN -3)

I'm taking Minnesota because their run defense is better than Vegas'.

San Francisco over Seattle (ATS: SF -10.5)

San Fran thumped Seattle two weeks ago. With the news that Lock will be starting, I'm switching my ATS pick to SF.

Buffalo over Kansas City (ATS: BUF +2.5)

Both of these preseason contenders are struggling right now. I think Buffalo is in a slightly better position this week, coming off their bye.

Denver over LA Chargers (ATS: DEN +2.5)

The numbers favor Denver, and their play recently also favors Denver.

Dallas over Philadelphia (ATS: DAL -3.5)

The Cowboys are being way overhyped for a team that's played two teams total that currently hold a winning record, and lost both games. Philly was one of those teams. However, the Eagles defense is so bad that Dallas gets it done at home.

Miami over Tennessee (ATS: TEN +13.5)

Miami takes care of business, but 13.5 points is a lot to cover, and my numbers favor Tennessee in that aspect.

Green Bay over NY Giants (ATS: GB -6.5)

With the way Green Bay is playing it's hard for me to bet against them, especially against a team like the Giants.

Four Game Parlay (2-7): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: NE +6, BAL -7.5, NO -5.5, HOU -5.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 16-10

QB Start: Gardner Minshew at Cincinnati

Minshew has been all over the place in his fantasy performances, but I think he's the safest pick for those looking for a replacement for an injured player or one on bye. He's coming off a 300 yard passing game, and he's taking on a Cincy defense that's allowed 5 of the 6 opposing QBs they've faced since their bye week to score 20+ fantasy points on them.

QB Sit: C.J. Stroud at NY Jets

The toughest pass defense Stroud has faced so far this season was Carolina, and he scored just 12.9 points on them.

RB Record: 13-13

RB Start: Ezekiel Elliott at Pittsburgh

Stevenson is currently doubtful, so it would be a shock if he did play, which makes Zeke the RB1. Pitt is middle of the pack for points allowed to RBs, and the Patriots need to get Zeke going early if they want to have any chance at being able to pass the ball.

RB Sit: Tony Pollard vs Philadelphia

Pollard has been on fire the last three weeks, but all three games have been against teams that are top ten in points allowed to the position; Philly allows the least. He's also scored a rushing touchdown in each of those games; Philly has allowed 3 total rushing touchdowns to RBs. And Pollard was held to under 10 points the last time these two met.

WR Record: 14-12

WR Start: Jayden Reed at NY Giants

Reed had a down week as a lot of the pass game focus went to Watson. Watson's hamstring is acting up again, which should open the door for Reed to step up again.

WR Sit: Tee Higgins vs Indianapolis

Higgins is getting some love in the projections this week, probably because of how Browning played on Monday night. However, Higgins saw 3 targets to Chase's 12. Clearly the game plan was funnel the ball to Chase, and it worked, so I wouldn't rely on Higgins unless that changes.

TE Record: 13-13

TE Start: Isaiah Likely vs LA Rams

Likely had 6 targets without Andrews two weeks ago and he had a full bye week practicing as the TE1. Plus, the Rams are top 3 in points allowed to the position.

TE Sit: Evan Engram at Cleveland

Tough matchup made harder if Lawrence doesn't play.

Defense Record: 15-11

Defense Start: Houston Texans at NY Jets

Pretty self-explanatory, and they're only 57% owned in Yahoo right now. If they're already gone in your league, then New Orleans and Minnesota are good backup options.

Defense Sit: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo

KC has scored 2 fantasy points in back to back weeks, and Buffalo is bottom 5 in points allowed to opposing defenses.