Lance's 2023 Week 15 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 128-79

Overall ATS: 74-70

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Las Vegas over LA Chargers (ATS: LV -3)

This Chargers team could barely win with Justin Herbert, I'm not going to pick them to win a tough divisional game on the road without him.

Cincinnati over Minnesota (ATS: CIN -3.5)

My numbers were already siding with Cincinnati and then it was announced Nick Mullens will be starting for the Vikings, so I leaned into it more.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh (ATS: IND -2.5)

I was going to go with Pitt cause that's what my numbers say, but that's the same team that just lost back to back games to the Cards and Pats.

Detroit over Denver (ATS: DET -4.5)

This should be a really good game, too difficult for me to pick on my own accord, so I'll stick with my numbers.

Atlanta over Carolina (ATS: CAR +3)

The Falcons have won three games by 3 or less this year, so what's another? Carolina's defense helps keep it close, but the Falcons once again find a way to win. Potential push here, so I would suggest not betting on it.

Chicago over Cleveland (ATS: CHI +3.5)

Cleveland's defense has been phenomenal. Chicago's defense has been on fire the last three weeks, forcing 11 turnovers in that span, holding the Lions to 13 points last week, and winning two straight. Flacco has been really good in his two starts, but I think he runs into a brick wall this week.

Green Bay over Tampa Bay (ATS: GB -3.5)

Tampa Bay is 3-14 all-time in games in Wisconsin from late-October on. This is a December game in Wisconsin, so, while my numbers favor Tampa, I'm going to go with the Packers.

Miami over NY Jets (ATS: MIA -8.5)

The Jets may have figured out Zach Wilson, for his sake I really hope they did. But Miami knows how to play this defense and they have the offense to make it difficult for the Jets to keep up (like back in week 12).

NY Giants over New Orleans (ATS: NYG +6)

Quick rant: the Saints are a really bad good team. The best thing they can do for themselves is lose out, fire Allen and Carmichael, draft the best available rookie QB, and get some hot shot to come coach him up (like Bobby Slowik, or Ben Johnson, or Eric Bienemy if Washington is unwilling to promote him and fire Rivera). Anyways, really bad good team, and the NY Giants have been super impressive on their three game win streak.

Houston over Tennessee (ATS: HOU +2.5)

If C.J. Stroud is unable to play then this flips to Tennessee.

Kansas City over New England (ATS: KC -9.5)

My numbers favor New England to cover, but lose. However, I think the Chiefs are going to come into this one with a chip after the way they reacted to the end of last week's game.

San Francisco over Arizona (ATS: SAN -13.5)

I would take Arizona ATS since it's a big spread and my numbers say I should, but they got beat by 23 by the Rams three weeks ago, so...

LA Rams over Washington (ATS: WAS +6.5)

The Rams last four games include an OT loss to potentially the best team in the AFC, dominant wins over Cleveland and Arizona, and a one point win over Seattle. So, they should be able to handle Washington right? My numbers heavily favor Washington to cover, and slightly favor them to win, but I'm having a difficult time taking them H2H over the Rams.

Buffalo over Dallas (ATS: BUF -2.5)

Dallas played very well at home against Philly. Dallas is also 3-3 on the road. And in a way this is a must win for the Bills otherwise they risk falling three games behind Miami with three games to go.

Baltimore over Jacksonville (ATS: BAL -3.5)

For the same reason I picked Cleveland last week, Lawrence is hobbled. The Ravens can put pressure on him like Cleveland did and throw him off his game.

Philadelphia over Seattle (ATS: PHI -3.5)

Both of these teams are unpredictable. Philly's defense gets them into a world of trouble, but sometimes they do enough so the offense can get the win. Seattle has been all over the place all season, and they've lost 4 straight. If Geno plays I'd give them a chance, but I think Philly finds a way to win again.

Four Game Parlay (2-8): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: LV -3, CIN -3.5, KC -9.5, WAS +6.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Good luck to you all in your playoffs, I'm going to shut this section down for the rest of the season.