Lance's 2023 Week 16 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 138-85
Overall ATS: 84-76
Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.
Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.
LA Rams over New Orleans (ATS: NO +4.5)
I think this game ends up being close, but the Rams look like the better team.
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (ATS: CIN -1.5)
My numbers are a toss-up. Cincinnati has the hotter hand, so I'm going that route.
Buffalo over LA Chargers (ATS: BUF -12.5)
If you saw these two last week then I shouldn't have to provide an explanation here.
Indianapolis over Atlanta (ATS: IND +1.5)
Indy is 5-2 on the road, 9-5 ATS, and the better team in several categories including sacks and turnover differential, the latter of which I believe will be the deciding factor in this one.
Green Bay over Carolina (ATS: GB -4.5)
As a Vikings fan I would love to see Carolina win for multiple reasons (and the biggest of which isn't even to see them beat Green Bay). But the Packers will be tougher on Young and company then Atlanta was, so even if the Panthers' defense stands firm, I don't think they'll be able to win this one 9-7.
Houston over Cleveland (ATS: HOU +2.5)
Same as last week, if Stroud plays then I'm sticking with Houston, if he doesn't then I'm going with Cleveland.
Detroit over Minnesota (ATS: DET -3)
My numbers favor Minnesota. However, Detroit's two biggest concerns are their pass defense and offensive turnovers. Minnesota isn't a turnover driven defense, and with Nick Mullens under Center the pass defense becomes less of a concern.
NY Jets over Washington (ATS: NYJ -3)
Washington showed signs of life at the end of last game with Brissett in the lineup. From what I'm seeing, Howell will still start, and besides that you have to wonder how much of that comeback was a shift to a "protect the lead" defense by the Rams. The Jets defense will be an even more difficult challenge, especially through the air.
Seattle over Tennessee (ATS: SEA -2.5)
Seahawks are coming off an impressive win and have the better overall team.
Tampa Bay over Jacksonville (ATS: TB -1.5)
The numbers favor the Bucs and I'm not sure where Lawrence is at with his ankle.
Chicago over Arizona (ATS: CHI -4.5)
Chicago's defense continues their string of turnover driven dominance.
Miami over Dallas (ATS: MIA -1.5)
Dallas is struggling on the road, and they've struggled against good teams (that game against Philly two weeks ago aside).
Denver over New England (ATS: DEN -6.5)
Could very well be a game New England surprises in, but I don't see Sean Payton, Russell Wilson, or that Denver defense letting this game knock them back in the playoff race.
Kansas City over Las Vegas (ATS: LV +10)
Last time these two played I picked Vegas to cover the large spread, but they let me down. But I'm picking it again because KC just isn't playing very good football, and my numbers favor Vegas to cover.
Philadelphia over NY Giants (ATS: NYG +11.5)
Philly needs the win and despite all of the stuff going on with both sides of the ball they are the better team in this one, so they get the win. Them covering the spread is a different story though.
Baltimore over San Francisco (ATS: BAL +5.5)
My numbers favor Baltimore and 5.5 point underdogs seems a bit disrespectful, regardless of who their opponent is.
Four Game Parlay (2-9): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: BUF -12.5, IND +1.5, CHI -4.5, MIA -1.5
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Good luck to you all in your playoffs, I've shut this section down for the rest of the season.
