Lance's 2023 Week 17 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 150-89

Overall ATS: 93-83

Note: I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Cleveland over NY Jets (ATS: CLE -7.5)

If you've watched the Browns the last three weeks you'll understand why I'm going with Cleveland. This might be the second best stretch of play Flacco has ever had.

Dallas over Detroit (ATS: DAL -6)

My numbers favor Dallas. I was torn between Dallas' play at home, which has been amazing, and their play against good teams, which has been far less amazing. I decided to stick with my numbers and Dallas' home record.

Baltimore over Miami (ATS: BAL -3.5)

The game I'm most looking forward to this week. My numbers are a toss-up and I believe either team could see it go their way, so I'm taking the home team.

Buffalo over New England (ATS: NE +11.5)

My numbers favor the Pats to cover and I could see Buffalo getting caught looking ahead to their game with Miami next week.

Chicago over Atlanta (ATS: CHI -3)

The Bears are rolling, a little too late, but they don't seemed concerned about losing ground in the draft order. Given Ridder's penchant for turnovers and Chicago's defense, I'm going Bears.

Houston over Tennessee (ATS: HOU -3.5)

Stroud should be back, even if he isn't I still think Houston gets the win.

Las Vegas over Indianapolis (ATS: LV +3)

This is a toss up with my numbers, I like the way Vegas' defense is playing, I think they follow up last week's big win with another.

Carolina over Jacksonville (ATS: CAR +6.5)

My numbers favor Carolina to cover. Lawrence's health has played a role in their four game losing streak and it's the reason I'm also taking Carolina to pull off the upset.

LA Rams over NY Giants (ATS: LAR -6.5)

My numbers favor the Rams. The way the Rams have been playing favors the Rams. Don't overthink it.

Philadelphia over Arizona (ATS: ARI +10.5)

These teams are difficult to read, so this game really could go any direction. I don't think Philly gives up a chance at locking up the division by losing to the Cards, but 10.5 points seems like a lot for them to cover given their woes.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans (ATS: TB -3)

The Bucs are playing great football, Mayfield is having a great season, and Tampa is at home.

San Francisco over Washington (ATS: SAN -13.5)

That's a large spread, but I'm gonna say the Niners take out last week's frustration on the Commanders.

Seattle over Pittsburgh (ATS: SEA -3.5)

Hard to pick against either of these coaches this late in the season, but I'm going to say Pitt needs a win next week to keep Tomlin's winning record streak alive, just like last season.

Kansas City over Cincinnati (ATS: CIN +7)

The numbers favor Cincy to cover and KC to win. I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy wins with the way the Chiefs are playing, but I'll stick with the numbers.

Denver over LA Chargers (ATS: DEN -5.5)

Call me pessimistic, but I think last week was a fluke for the Chargers. A mix of a new coach calling the shots and Buffalo looking ahead. Denver blows them out.

Minnesota over Green Bay (ATS: MIN -1.5)

Both teams have taken a step back in recent weeks with Minnesota losing back to back while giving up 27 and 30 points, and Green Bay losing two out of their last three, barely beating Carolina and giving up 30+ in their last two. It's their showing against Carolina last week that has me picking Minnesota.

Four Game Parlay (2-10): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: CLE -7.5, CHI -3, CAR +6.5, LAR -6.5,

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Good luck to you all in your playoffs, I've shut this section down for the rest of the season.