Lance's 2023 Week 2 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record Last Season: 8-8

Overall ATS: 7-9

Note: In order for my system that I use to make my ATS picks to work properly I need stats and unfortunately one game doesn't tell enough of the story, so my ATS picks will start back up in week 6.

Philadelphia over Minnesota

The biggest reason why I see Philly taking care of business is because Minnesota's secondary remains a work in progress.

Atlanta over Green Bay

Atlanta's defense is better off than Chicago's, and they did a really good job of handling Carolina last week. Plus, that two-headed backfield is primed to feast again.

Buffalo over Las Vegas

Allen shouldn't struggle against Vegas the same way he did against the Jets' high end defense.

Cincinnati over Baltimore

Everyone enjoyed pointing out Burrow's record against Cleveland after last week's game, so let's do the same for his record against Baltimore. In his last two seasons he's 3-1 against the Ravens and in the three wins Cincy has scored 41 points twice and 27 in the other game, while Burrow has averaged 385.3 yards passing with 8 touchdowns to 1 interception.

Detroit over Seattle

I don't know what happened to Seattle last week, but it was shockingly bad. Detroit on the other hand was a force.

Houston over Indianapolis

Houston's defense was solid last week, against the pass. If they can contain Richardson and force him into bad passing situations they'll walk away with the win, and I think they can do that.

Jacksonville over Kansas City

Travis Kelce and Chris Jones should be back this Sunday, which could be good for KC since they struggled against Detroit. However, Jones sat out all of camp and preseason, which means he'll just be kicking the rust off, and Kelce's injury is a deep bone bruise, which is not going to just magically heal. Even if they're both on the field I think the Jags will get the win.

Tampa Bay over Chicago

Chicago's performance last week wasn't a fluke. The Bucs defense showed up against the Vikings and they'll take care of business again this week.

LA Chargers over Tennessee

I think this turns into a shootout, like the Chargers game against Miami, and Tennessee isn't equipped to keep up.

NY Giants over Arizona

I'm not fully confident in this one because Arizona's defense was a destructive tornado against Washington, and the Giants' O-Line played a big role in their loss last week. But, I think with tape to go off of the Giants can prepare for Arizona and do a better job of moving the ball.

San Francisco over LA Rams

I don't know what to really make of the Rams' performance last week, but I'm sticking with my preseason prediction (they'll finish with the #1 pick) until further notice. San Fran dominates in all aspects this week.

Dallas over NY Jets

NYJ's O-Line is in worse shape than NYG's O-Line, Dallas is in for another monster game.

Denver over Washington

Sean Payton adjusts for the struggles his offense experienced in week 1, and they're able to muster more than 16 points this go around.

Miami over New England

New England's defense is in a much better position to keep Miami's track team in check than the Chargers were last week, but they still aren't ready offensively to hang with them. Don't expect 36 points out of Miami, but they'll still do enough to beat the Pats.

New Orleans over Carolina

Carolina had a hard time against Atlanta's defense, they're going to struggle way more against New Orleans. Division games can lead to some surprises, but I'd expect that to be in consideration later in the year, once Young has time under his belt.

Cleveland over Pittsburgh

With this one you have to figure out what side of Pitt's offense you're on. Personally, I'm on the side that last week wasn't just because the Niners have one of the best defenses in the league. Cleveland torches Pitt's secondary and shuts down Pickett and company.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 2-0

QB Start: Baker Mayfield vs Chicago

The Bears just allowed Love to throw for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions without Christian Watson on the field. Mayfield didn't throw for a lot of yards against the Vikings, but he did well protecting the ball. The ground game continued to struggle for Tampa, so if Mayfield's performance helped give confidence to Tampa's HC and OC, then he should be able to open it up more. He's worth a flier if you're already hurting at the position, or if you're looking to go cheap QB in DFS.

QB Sit: Anthony Richardson at Houston

He was so-so on the field last week, but as expected, his rushing ability made him fantasy relevant. However, Houston just finished containing and limiting Lamar Jackson, so take caution with Richardson in week 2.

RB Record: 1-1

RB Start: Rhamondre Stevenson vs Miami

His week 1 performance wasn't a big hit, but he did see 12 carries and 6 targets. Miami's run defense was ripped apart by Ekeler and Kelley last week, and if New England wants to keep the Miami Sprinters from having their way they'll need to run the ball and control the clock.

RB Sit: Joe Mixon vs Baltimore

Last week was a disappointment for the entire Cincinnati offense, but I'd attribute most of that to the starters not playing in the preseason. Baltimore's defense is more susceptible against the pass, they had no problem shutting down Dameon Pierce last week.

WR Record: 1-1

WR Start: Darnell Mooney at Tampa Bay

I can almost guarantee the Bears will do what they can to make sure D.J. Moore sees more than 2 targets this week, but don't discount what Mooney produced last week (7 targets, 4 catches, 53 yards and a score). Mooney is the burner and if you didn't see Addison's deep touchdown catch against Tampa last week you should check it out, it's the kind of play Chicago could take advantage of using Mooney.

WR Sit: Garrett Wilson at Dallas

His touchdown salvaged an otherwise disappointing fantasy outing in week 1 (but with Zach Wilson at the helm against the Bills that isn't a big surprise). Zach Wilson at the helm isn't actually the biggest reason for him being listed here. Everyone either saw, heard or read about what the Cowboys defense did to the Giants O-Line in week 1, the Jets O-Line is worse off. Expect Zach Wilson to struggle to get the ball out this week, and that doesn't bode well for Garrett Wilson.

TE Record: 1-1

TE Start: Sam LaPorta vs Seattle

There weren't a lot of points out of this position in week 1, so you can only weigh the "fantasy points against" tallies so much. I'd weight the targets the player saw more, and then consider how many yards/reception the opposing defense allowed to Tight Ends. Seattle allowed 16.3 YPR to Higbee last week who had 3 catches on 3 targets, LaPorta saw 5 catches on 5 targets against the Chiefs. If he can get to or close to that 16.3 YPR and maintain the 5 catches he's looking at 75-82 yards, that's pretty solid output.

TE Sit: David Njoku at Pittsburgh

He saw 3 total targets last week and now he has to face Pittsburgh's Safeties...I'll pass.

Defense Record: 2-0

Defense Start: Detroit Lions vs Seattle

They just held Kansas City to 20. Seattle could only muster 16 measly points against the mostly talentless Rams defense (perhaps the Rams will continue surprising me, but for now I stand by that comment). Limiting points against is a good way to increase your defense's fantasy point total.

Defense Sit: New England Patriots vs Miami

Everyone saw what Miami's offense did to the Chargers last week right? Pretty much explains why the well rostered Pats' defense should not be started this week, right?