Lance's 2023 Week 3 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 17-15

Overall ATS: 7-9

Note: In order for my system that I use to make my ATS picks to work properly I need stats and unfortunately one game doesn't tell enough of the story, so my ATS picks will start back up in week 6.

San Francisco over NY Giants

Look for the Giants to use last week's second half to keep themselves from getting blown out, but there's no way I'd bet on them to beat San Fran two weeks after getting destroyed by Dallas and one week after they needed a big second half comeback to beat Arizona.

Baltimore over Indianapolis

Richardson or no Richardson, Baltimore is the more talented team.

Cleveland over Tennessee

I think Cleveland squeezes out a win in a very close scoring game.

Detroit over Atlanta

In an ideal world Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago would all lose and my Vikings would win. However, I think Atlanta is going to struggle to keep up with Goff and company.

New Orleans over Green Bay

Green Bay looked good through their first two weeks, but all due respect to Atlanta, they haven't faced a defense like New Orleans' yet. That's why I'm taking the Saints, and also why I'm looking forward to seeing how Love does in his first real test.

Jacksonville over Houston

Jacksonville's defense is a lot better than they get credit for, they'll do the dirty work that allows the Jags to walk away with a comfortable victory.

Miami over Denver

There is a chance Miami gets caught looking ahead (they face Buffalo next week), that's why I'd be taking Denver ATS if I were a bettor, but I think Miami still gets the W.

Minnesota over LA Chargers

If you read my One Bold Prediction article you know that my prediction for the Chargers was that they'd head into week 10 2-6 and Staley would be the first coach fired. An 0-3 start will get those gears turning after Cousins, Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson torch the Chargers weak defense.

New England over NY Jets

Zach Wilson's record against New England: 0-4. About to be 0-5.

Buffalo over Washington

Washington is a sneaky upset pick since they're at home, they've been playing much better ball than I'd say most expected, and Buffalo hasn't been at their peak. I'm going to stick with the favorites, but I'm uneasy about it.

Seattle over Carolina

Seattle because of what their defense can do to Young. However, keep in mind Carolina's defense has been stingy so far this season.

Dallas over Arizona

Everyone should know Dallas is 2-0 against the spread, but did you also know Arizona is 2-0 ATS? Don't shocked if they keep Dallas from blowing them out, but there's absolutely no way I'd pick them to pull off the upset.

Kansas City over Chicago

Kansas City has looked meh through two weeks, but this is a great opportunity for them to really get going.

Las Vegas over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh's defense looked good in the stats sheet because Cleveland's offense played sloppy football. Their Corners are still a liability, i.e. Adams should be in for a great game, and their run defense is abysmal, i.e. major bounce-back opportunity for Jacobs.

Philadelphia over Tampa Bay

Upset potential and here's why: Philly won last week by running incredibly well, Tampa does a great job stopping the run. On the flip side, Philly has struggled against the pass and that's what's helped fuel the points for Tampa. My numbers say Philly, so that's who I have here, but I really think Tampa could push themselves to 3-0.

Cincinnati over LA Rams

I saw a record that I found very interesting, did you know Burrow has won one game in his first two weeks of any season since he entered the league? That's right, he's now 1-7 in weeks 1 and 2. He's 2-0-1 in week 3. Cincy started to look like themselves last week, they put it all together in this one.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 3-1

QB Start: Kirk Cousins vs LA Chargers

I can't say Mahomes, so I'll go in this direction instead. Like I said above Cousins and the Vikings pass catchers are primed for a monster performance against LAC's porous defense.

QB Sit: Geno Smith vs Carolina

As noted above, Carolina's defense has been stingy. Geno struggled week 1 against a surprising Rams team (that also looked pretty good last week), but he took advantage of Detroit's secondary. I think we see him struggle again this week.

RB Record: 2-2

RB Start: Isiah Pacheco vs Chicago

Jacobs bounce back, woot woot! Oh, that's right, I can't list him either. If this game gets as out-of-hand as I expect it will, the Chiefs should run the ball plenty in the second half. Pacheco has 20 carries compared to the next highest KC tally, which is 7 by CEH.

RB Sit: D'Andre Swift at Tampa Bay

Swift had a monster game last week sans Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell could be back this week, which shouldn't put Swift back to the 2 touch outing he saw week 1, but should lower the number of touches he sees. Plus, Tampa has a very good run defense, which should force Philly to throw more and running QBs don't often look to throw to their RBs.

WR Record: 1-3

WR Start: Tank Dell at Jacksonville

Noah Brown went on IR last week, then on Sunday Tank Dell led the team in targets. And perhaps more important, he went from 29 passing snaps to 47 (per PFF). He clearly has a rapport built with Stroud and he has an incredible ability to separate, couple that with the number of opportunities he saw last week and I think we could see the blooming of a star.

WR Sit: Jerry Jeudy at Miami

He returned from his injury this past week, and is of course expected to return to the WR1 role. But he had 5 targets in his return, and now he'll have to most likely face Xavien Howard. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims showed the deep threat ability we all knew he possessed, and we all know Russell Wilson loves.

TE Record: 3-1

TE Start: Tyler Higbee at Cincinnati

He's been a bit overlooked as Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell continue to shine, but he's still seeing a decent number of targets (7 last week), and Cincy has allowed a touchdown to a Tight End in each week to open the year.

TE Sit: Dawson Knox at Washington

Washington has been an unfavorable matchup for Tight Ends and though he's coming off a game in which he scored, he's also averaging a measly 5.8 YPR.

Defense Record: 3-1

Defense Start: Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina

Young has been sacked 6 times, he's thrown two picks, and Carolina is averaging 13.5 PPG. This is a great matchup for Seattle to follow up their 13 point performance last week with another big fantasy outing.

Defense Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas

Pittsburgh has a 65% rostered rate on Yahoo and I'm assuming most of that is because of their big 26 point performance against Cleveland. Keep in mind that they sacked Watson 6 times, had a pick and two touchdowns. Vegas hasn't allowed a sack yet this season and per PFF they've only allowed 5 pressures. If Garoppolo feels comfortable in the pocket he'll be able to pick apart Pitt's weak secondary.