Lance's 2023 Week 4 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 27-21

Overall ATS: 7-9

Note: In order for my system that I use to make my ATS picks to work properly I need stats and unfortunately one game doesn't tell enough of the story, so my ATS picks will start back up in week 6.

Detroit over Green Bay

Detroit's pass rush puts Love into too many bad situations.

Jacksonville over Atlanta

The Jags defense gets back on track in an early morning London game.

Buffalo over Miami

#1 offense vs the #2 defense, Bills D slows down Miami just enough for Allen to pull out the win.

Minnesota over Carolina

Cousins and company are playing too well to not get a win against a struggling, flat Panthers team.

Denver over Chicago

Denver looked terrible last week, but Chicago has been the worst looking team overall.

Cleveland over Baltimore

I went back and forth, ultimately choosing Cleveland's #1 defense.

Pittsburgh over Houston

Very close game that Tomlin somehow manages to pull a win out of.

LA Rams over Indianapolis

Rams offense has a field day.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

Saints defense overwhelms Mayfield.

Philadelphia over Washington

Howell bounces back, but Philly just wins, like they've been doing to open the season.

Cincinnati over Tennessee

Burrow and the pass game finally light up the scoreboard and box score.

LA Chargers over Las Vegas

Chargers defense is bad enough to give Vegas a shot, but their offense gets them the W.

Dallas over New England

A defensive slugfest that favors Dallas.

San Francisco over Arizona

Arizona keeps their ATS win streak going, but the Niners avoid the pit Dallas stumbled into.

Kansas City over NY Jets

It's Mahomes vs Wilson, enough said.

Seattle over NY Giants

I like the changes Seattle has made following week 1 more than what the Giants have done.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 5-1

QB Start: Russell Wilson at Chicago

The Bears defense is awful and they've allowed two out of three QBs to score 23+ fantasy points on them. Wilson had a big game against Washington and he should be in store for another one.

QB Sit: Dak Prescott vs New England

He hasn't eclipsed 20 points yet and I don't see him doing so against the Pats defense.

RB Record: 3-3

RB Start: Roschon Johnson vs Denver

Feel like living dangerously? Johnson's high carry mark is 8, but he's seen just 12 less snaps than Herbert to date and he's been more efficient with the ball. Denver just allowed Mostert and Achane to do whatever they wanted, and they did the same for Brian Robinson the week before.

RB Sit: Travis Etienne vs Atlanta

Difficult call to make since Etienne sees a healthy number of touches each game, but Bigsby is clearly the goal line back and Atlanta has limited RBs so far.

WR Record: 3-3

WR Start: Tutu Atwell at Indianapolis

In week 1 Indy let two Receivers hit double-digits. In week 2 they let three Receivers get there. Atwell's lowest point total to date is 11.7, get him in your lineup.

WR Sit: Mike Evans at New Orleans

Evans has played the Saints 10 times since Lattimore entered the league and in that span he's managed just 2 receiving touchdowns, and averaged 3.3 receptions and 55.6 yards. It's safer to bench him this week.

TE Record: 5-1

TE Start: Dalton Kincaid vs Miami

I'm going to roll the dice and say Miami's offense wins out against Buffalo's defense. And for that reason I think Buffalo is going to be forced to throw a lot, so give me Kincaid in a breakout performance.

TE Sit: Hunter Henry at Dallas

The bottom fell out last week in his 2 catch, 17 yard performance. It's not going to be any easier for him this week.

Defense Record: 3-3

Defense Start: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina

Minnesota's defense has been anything but spectacular, however, it looks like Bryce Young is going to play and the Panthers allowed 19 total fantasy points to defenses in the first two weeks.

Defense Sit: New York Jets vs Kansas City

The Jets are still 73% rostered on Yahoo. If you're apart of that group I hope it's to stash them so you can have them after this week. If not, this is your reminder that starting them this week is a very bad idea.