Lance's 2023 Week 5 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 39-25

Overall ATS: 7-9

Note: In order for my system that I use to make my ATS picks to work properly I need stats and unfortunately one game doesn't tell enough of the story, so my ATS picks will start back up in week 6.

Washington over Chicago

This could very easily go in Chicago's favor since the rumors are they're playing for their coach's job. However, Washington's defense has been solid and their offense has proven they can take advantage of bad defensive play.

Jacksonville over Buffalo

I'm feeling a letdown game coming for the Bills after that spectacular showing they had last week over the Dolphins.

Houston over Atlanta

Houston has just looked like the better team.

Detroit over Carolina

The Lions are firing on all cylinders, while Bryce Young is still trying to find his footing.

Tennessee over Indianapolis

Derrick Henry takes control and brings home the win.

Miami over NY Giants

Miami explodes again, getting out the frustration from a week ago.

New England over New Orleans

Both teams looked horrid last week, but for me the Saints loss was worse and has me more concerned heading into this one.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Whether or not Pickett plays this should be a slugfest as it usually is, but the Ravens are the better team and they find a way to get the win.

Arizona over Cincinnati

I'm sick of saying this is a get right game for Cincy, I don't think what we've seen so far remains the norm for the season, but until they show their 2022 version I'm picking against them.

Philadelphia over LA Rams

I can't put my finger on why, but these Eagles do not strike me as a Super Bowl team despite their record. Still, I'm going to say we see another lackadaisical performance for that somehow results in another win.

NY Jets over Denver

The Jets have bulletin board material thanks to preseason comments by Sean Payton, and they use that material to rip through the Broncos.

Kansas City over Minnesota

Andy Reid is 6-2 all time against the Vikings and most recently he beat them in 2019 with Matt Moore under Center.

San Francisco over Dallas

This has the makings of a very good defensive game, which almost certainly means it will be a shootout, give me Purdy, McCaffrey and Aiyuk over Prescott, Pollard and Lamb.

Las Vegas over Green Bay

Vegas at home with Davante Adams scoring at least twice against his old team.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 7-1

QB Start: Sam Howell vs Chicago

Howell has had one bad fantasy week so far and that was against Buffalo. His other three week have been in the 11-14 range, and have each been against teams that haven't done great against the pass. Chicago has been one of the worst on the season, so take advantage.  

QB Sit: Trevor Lawrence at Buffalo

We just saw Buffalo shut Miami's pass game down. Lawrence hasn't been a fantasy fireball this year, and I wouldn't expect him to suddenly turn into one this week.

RB Record: 3-5

RB Start: Breece Hall at Denver

Last week Hall showed off that explosiveness we all saw last year on that 43 yard run in the third quarter, but because of how the game started, Hall only saw 6 carries and the Jets only ran the ball 16 times total. If the Jets want to win more games they're going to need to rely on their run game more than they have been, and count on their defense to do the rest. Denver's run defense is terrible, so this is a good week to start.

RB Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson vs New Orleans

Stevenson has had two flat weeks in a row, and the Saints defense has only allowed one double digit fantasy back this season (Derrick Henry, week 1, 12.9 points).

WR Record: 4-4

WR Start: Rashee Rice at Minnesota

Despite having the fourth highest number of snaps among the Chiefs' Receivers, he has the most targets. Minnesota is a great team to throw against, so why not take a shot on Rice?

WR Sit: Nico Collins at Atlanta

Collins sandwiched a 4.4 point fantasy effort against the Jags between a 24.1 outing against Indy and a 32.3 outing against Pitt. He's likely to see a lot of A.J. Terrell this week, which should free up Tank Dell and Robert Woods, but will probably push Collins back to single digits.

TE Record: 6-2

TE Start: Zach Ertz vs Cincinnati

He's clearly one of Dobbs' go-to targets with at least 8 in three of his games. This is a blow-up spot for him.

TE Sit: Sam LaPorta vs Carolina

I'm going to hate if this is right since I just made LaPorta my only Tight End in one league, but Carolina just held T.J. Hockenson to 24 yards on 2 catches, and they've done a lot of the same against the other Tight Ends they've faced. He's not the only target Detroit has, he's coming off a 5 target game after all, and the Lions just showed they can easily control a game with the run game if need be.

Defense Record: 5-3

Defense Start: Houston Texans at Atlanta

Houston is only 20% rostered on Yahoo right now. In the last two weeks Houston's defense has scored 25 total fantasy points, and Atlanta has allowed 36 total fantasy points. Houston is a good streaming option if you need one for a bye week.

Defense Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore

I said above that this should be a very hard fought game, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Steelers' defense is in for a big fantasy performance. The Ravens haven't allowed an opposing defense to hit the double-digit fantasy point mark on them yet.