Lance's 2023 Week 6 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 47-31

Overall ATS: 7-9

Note: That ATS record is from week 1, I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Kansas City over Denver (ATS: DEN +10.5)

Last year KC beat Denver by 6 and 3. I don't think that Denver team was any better than this one, and I don't think this KC team is as good as that one. In other words, I think the Broncos are still able to keep it close. The joys of rivalry games.

Baltimore over Tennessee (ATS: BAL -4)

Even with their showing last week, Baltimore still has the better all around team, and the coaching staff will have them back in the right head space heading into Tennessee.

Atlanta over Washington (ATS: WAS +2.5)

Two of Atlanta's wins have been by 2 or less points. Washington has the ability to keep this one in that same kind of category, but Atlanta escapes with the win at home.

Chicago over Minnesota (ATS: CHI +2.5)

I'm pretty surprised that Chicago, with the way they're playing and being at home, is the underdog. Toss in Jefferson's injury and the divisional rivalry aspect and I think Chicago is the right pick here.

Cincinnati over Seattle (ATS: CIN -3)

FINALLY the Bengals looked like themselves. They carry that over into this one before heading into their bye week.

San Francisco over Cleveland (ATS: SF -6.5)

**Changing this to all San Fran with Watson out.**

Houston over New Orleans (ATS: HOU +1.5)

That was an impressive week by the Saints last week, but I'm not buying it yet. Give me the Texans at home with that Carmichael coached Saints offense falling back into their pre-Patriots game struggles.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis (ATS: JAX -4.5)

The Jags won 31-21 in week 1 against Anthony Richardson. Sure this one will be against Minshew and Jonathan Taylor will be healthy, but the result will be the same.

Miami over Carolina (ATS: MIA -13.5)

Miami lights up Carolina early and often.

Las Vegas over New England (ATS: LV -3)

The Pats are struggling bad right now. Vegas is far from a sure thing, but I like their chances in this one.

Detroit over Tampa Bay (ATS: TB +3)

Tampa was playing good football before their bye and they're rested, but Detroit is on fire. I think Tampa keeps it close in a loss, +3 is entering push territory though so if you can find +3.5 take it, otherwise I wouldn't bet on this game.

LA Rams over Arizona (ATS: ARI +7)

There's a chance last week was a demonstration that Arizona has gone as far as they can with Dobbs, and the Rams end up blowing out the Cards. I'm gonna stick with them ATS for one more week, but I think the Rams win easily enough (like a last minute touchdown by Arizona brings them within 7).

Philadelphia over NY Jets (ATS: PHI -7)

Despite being 5-0 Philly has shown flaws. They win because their defensive weakness is against the pass and I doubt Zach Wilson will get the job done. **With news that the Jets will likely be without both Gardner and Reed, I'm switching my ATS pick to Philly**

Buffalo over NY Giants (ATS: BUF -14)

If the Giants were playing any better at all I'd say they could at least cover the spread because Daboll should know his opponent well enough to keep things from getting out of hand. But the Giants have been terrible, so the Bills destroy them.

Dallas over LA Chargers (ATS: DAL -2.5)

Dallas takes out the frustration from their blowout loss to the Niners, on the Chargers.

Four Game Parlay (o-1): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: Chicago +2.5, Miami -13.5, Buffalo -14, and Dallas -2.5.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 9-1

QB Start: Bryce Young at Miami

Young scored 20.28 points last week thanks mostly to garbage time. There is nothing wrong with garbage time points in fantasy land if you can project when there's a good chance they will happen. This game is one of those times, so if you're in need, take a chance on Young.

QB Sit: Justin Herbert vs Dallas

Herbert was spectacular in the first four weeks, but this is not the game I would want to trust him in.

RB Record: 5-5

RB Start: James Cook vs NY Giants

After last week's incredibly poor performance against the Jags, you might be wanting to stick Cook on the bench and leave him there. Don't do it this week though since the Giants are allowing 5.3 YPC, and they've given up 9 rushing touchdowns.

RB Sit: Derrick Henry vs Baltimore

Henry has scored under 10 fantasy points twice this season. Baltimore hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown yet and are allowing just 3.7 YPC. Plus, Tyjae Spears has more targets than Henry (19 to 11). This just isn't a good starting spot for King Henry.

WR Record: 6-4

WR Start: Zay Flowers at Tennessee

He's coming off an 11 target game and gets to play a Titans defense that's allowing 11.3 YPR, and their best Corner is allowing a 69.6 completion percentage (per PFF). Flowers gets his first receiving touchdown on the season, and I'm going to say he finishes with 7 catches for 78 yards to go with the touchdown.

WR Sit: Chris Olave at Houston

**Because of the Gardner/Reed news I'm taking Brown off of this** If it weren't for a touchdown last week Olave would've put up two complete duds in a row. He's had just 3 catches on 11 total targets through two weeks. Carr is banged up, and the offensive play calling has been lackluster. Plus, Houston's defense has been very tough on Receivers in fantasy land.

TE Record: 6-4

TE Start: Zach Ertz at LA Rams

I know I picked him last week, but I am very upset about how that ended. He scored his first receiving touchdown of the season, but finished 0.7 points outside of the top 12 at Tight End. That's alright, I'll double down this week with him taking on a Rams defense that just allowed Dallas Goedert to hit his highs for receptions (8), yards (117) and touchdowns (1) on the year, and who also allowed two Colts Tight Ends to get to double-digits two weeks ago.

TE Sit: George Kittle at Cleveland

I know he's coming off that monster game, but I think he's in for another single-digit fantasy outing (he's had three games under 5 points). The Browns have three players Kittle is likely to see in coverage, Delpit, Newsome and Thornhill. None of the three have given up a touchdown yet on a combined 31 targets, and they're averaging 7.3 YPR allowed.

Defense Record: 5-5

Defense Start: Las Vegas Raiders vs New England

Need a really big flier? I don't feel good about this, but to be fair, the Pats have allowed 9+ fantasy points in four of their five games, their offense has been atrocious two weeks in a row, and the Raiders just put up 12 fantasy points against a Packers offense that has looked much better than New England's.

Defense Sit: Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay

Many of you likely grabbed Detroit last Wednesday in preparation for their game against the Panthers. That was a decent call. But now is the time to put them back out on the waiver and bring in someone else, because Tampa's only allowing an average of 1 sack a game, Mayfield has only tossed two picks (as a matter of fact, the Bucs have a +7 turnover differential), and Tampa has scored 20+ in three of their four games.