Lance's 2023 Week 7 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 58-35
Overall ATS: 15-16
Note: That ATS record is from week 1, I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.
Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.
Jacksonville over New Orleans (ATS: JAX +3)
My numbers are split on this one. I'm leaning towards the Jags who just look like the better all-around team.
Detroit over Baltimore (ATS: DET +3)
Baltimore is returning from London to play this game. At least they're at home right? Detroit continues their red-hot play.
Chicago over Las Vegas (ATS: CHI +3)
A prepared Tyson Bagent shocks the Raiders. Sure, it looks like it'll be a battle of backup QBs, but that doesn't lessen the shock.
Cleveland over Indianapolis (ATS: IND +2.5)
Cleveland's defense carried them to a win over the Niners, surely they can do the same against Indy. The Colts are able to make it a nailbiter.
Buffalo over New England (ATS: BUF -8.5)
The Bills were flat against the Giants. They will have every opportunity to blowout the Pats who allowed their two opponents prior to the Raiders to beat them by a combined score of 72-3.
NY Giants over Washington (ATS: NYG +2)
My numbers favor the Giants and it's not like Daniel Jones' play so far this season would have helped those numbers, so I'm sticking with NYG.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta (ATS: TB -2.5)
The Bucs rebound after that lackluster performance last week.
LA Rams over Pittsburgh (ATS: LAR -3)
Kupp and Nacua run roughshod over the Steelers' secondary.
Seattle over Arizona (ATS: SEA -7.5)
I feel more confident saying it this week, Arizona has turned back into a pumpkin. Seattle takes them to the woodshed.
Denver over Green Bay (ATS: DEN +1.5)
I went back and forth on this one. My numbers favor Denver and something in my gut tells me Green Bay is in for a beating.
Kansas City over LA Chargers (ATS: LAC +5.5)
Mahomes is 4-1 against Herbert, and the average point differential in their games is 4.2. Herbert and company keep the Chargers from getting blown out, but the Chiefs get the win at home.
Philadelphia over Miami (ATS: PHI -2)
As much as I'd like to go with my gut, it got me in trouble with some of my picks last week, so I'll stick with my numbers. Those numbers suggest Philly wins and covers.
San Francisco over Minnesota (ATS: MIN +6.5)
The Niners' injured trio from last week are expected to have a chance to play this week. Regardless, their defense pulls out the win this week. The Vikings do enough to cover.
Four Game Parlay (0-2): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: LAC +5.5, NYG +2, CHI +3, MIN +6.5
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not
Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.
QB Record: 9-3
QB Start: Brock Purdy vs Minnesota
Purdy had a rough outing last week and it was partly due to the in-game injuries, but don't discredit how much Cleveland's top ranked defense also played. Minnesota's defense isn't great against the pass, and I'm seeing CMC, Samuel and Williams could all play Monday night.
QB Sit: Trevor Lawrence vs New Orleans
Lawrence isn't having a great fantasy season and given his remaining schedule you might only have one or two more chances at top ten performances for him. New Orleans is bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to QBs, they're also allowing just 5.9 YPA, and have 8 ints to 7 touchdowns, so this probably isn't one of those weeks.
RB Record: 5-7
RB Start: Zach Evans vs Pittsburgh
Take advantage of the injuries with Evans. The Rams signed Gaskin and brought Freeman up from the practice squad. Gaskin will likely only be there as a just in case option since he won't have been immersed in the Rams playbook for very long. Freeman will almost certainly get some touches, but this should be Evans' backfield for now. And he has a great opportunity against the Steelers who have allowed a double-digit back in every week this year except one (Jacobs has 9.5 in week 3).
RB Sit: Rachaad White vs Atlanta
Bye weeks are rough this week, so if you have to start White (like I do) then I understand. Just be prepared for a sub-10 point performance. Atlanta has only allowed two backs to score 10+ points on them: Miles Sanders in week 1, and Brian Robinson last week who needed a touchdown to get there.
WR Record: 7-5
WR Start: Drake London at Tampa Bay
London has hit double-digits in four out of six weeks, and he's progressively ramped up in targets and points over the last three weeks. He's now in a stretch of opponents allowing top ten fantasy points to Receivers, so I'd suggest you put him in your lineup right up to his bye week and not give it a second thought.
WR Sit: Michael Pittman Jr. vs Cleveland
We all just saw what the Browns did to the Niners, so why shouldn't we expect them to do the same, if not worse, to the Colts? The sheer volume of targets Pittman has seen could be his saving grace, but I'd err on the side of caution if you are able to this week.
TE Record: 7-5
TE Start: Luke Musgrave at Denver
Musgrave had a 6 reception, 7 target, 34 yard game just before Green Bay's bye week. He's coming out of it and right into a matchup with the team giving up the most fantasy points to Tight Ends this season. This seems so obvious it might be a trap, but I say go ahead and get Musgrave in those lineups.
TE Sit: Logan Thomas at NY Giants
You may have been one of the ones that flocked to the wire to grab Thomas after his big performance two weeks ago. But after that dud last week against a very susceptible (to Tight Ends) Atlanta defense, you can probably agree Thomas isn't going to be a consistent and reliable player. The Giants tend to give up more to Receivers than they do Tight Ends, and Washington has plenty of Receivers to get the ball to.
Defense Record: 6-6
Defense Start: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta
If you exclude their game against the Lions last week, the Bucs defense has scored 9+ fantasy points in three out of four games. Atlanta isn't a big scoring team, they've allowed their fair share of sacks this season, and Ridder's thrown a pick in half his games so far. Tampa is 34% rostered in Yahoo, so if you're streaming or if you need a bye week fill, this is the route to go.
Defense Sit: Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit
Baltimore is 92% rostered and they are having a pretty solid fantasy season, but Detroit's offense has been a well oiled machine. A prime example: Goff has an 11-3 TD-INT ratio. Also, the Lions are averaging 28 PPG, and they haven't scored under 20 points yet this year.
