Lance's 2023 Week 8 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 66-40

Overall ATS: 23-21

Note: That ATS record is from week 1, I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Buffalo over Tampa Bay (ATS: BUF -8.5)

My numbers favor the Bills, though I am a little concerned after what happened against the Pats. We'll chalk that up to a rivalry game.

Houston over Carolina (ATS: CAR +3)

I could see this one being a push, so I wouldn't bet ATS. Both are coming out of bye, and barring some incredibly drastic changes, Houston has the better team.

Dallas over LA Rams (ATS: DAL -6.5)

Very favorable matchup for Dallas, and the Rams are starting to show the flaws I thought we'd see from the start of the season.

Minnesota over Green Bay (ATS: MIN -1.5)

The Vikings are heating up just as Jordan Love is taking a step back.

New Orleans over Indianapolis (ATS: NO +1.5)

My numbers favor the Saints, and in a close matchup like this I'm going to go with that.

Miami over New England (ATS: NE +9.5)

New England fought hard in their win over Buffalo last week, and they lost by a touchdown to Miami back in week 1. So, they keep it close, but Miami wins their fourth straight at home against New England.

NY Giants over NY Jets (ATS: NYG +3)

My numbers favor the Giants, and they've been playing better with Taylor under Center, so I'll trust it.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville (ATS: PIT +2.5)

My gut wants to say the Jags, but my numbers are saying Pitt.

Atlanta over Tennessee (ATS: ATL -2.5)

With news that the Titans will be starting Will Levis and plan to use him and Malik Willis, I feel Atlanta is the much safer pick.

Philadelphia over Washington (ATS: WAS +6.5)

It's been 4 weeks since Washington lost to Philly by 3. My numbers favor Washington to cover, so I feel good saying Philly to win, Washington ATS.

Cleveland over Seattle (ATS: CLE +3)

Cleveland has taken care of business without Watson already this season, and they even started playing better last week after Watson left the game, so I'm not concerned there, and my numbers are in Cleveland's favor.

Baltimore over Arizona (ATS: BAL -8.5)

We've seen the extent of what the Cards are going to get with Dobbs throwing the ball. Baltimore dominates.

Kansas City over Denver (ATS: KC -7.5)

We've literally had one game between this matchup and the last time these two played. KC won that one by 11. The only real difference in that short span is that this game is in Denver.

Cincinnati over San Francisco (ATS: CIN +5.5)

My numbers favor Cincy and with the way the Niners have played the last two weeks I don't feel terrible about that. Hopefully Burrow and company come out of their bye week ready to go scorched earth.

LA Chargers over Chicago (ATS: LAC -8.5)

Numbers favor the Chargers, their defense has been getting lots of pressure lately, I like them to put Bagent in bad situations all game.

Detroit over Las Vegas (ATS: DET -8.5)

My numbers favor Detroit to win, but Vegas to cover the spread. I'm taking Detroit to cover after that performance we saw out of the Raiders last week. However, if Garoppolo plays, then take Vegas ATS.

Four Game Parlay (0-3): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: DAL -6.5, MIN -1.5, NO +1.5, CIN +5.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 9-5

QB Start: C.J. Stroud at Carolina

Carolina gave up 20+ fantasy points to QBs in their two weeks prior to their bye. Stroud had two subpar weeks prior to his bye, but he's hit 20+ three times so far this year. The battle of picks 1 and 2 should be fun, with Stroud coming out on top.

QB Sit: Trevor Lawrence at Pittsburgh

It's in Pitt, their defense has been more like their usual stifling self we've come to expect over the years, and Lawrence has been meh in fantasy as it is.

RB Record: 5-9

RB Start: Alexander Mattison at Green Bay

Mattison has been a fairly big disappointment this season, but fear not fantasy owners (at least for this one week). Green Bay's run defense has not been very good. So, bold prediction, Mattison scores Minnesota's first rushing touchdown of the season...or he gets sniped by Akers and we all go home unhappy.

RB Sit: Aaron Jones vs Minnesota

On the other side of that field from Mattison will be Jones, who is also having a rough season, but is still getting top 24 love in the projections. That doesn't make sense to me. He's been banged up and now he's going against a Vikings defense that's mostly shutdown opposing backs.

WR Record: 7-7

WR Start: Christian Kirk at Pittsburgh

A little confusing since I said to sit Lawrence, but Pitt allows a good chunk of points to Receivers and Kirk has been Lawrence's go to guy most of the season (double-digits in every week, but week 1).

WR Sit: DeAndre Hopkins vs Atlanta

With a rookie QB getting the start and Atlanta's A.J. Terrell in coverage, I'd sit D-Hop this week.

TE Record: 8-6

TE Start: Dalton Schultz at Carolina

A pass catcher to pair with Stroud. Schultz had 17 total targets in his two games before the bye week. Carolina allows a decent point total to TEs when you break it down by per reception. If Schultz maintains that target tally he should be in for a top 12 Tight End performance.

TE Sit: David Njoku at Seattle

With Watson out Njoku figures to see plenty more targets. No argument from me there, but the matchup isn't favorable, so I'd still say sit him.

Defense Record: 6-8

Defense Start: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee

Like I said in my game picks, the Titans are planning on giving the rookie QB, Will Levis, his first start. Get Atlanta's defense if you are streaming, and they're only $10 in Yahoo's DFS.

Defense Sit: San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati

The Niners defense has been a fantasy disappointment for me. In the last two weeks they've posted 9 total fantasy points. This will come down to which Cincinnati offense we see, but I'm banking on Cincy having used the bye week to figure out what was behind their struggles and fixing it to get back to being one of the top offenses in the league.