Lance's 2023 Week 9 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 76-46

Overall ATS: 29-31

Note: That ATS record is from week 1, I took weeks 2-5 off from picking ATS in order to wait for the stats to process out more.

Note: I'm using the spreads given by FanDuel, just to keep it uniform, though I would recommend if you're going to be betting on specific games to find the sportsbook that's giving half points so you can avoid pushes.

Pittsburgh over Tennessee (ATS: PIT -2.5)

Pittsburgh puts pressure on the rookie QB and forces him into bad decision making.

Miami over Kansas City (ATS: MIA +2.5)

I won't be surprised if last week's KC loss was them getting caught looking ahead to this game, which they'll be fully prepared for, but my numbers favor Miami, so I'm going with it.

Atlanta over Minnesota (ATS: ATL -4.5)

Jaren Hall is starting for the Vikings on Sunday, so I expect Atlanta to take care of business.

Seattle over Baltimore (ATS: Seattle +5.5)

Both of these teams are playing very good football right now. My numbers favor Seattle so that's who I'm taking.

Cleveland over Arizona (ATS: ARI +7.5)

Arizona is either starting a rookie QB or Kyler Murray in his first game back from injury, either way Cleveland's defense should get the job done. However, Cleveland's last three games have all been within 4 points (all three were [mostly] P.J. Walker games).

Green Bay over LA Rams (ATS: GB -3)

Both teams are trending in the wrong direction, but the Rams are also dealing with a banged up Stafford and Nacua.

Houston over Tampa Bay (ATS: HOU -3)

The numbers favor Houston who will be looking to bounce back after that poor showing against Carolina.

New England over Washington (ATS: NE -3.5)

Washington has struggled defensively all season and they just shipped off their starting Edge Rushers.

New Orleans over Chicago (ATS: NO -7.5)

Another Bagent game should be plus territory for the Saints' defense. Plus, Chicago's defense doesn't pose much of a threat.

Carolina over Indianapolis (ATS: CAR +2.5)

Carolina keeps the momentum going in their favor.

Las Vegas over NY Giants (ATS: NYG +2.5)

These +2.5 underdogs don't often cover and still lose the game, but my numbers favor the Giants to cover and despite Vegas' struggles (and recent staff changes) I have a hard time seeing the Giants winning.

Philadelphia over Dallas (ATS: DAL +3)

Last year they split 1-1 with each team winning at home, and I feel like that's what we're in store for again this season. +3 is push territory, so I wouldn't recommend betting on it unless you think Dallas is going to win.

Cincinnati over Buffalo (ATS: CIN -2.5)

Cincy has won their last three games after that poor start to the season, and they matchup well with Buffalo (as evidence by last year's playoff game).

NY Jets over LA Chargers (ATS: NYJ +3)

My numbers favor the Jets and honestly with the way their pass defense is shutting people down (184.4 YPG) I could see them doing enough to come away with the win.

Four Game Parlay (1-3): Based on FanDuel's ATS I'd go with: ATL -4.5, SEA +5.5, NE -2.5, CAR +2.5

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 10-6

QB Start: Zach Wilson vs LA Chargers

Two things working for Wilson here: first, this is the kind of game where there's a high chance he's going to have to throw a lot, and second, the Chargers give up a lot of fantasy points to QBs.

QB Sit: Will Levis at Pittsburgh

I expected a lot more out of Atlanta's defense last week. Every time I saw the Titans on screen and Levis making a great play it was downfield. I understand not having pro film on a rookie making his first start, but you should've at least scouted some of his college tape, cause that would've told you "likes to go deep and can do so well, iffy when forced to make decisions and put under duress." In other words, drop a Safety deep and put some pressure on him. Pittsburgh should be in a better position to keep Levis from exploding like he did a week ago.

RB Record: 6-10

RB Start: Zack Moss at Carolina

Taylor has been back for four weeks now and the backfield still remains close to a 50/50 split. Bonus, Moss got the goal line carry last week. Carolina has a solid pass defense, but a not so great run defense, so this feels like another Moss/Taylor led week for Indy.

RB Sit: Najee Harris vs Tennessee

The RBs that have done well fantasy-wise, against the Titans this year have gotten into the end zone. That's a tough thing to predict, so while the receptions and yardage were a promising sign from last week, I wouldn't go crazy with using him this week.

WR Record: 7-9

WR Start: Demario Douglas vs Washington

The Kendrick Bourne injury opens up a hole in New England's passing offense. Douglas has seen 13 total targets in the last two weeks, which is why I believe he'll be the one to fill it. Washington's defense has been awful against Receivers in fantasy.

WR Sit: Drake London vs Minnesota

He's gone for over 100 yards once this year and has only scored twice, and now he's banged up. Plus, since their outing against Carolina in week 4, the Vikings have only allowed two Receivers to score 10+ fantasy points on them.

TE Record: 8-8

TE Start: Cole Kmet

The rookie QB just showed his full willingness to target his Tight End (Kmet had 10 catches on 10 targets last week for those who missed it). New Orleans isn't exactly a great matchup, but 10 targets is hard to pass off as a fluke and Bagent was already named the starter for week 9.

TE Sit: Trey McBride at Cleveland

The Browns are a tough matchup in general, plus, McBride's stats have been carried by Dobbs' willingness to go target heavy to this position. Dobbs is now in Minnesota, sit McBride this week.

Defense Record: 7-9

Defense Start: Las Vegas Raiders vs NY Giants

Either Daniel Jones is starting at QB Sunday, or Tommy DeVito is. DeVito would be a major win for starting the Raiders defense. Even Jones starting would be a win. In the five games he played in before his injury, two opposing fantasy defenses scored 30+ points, one scored 11, and one scored 8. Vegas has scored 9+ fantasy points in three of their last four games.

Defense Sit: New York Jets vs LA Chargers

I know I wrote above that I'm taking the Jets and their defense is a big reason why, but the Chargers have only allowed one team to score above 4 fantasy points on them.