Lance's 2024/25 Division Round Predictions
Every week I put out my game predictions. Below is what I have for the divisional round.
Head-to-Head record: 188-90
Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 72-26 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 24-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 32-5, teams favored by 2.5 are 4-7, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 7-5, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 5-6. The spreads I was using for this were from CBS' pick'em challenge, but that's over with, so I'm pulling from a pool of sports betting sites and either taking the most common or going with the average (rounded to the closest .5).
Kansas City over Houston
Kansas City has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-8.5). Despite the drop-off on offense, and the repeated "black magic" to pull out a win at the end of just about every game, KC was pretty consistent this year, especially on defense. Houston, on the other hand, has been wildly sporadic. If the defense we saw last week shows up again, I wouldn't rule out an upset, but I also wouldn't put money on that happening.
Detroit over Washington
Detroit has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-9.5). My numbers suggest my Super Bowl prediction stays alive, so I'm going to run with it. This game should be a ton of fun though.
Philadelphia over LA Rams
Philly has the edge by my numbers. I'd flip a coin when choosing. I'd also suggest not betting on it at all. By my numbers, Philly actually has a chance to make the Super Bowl, the Rams don't. That doesn't guarantee the Eagles a spot in the NFC Championship, but it does make their chances of winning here more favorable.
Buffalo over Baltimore
Buffalo has all 5 categories, and they're underdogs (+1.5). If there's a team that legitimately worries me when it comes to ruining my Super Bowl prediction it's Baltimore. My numbers are in Buffalo's favor though, and I really hope it goes that way.
