Lance's 2024/25 Wildcard Predictions
Every week I put out my game predictions. Below is what I have for wildcard round.
Head-to-Head record: 184-88
Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 70-26 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 22-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 32-5, teams favored by 2.5 are 4-7, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 7-5, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 5-6. The spreads I was using for this were from CBS' pick'em challenge, but that's over with, so I'm pulling from a pool of sports betting sites and either taking the most common or going with the average (rounded to the closest .5).
LA Chargers over Houston
Chargers have the edge by my numbers. They're also favored and that has a ton to do with how Houston played for most of this season. I think it's going to be a first-round exit for the Texans as they look toward what needs to be done to get their star Quarterback back on track for 2025.
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Baltimore has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-9.5). Baltimore just finished tearing Pitt apart a couple weeks ago, and I'm not seeing a reason to believe this won't go the same way. The Steelers had a chance to keep themselves from this first round matchup, but they could only muster 17 points in week 18 against one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.
Buffalo over Denver
Buffalo has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-8.5). They've been my AFC Super Bowl rep since before the season, and I'm not changing that pick now, especially with the numbers in their favor.
Philadelphia over Green Bay
Philly has the edge by my numbers. I'm thinking Green Bay wasn't as much of a powerhouse as I thought at the midway point of the season, and that's not just because of how the week 18 game played out. Philly's offense at full strength to go with their top 3 defense, is going to be a force.
Washington over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay has all 5 categories, and they're favored by -3 by every sports betting site I could think to check. The bad part to this is if I round down to -2.5 my numbers would favor Washington, but if I round up to -3.5 they favor Tampa. Gut feeling is Washington pulls off the upset.
Minnesota over LA Rams
Minnesota has the edge by my numbers. This is going to be a tough one. The Rams beat Minnesota earlier in the season, and both teams are pretty healthy. Expect a slug fest, with KOC and Flores finding a way to take down McVay.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PLAYOFF BRACKET
Wildcard:
#5 LA Chargers over #4 Houston
#3 Baltimore over #6 Pittsburgh
#2 Buffalo over #7 Denver
#5 Minnesota over #4 LA Rams
#6 Washington over #3 Tampa Bay
#2 Philadelphia over #7 Green Bay
Divisional Round:
#1 Kansas City over #5 LA Chargers
#2 Buffalo over #3 Baltimore
#1 Detroit over #6 Washington
#2 Philadelphia over #5 Minnesota
Conference Championship:
#2 Buffalo over #1 Kansas City
#1 Detroit over #2 Philadelphia
Super Bowl:
#1 Detroit over #2 Buffalo
POSSIBLE SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS BY MY NUMBERS:
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions (36.43%)
2) Baltimore Ravens vs Philadelphia Eagles (34.63%)
3) Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions (31.54%)
