Lance's 2024 Hype Mock Draft

For this mock draft I use several things to try and make informed picks and trades:

-I look at what position other pundits have mocked to each team (on a large scale) so I can get an idea of what is expected for each team. And to also get an idea of who is favored to trade up or down.

-I checkout draft rumors for teams and players, as well as player hype leading up to the draft.

-I have a statistical system that gives each player a percentage for getting drafted in the first round. And utilizing every first round pick from the last eight years, I have a mean and median for each position that I compare every player's percentage to.

-With that mean and median, I use each team's tendencies to get an idea of what player they are likely to go with. Some teams have head coaches and general managers that have never made a first round pick, for them I will look at where they came from to get kind of an idea, but I don't heavily weigh that into the pick.

1) Chicago Bears (via Carolina)

Pick: QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Reason: It's the consensus and there seems to be absolutely nothing to suggest this won't be the pick.

2) Washington Commanders

Pick: QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

Reason: Sort of the same as with Chicago, I saw a couple Maye's out there, but for the most part it's Daniels.

3) **TRADE** Minnesota Vikings (via New England)

Pick: QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

Reason: Here's my prediction for Minnesota: they're either trading up for Maye or not trading up at all. So, if New England rejects their trade offer but decides to shock everyone and take MHJ or Alt, I would expect Minnesota to try and move up to 4 for Maye, and so on. Otherwise they stay at 11 and take McCarthy or Penix if they fall to them.

4) Arizona Cardinals

Pick: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State)

Reason: I think the hype behind McCarthy going this high is smoke from the teams in this area to try and drive up the value of their pick. So, when Maye goes at three, Arizona doesn't find the trade partner they think they will, and end up staying put and making the easy selection in MHJ.

5) Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

Reason: A little bit of a surprise, but really not a big one. I've seen a couple others predicting this as well. Look at what Harbaugh and company have done this offseason and Tackle becomes the most obvious selection. He's building up his power run scheme! Fuaga slides in at Right Tackle and suddenly whichever back is leading the way for them becomes a tantalizing fantasy option.

6) **TRADE** New York Jets (via NY Giants)

Pick: WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

Reason: I'll get to the Giants decision to trade back at pick 10. The Jets wanting to move up is not a secret. Who they want to trade up for kind of is. I personally think they will leap at the chance to land Nabers if they are given the opening.

7) Tennessee Titans

Pick: OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

Reason: Everyone in Tennessee breathes a sigh of relief when Alt falls into their lap. It looked questionable at times, they strongly considered swapping picks with the Chargers to avoid LAC taking him, or the Jets getting in front of them to steal him away. But they stayed put and it worked out.

8) Atlanta Falcons

Pick: WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

Reason: Speaking of staying put...Odunze and McCarthy have fallen to 8 and Atlanta's phone is blowing up. They listen to Denver, Vegas, Jacksonville, and a few others, but they decide the offers aren't worth it and elect to add another playmaker on the offense for their new, expensive Quarterback.

9) **TRADE** New Orleans Saints (via Chicago)

Pick: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

Reason: The Saints watch Fuaga and Alt both land in the top seven and they start to panic a little. They've heard the rumors that Philadelphia wants to come up for a Lineman, they know Vegas is a wildcard and that there are several teams in the 20s desperate for O-Line help. So, they make their move first, coming up and getting their new starting Left Tackle, allowing Trevor Penning to move to the right side in the event Ramczyk really can't go this season.

10) **TRADE** New York Giants (via NY Jets)

Pick: QB Michael Penix Jr. (Washington)

Reason: Woah! Penix, not McCarthy...am I crazy? Only kind of, but not about this. I think the Giants were hyping up their feelings about McCarthy to try and get someone to move into pick 4 or 5 for McCarthy so that the value of the 6th pick would go up for a team looking for either MHJ or Nabers. When the Chargers took a Tackle the value of the 6th pick did go up, the Jets called, they jumped on the offer, moved down and still got the guy they actually wanted. Penix. Based on the few picks the Giants have made in the Schoen/Daboll era, Penix fits the numbers better than McCarthy does.

11) **TRADE** New England Patriots (via Minnesota)

Pick: QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

Reason: New England traded down to eleven with the intention of taking a Tackle or a Receiver, but McCarthy landing right in their laps after what they got for pick 3 makes it too big of a win to pass on.

12) **TRADE** Philadelphia Eagles (via Denver)

Pick: OG Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Reason: The top three Tackles are gone, but that doesn't stop the Eagles from moving up for a Lineman. I have Fautanu listed at Guard, because regardless of what the future may hold, that is the position he would start out at for Philly. Had he been around at pick 13, maybe the Raiders would take him, and maybe he'd fill their need at Right Tackle. Philly doesn't take that chance.

13) **TRADE** Indianapolis Colts

Pick: TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Reason: The belief is the Colts love Bowers, and some think they'll trade up into the top ten for him, while several others believe they'll be able to steal him at 15. I think he slides, but I believe if the draft works out the way it does in my mock, then Indy will do what they can to get in front of Chicago and also to take Vegas out of the equation. They are two teams that are possible landing spots for Bowers if he falls out of the top ten.

14) **TRADE** Chicago Bears (via New Orleans)

Pick: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU)

Reason: Even if Bowers were to get to this point, I still think they would pass. The reason being, if they took him they would want to use him mostly out of the Slot (while keeping Kmet in the traditional Tight End role), and since the newly acquired Keenan Allen does a good chunk of his damage from the Slot when in three Receiver sets, Thomas would be the better fit.

15) **TRADE** Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Reason: I don't think QB will be the pick for Vegas unless someone from above falls, or Nix slips to the second round. They may take a shot at someone like Michael Pratt, Spencer Rattler, or maybe a late-round shot at Jordan Travis and hope he gets back to his pre-injury form. But, I believe they'll be content running with either Minshew or O'Connell and looking to next year's draft for a more permanent fix. That leaves several other positions that could be addressed, but I believe Corner is that top target for them, and Mitchell fits Telesco's M.O. The fact that every top defender was still available at 13, allowed Vegas the opportunity to make that trade with Indy.

16) Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Edge Jared Verse (Florida State)

Reason: Take your pick Seattle. You want a Defensive Lineman? Murphy is still here. An Offensive Lineman? How about Latham, or perhaps Barton. An Edge seems highly likely with the draft falling like this...pick one, they're all still there. There are two that fit Schneider's tendencies when it comes to the numbers: Verse and Chop Robinson. I went with Verse because he's rated higher by just about everyone else, however, no one should be surprised if this pick ends up being Robinson.

17) Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

Reason: Jacksonville tried to go up and get Odunze, but failed. They hoped Brian Thomas would slide, but that fell through too. They could potentially still go Receiver, but with Arnold sitting in their laps they go BPA at a position of need.

18) Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: DL Byron Murphy II (Texas)

Reason: Kind of a similar situation to the Jags. Do they go Murphy or Receiver? I believe they either A) really do plan to force Higgins to play out the season on the franchise tag so they can worry about Receiver next year while also getting to see Iosivas and Jones' growth in year two. Or B) they plan to use Higgins to get back into the first round later to select a Receiver that slides. In either case, Murphy becomes the obvious choice here.

19) Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Edge Dallas Turner

Reason: I've seen a lot of "the Rams take (insert top defensive lineman here) to replace Aaron Donald." I was on that wagon early on in this process. But then I realized what a terrible choice and situation that would be for said Defensive Lineman. It would be like when Mac Jones had to follow Tom Brady. It's just not fair to that player. Instead, the Rams get a stud Edge Rusher who could go anywhere between pick 8 and here. They're defense gets a boost, but in a slightly different manner.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: OT JC Latham (Alabama)

Reason: The pick has to be Offensive Line. But which guy? Latham and Mims seem like the most likely guys, with Powers-Johnson and Guyton being sleeper options. I think they go Latham, and then they use OTAs, training camp and preseason to figure out which side of the Line they want Broderick Jones on and which side they want Latham.

21) **TRADE** Washington Commanders (via Miami)

Pick: OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

Reason: Washington trading back in makes a ton of sense and Miami being a target to trade out also makes a ton of sense. The general consensus for Miami seems to be interior O-Line, and with Fautanu gone it would behoove them to trade back, gain draft capital and snag JPJ or Frazier or maybe someone like Zinter later. Meanwhile, the Commanders get up ahead of several OT needy teams, and take someone who could be their long-term answer at Left Tackle for their shiny new QB.

22) **TRADE** Denver Broncos (via Philadelphia)

Pick: QB Bo Nix (Oregon)

Reason: It's possible that this happens because Denver fails to move up for the guy they want. I personally think Nix is the guy they want and the move down is in their best interest. I also believe Nix is going to be a good to very good QB in the right system and Sean Payton's offense is one of those systems he could succeed in.

23) **TRADE** New England Patriots (via Minnesota)

Pick: WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Reason: There are rumors that Minnesota may use Justin Jefferson as trade bait to get up to pick three and if that ends up being the case, I don't see this pick leaving their hands. But I will believe a Jefferson trade happens when I see it, so for now the Vikings use both picks to move up to 3, and New England snags the "best available" WR/OL they can at this point to start building around McCarthy.

24) Dallas Cowboys

Pick: IOL Graham Barton (Duke)

Reason: The Cowboys need to rebuild the O-Line. Left Tackle, Offensive Guard or Center, it doesn't really make a difference. Barton can either take over at Center for them, or slide in at Guard and allow them to move Tyler Smith to Left Tackle. Some believe he can play Tackle at this level too, I am not one of those people.

25) Green Bay Packers

Pick: OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

Reason: Bakhtiari is gone and say what you will, but I don't see Rasheed Walker as a legitimate replacement. Whether or not Green Bay does remains to be seen, but if they don't then this pick should absolutely be Tackle, and Morgan is the top rated Left Tackle remaining (not my highest rated, but he seems to be everyone else's).

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

Reason: Edge is the general consensus here, but my numbers suggest not Edge. I think the pick either ends up being Jackson Powers-Johnson, or a Corner. Nate Wiggins fits Licht's numbers from my system, and he fills the hole left open by the Carlton Davis trade.

27) Arizona Cardinals (via Houston)

Pick: Edge Chop Robinson (Penn State)

Reason: Obviously Edge with Robinson and Latu remaining and a big need right? Or maybe Corner with DeJean and McKinstry still around? Well there isn't a lot to go off of with the new regime's only first round pick last year, but I would say Robinson comes the closest to that pick.

28) Buffalo Bills

Pick: WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)

Reason: Buffalo can say what they want about not needing a WR1, but Allen isn't Mahomes and they clearly aren't Kansas City. I will buy that they won't sell the farm to move up for someone, but if Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and/or Ladd McConkey are available here, I believe they will take one of them. Worthy gives them a Tyreek-esque speedster.

29) Detroit Lions

Pick: Edge Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

Reason: Detroit's war-room screams shouts of joy when Latu falls all the way to them. There's been more and more talk about his neck recently and even subtle things like that leading up to the draft have led to falls. I think he's the best Edge Rusher in the draft and the Lions would be getting a steal. Look out NFC North.

30) Baltimore Ravens

Pick: OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

Reason: The Ravens' O-Line is their biggest need and I don't think I'd get a lot of push-back on that statement. Based on the pundits' general consensus, Mims seems like the most likely next Tackle to be taken. He's a Right Tackle, a need for Baltimore, so the fit is there. I would like to note Roger Rosengarten as a sleeper here. The biggest concern with Mims is him staying healthy. The Ravens have dealt with that when it comes to their all-star Left Tackle, Ronnie Stanley, so they could see that concern with Mims and remove him from their board. In that case, Rosengarten would be the next highest rated guy.

31) **TRADE** Houston Texans (via San Francisco)

Pick: CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Reason: Houston has the ammo to move back into the first. San Fran becomes very open for business after watching Guyton, Morgan and Mims all go in the 10 picks leading up to their pick. Houston made Corner a target during free agency, but they basically stockpiled guys they hope they're able to turn around, so Corner should still be a target. As guys like Wiggins, DeJean and McKinstry start to slide they get on the phones and find a trade partner in the Niners so they can get back in and snag DeJean.

32) Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

Reason: Wide Receiver is once again the favored target, though it's not unanimous, and once again the Chiefs show they value other positions higher. After trading away L'Jarius Sneed, they're thrilled to see McKinstry slip to them and they happily pair him with McDuffie.