Lance's 2024 NFL Season Predictions

Super Bowl Prediction

Detroit Lions over Buffalo Bills

Reason: Just like last year this is based on my numbers. For reference, I started running them through a series of formulas I worked on two years ago. That year Kansas City vs Philadelphia was 4th on my list of preseason Super Bowl possibilities. Last year, San Francisco vs Kansas City was 2nd. I had some extra time on my hands this year, so I went deeper into it to try and narrow down my list even further, and then tested against the previous two years to see where the Super Bowl matchups ranked. Had I started doing this two years ago there would've been 9 potential matchups (instead of 24) for 2022 and 6 (instead of 13) for 2023, with KC v Philly in 2022 and SF vs KC in 2023 having the second highest percentages for each of their years. I understand narrowing down too far could easily leave me empty handed, but it makes it feel a lot better if the matchup does come from my list. My list is at 6 possible matchups again this year and Detroit vs Buffalo is 2nd, so there you go. If this matchup does happen, my numbers favor the Lions to get the win.

Super Bowl Betting

Buffalo vs Detroit is at +5000, which could lead to a pretty solid payout. Out of the 6 possible SB matchups you'll see in my list at the bottom of the article, there are only two longer odds than BUF v DET. So, if you're looking to place a small bet now, with the chance for a big payout come February, you could choose one of them instead. They both feature Atlanta, with Buffalo vs Atlanta going at +10,000 and Baltimore vs Atlanta at +7500.

Super Bowl I Would Love To See

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings

Reason: The biggest reason this would be super cool is the fact that there's never been a rookie QB to start a Super Bowl and this would allow two to go head to head. And to further that, it would be the two that almost everyone had as 4th and 5th on their draft boards, behind the guys that actually went 1, 2 and 3. And then there's the Sean Payton vs the Vikings aspect. When he won his Super Bowl in the 2009-10 season, he took down Minnesota to get there and of course everyone knows about the Bounty-gate that followed. And then there's the two most recent playoff matchups between the two featuring the Minneapolis Miracle, and the "was it a push-off?" Kyle Rudolph touchdown in OT (it wasn't). This game would offer the rare cross-conference rivalry feel, making it all the more enjoyable, and it would give us the matchup we should've gotten at the end of the 1998-99 season.

AWARDS

MVP Prediction

My Pick: QB Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia)

Why: On FanDuel he's +1600, which is good to tie for 7th highest. Based on my numbers he's got the best chance of winning the award. Personally, I feel he's going out there this year with a chip on his shoulder after all the nonsense that was spewed this offseason. I also believe Dallas takes a small step backward, which allows Philly to run the NFC East, maybe even the NFC in general.

Favorite: QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City)

Why:  Mahomes is the favorite and I'm not sure we'll see a season anytime soon where he doesn't enter the year as the favorite. K.C. obviously remains a top contender, and Mahomes is the biggest factor behind that, so no need to scratch your head about why he's +500.

Longshot: WR Justin Jefferson (Minnesota)

Why: If they aren't going to seriously consider CMC when he was the biggest cog in the Niners offensive machine last season, then it's really not worth betting on a non-QB anymore. However, if you are dead-set on doing so then you want to look for two things: Superstar talent, and a player that is guaranteed to be THE reason behind their team outperforming expectations. Think Adrian Peterson in 2012 when the Vikings were coming off a 3-13 season and had no business making the playoffs. Jefferson fits that mold. He's a definite superstar, no question there. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing 7-10 year, and it looks like they'll start the year with Sam Darnold under Center and an almost guarantee they'll transition to the rookie top ten pick at some point. That means, if the Vikings offense can start off strong and not skip a beat when the QB switch is made, all eyes will be on Jefferson as the biggest reason why. He's +10,000 for FanDuel right now, and in my opinion he's a much better bet than Deshaun Watson who's at +7500 or Will Levis who sits at +10,000 with him.

Offensive Player of the Year Prediction

My Pick: QB Dak Prescott (Dallas)

Why: This is where things get a little weird. The last time a QB won OPOY and didn't also win MVP in the same year was 2011 when Rodgers beat out Brees for MVP in one of the biggest robberies ever. One of the bigger reasons why that happened was that Rodgers led the Packers to a league leading 15-1 record, while Brees and the Saints finished at a paltry 13-3 (I kid of course). I already mentioned the chip that Hurts has; Prescott has one too. The primary motivation behind it is that monster contract he reportedly wants, but don't count out all the articles questioning if he's worth it, so even if he does get paid before the season he'll still want to prove his worth. I can see his numbers being a little better than Hurts' leading to OPOY, while Philly goes 15-2 compared to Dallas' 11-6 (or something similar) landing Hurts MVP. Prescott is +8000 on FanDuel and by my numbers he is the favorite to win it.

Favorite: WR Tyreek Hill (Miami) and RB Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco)

Why: Hill is the slight favorite for most of the betting sites with a Christian McCaffrey repeat being the other favorite. On FanDuel Hill is +800 and CMC is +900. The issue with Hill and CMC is that they need one of two things to happen: either 1, they need to completely dominate their own position, or 2, they need to really dominate their stats from last season. CMC has the better shot at dominating his position, but after a 339 touch season and a new big contract, I think the Niners back off a little bit to try and avoid injury, which also hurts his chances of beating out last year's numbers. Hill is unlikely to dominate a position that has a lot of contenders at the top, and making a pretty big jump from his stat line last year (1,799 receiving yards, 13 receiving touchdowns) is asking a whole lot. Neither are a good bet in my opinion.

Longshot: RB Kenneth Walker (Seattle)

Why: A tough call, there isn't really anyone I like in the +10,000 or more range. Walker is +15,000 on FanDuel, so I'll go with him since he has a decently high chance to win OPOY by my numbers. There are two reasons why I would suggest not going this route though. The first is that I believe Charbonnet will have a much bigger role in the offense this year. The second is that we don't know what Ben Grubbs' offense will look like. At Washington last year they ran a variation of the Spread and dropped back to pass almost 62% of the time. That doesn't usually fly in the NFL though, so you are left wondering how much is he going to adjust his scheme? However, there are a few things working in Walker's favor. Seattle did improve the interior of their O-Line some this offseason, they hired a defensive minded Head Coach who is coming from a team that's had a run first mentality for a while now, and he essentially has had a monopoly on Seattle's rushing touchdowns, scored 75% of them, since he entered the league.

Defensive Player of the Year Prediction

My Pick: DL Christian Wilkins (Las Vegas)

Why: By my number Wilkins is the frontrunner, and honestly I don't hate the idea. He's got the skillset and has already been a backfield disruptor. Now he gets to lineup on the same D-Line as Maxx Crosby, who will draw most of the attention away. Also, the Raiders are reportedly shifting Tyree Wilson inside making him the one teams should focus more on when it comes to passing downs, further opening the door for Wilkins to pad the stats. And the cherry on top is that he's a +20,000 longshot on FanDuel.

Favorite: Edge Micah Parsons (Dallas)

Why: Parsons is +500 and once again the favorite for DPOY. He's ever the threat for the sack title which will keep him as a frontrunner for the award, especially since it's been dominated by pass rushers and a pair of Defensive Lineman (Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt) over the last decade and a half almost. Parsons wouldn't be a waste of money, but I would prefer to spend a little for a chance at a lot.

Longshot: S Taylor Rapp (Buffalo)

Why: What do you do when your pick is a longshot? Find a bigger longshot. That was tough to do, and I'm not even sure this counts cause Rapp isn't even listed as an option on the list that I go on for these. If you can find him, I would expect his odds to be even longer than +20,000. Why not Rapp though? He went to Buffalo in 2023 to be their third option at Safety behind Poyer and Hyde. Now both of them are gone and it should be Rapp's show along with either the rookie or Mike Edwards. Rapp had a decent start to his career with the Rams, the talent is definitely there and Sean McDermott is a wizard when it comes to coaching up Defensive Backs. If Buffalo's defense is going to get back on track they're going to need some of these new faces in the secondary to take a big step forward.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

My Pick: QB Jayden Daniels (Washington)

Why:  Daniels is tied for second favorite at FanDuel with Marvin Harrison Jr. at +650. But he's also my favorite to win it by my numbers. Like the actual favorite below, Daniels should be the starter week 1 no questions, and he has weapons around him to allow him to shine. And then there's the rushing aspect. Williams, Maye, Nix, McCarthy, they're all mobile, but Daniels is on a whole other level. If he brings enough of both dimensions to his game this season he can literally run away with the award, similar to a previous #2 pick by Washington (RGIII), hopefully Daniels' career isn't derailed by injuries though.

Favorite: QB Caleb Williams (Chicago)

Why: I believe his current +135 is the actual worst betting odds of any player for any award. But it makes sense. He's the #1 pick, the next phenom poster boy, and he has all the weapons around him he could possibly ask for. That's exactly why I wouldn't place this bet. If he finishes even slightly under expectations he won't win this award. The bar is already set too high, he needs to walk in and immediately start shattering records.

Longshot: RB Blake Corum (LA Rams)

Why: With the sheer number of Quarterbacks that will likely be starting early this year, it's going to be tough for a non-QB to beat them out. Corum may be in the best position to do so though. The Rams want to run the ball, his current competition has been known to find himself on the trainer's table, and he's already got some OTA hype going. Plus, he was a touchdown machine at Michigan. He's only +5000 for FanDuel, but it is worth noting that since 2010 +5000 was the longest longshot to win the award (Alvin Kamara in 2017).

Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

My Pick: CB Terrion Arnold (Detroit)

Why: By my numbers Laiatu Latu has the best chance to win the award, but he's also one of the favorites, so I'm going with the #2 on my list. Bonus, Arnold is +1200, much more favorable payout than Latu's +430. Detroit's defense figures to take a step forward and if they do, Arnold will be a big reason why. The Lions' pass defense last year wasn't scaring anyone, they allowed the 6th most passing yards and 6th most passing touchdowns. An additional stat I noticed while going through all this was that Hutchinson had over 100 pressures last year, but only had 11.5 sacks. That's usually a sign that either the defender doesn't have the speed to get home, not the case with Hutchinson, or that their secondary's coverage wasn't good enough to force the QB to hang onto the ball just a little longer. There are plenty of ways Arnold will be able to show how valuable of a defender he is as a rookie. He'll need the flashy stats too if he's going to beat out the Edge Rushers though.

Favorites: Edge Laiatu Latu (Indianapolis) and Edge Dallas Turner (Minnesota)

Why: They're both +430 on FanDuel, and both are heading into situations that should create lots of opportunities for them to shine. As I said above, Latu is at the top by my numbers, and as the first defender taken with a proven knack for getting after the Quarterback, I'm not surprised to see him as the favorite. Same can kind of be said for Turner. He was the expected first defender to go, there's lots of hype around him and he lands in a situation where he won't necessarily start out as the focal point on pass rushing downs (Greenard should), and that will give him the opportunity to shine early. I will say, if you insist on betting on one of them, go with Latu.

Longshot: DL Braden Fiske (LA Rams)

Why: From what I could dig up, the year Marshon Lattimore won DROY he wasn't even on the preseason betting lists. So, that's the biggest longshot of the last 14 years. The next longest was +3500 (Joey Bosa). Both of those seem incredibly strange to write out since Lattimore was pick 11 in 2017 and Bosa was pick 3 in 2016, but I digress. I'll stick with the +3500 though and suggest Fiske. He's got ginormous shoes to fill, and the Aaron Donald shadow is probably going to hinder his chances, but he's also a phenomenal athlete and he'll have Kobie Turner (the guy that should've won DROY last year) taking the heat off him.

Coach of the Year Prediction

My Pick: Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota)

Why: I was kind of surprised to see O'Connell at the top of my list, but after giving it some thought, it makes sense. There are a few things you want to look for when it comes to this award. One is a team talented enough to outplay expectations, or a very talented team with low expectations. Another is a team that has one key potential issue that everyone knows about and if they can get past it they'll look even better on paper. And the last is a team in a winnable situation. O'Connell has all of those things: Team is coming off a 7-10 season and their O/U is 7.5, they've got a QB conundrum that features Sam Darnold and a rookie that most people don't think is pro ready, and their division does feature Detroit, a competitive Green Bay team, and a Chicago team that everyone believes is on their way up, but the Vikings have the talent to compete with Green Bay and Chicago, finish in the double-digit win totals, and make the playoffs. His current odds are +2000.

Favorite: Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers)

Why: I was a little surprised to see Harbaugh as the favorite at first, and then I realized his team hits on all of the things I mentioned with O'Connell, plus he has the benefit of Justin Herbert, AND he's been there and done that. Harbaugh won the award in his first year with the Niners back in 2011. That year he also had the benefit of a very weak NFC West. Barring a Mahomes injury, that won't hold up this year. His odds are at +900, personally I'd prefer someone else, but I understand if you're all in on him.

Longshot: Doug Pederson (Jacksonville)

Why: +6000 are the longest odds, so it kind of comes down to where do I draw the line for the longshot label here? I felt like +4000 for Pederson was fair to view him as the longshot. This Jacksonville team disappointed in 2023, going 9-8 and missing the playoffs. But I think they'll get back on track this year, and it'll be a race to the division championship between them and Houston. If the Jags can win 11 or 12 games and the AFC South, Pederson will be in the thick of the COY discussions.

The 6 Potential Super Bowl Matchups by my Numbers:

1) Kansas City vs Detroit (34.11%)

2) Buffalo vs Detroit (33.11%)

3) Baltimore vs Philadelphia (33.03%)

4) Baltimore vs Atlanta (31.43%)

5) Buffalo vs Atlanta (31.09%)

6) Kansas City vs Atlanta (30.48%)