Lance's 2024 Rookie QB Dynasty Outlook
The guys that could make an immediate impact
Caleb Williams (Chicago): I'm on record as saying I think his character/attitude are going to lead to his downfall as a pro, but there’s no denying the talent he has. And as a bonus, the Bears stockpiled talent this offseason to surround him with. There’s no excuse for him not to succeed as long as the Line holds up.
Jayden Daniels (Washington): Easily the most dynamic of all the QBs taken. He also landed in a solid situation. He has the stud Receiver in Terry McLaurin, the veteran pass catching specialist out of the backfield in Austin Ekeler, and an O-Line that made a nice little jump this past season. I also love the addition of Tight End Ben Sinnott in the second round to go with the Zach Ertz signing. He’ll need Jahan Dotson to step up in that all important third year, or a surprise rookie debut season from Luke McCaffrey.
J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota): The best situation any QB could’ve landed in. The Vikings had one of the top pass blocking lines last year, but they’ll need whichever guy that takes over the Left Guard spot to keep up the good work. He has one of, if not the best Receiver in the league in Jefferson, a star in the making in Jordan Addison, a top three Tight End in T.J. Hockenson (when he gets back on the field), and they added Aaron Jones this offseason. Plus, the coach is a mastermind.
Bo Nix (Denver): People can knock him for his age all they want, it doesn’t take away from what he did in college, which is finishing with the highest single season completion percentage ever. That’s why he was the perfect fit with Sean Payton to me. Who knows what they’ll do with Courtland Sutton, and if they trade him then Nix will be relying on some youngsters that will need to get their careers jump started in a big way to help him out. On the plus side, one of those youngsters would be his college teammate, and favorite target, Troy Franklin. I will say that this one is mostly because of the match with his coach.
The guy whose team will need to prove they want him to succeed
Drake Maye (New England): I love Maye, he was my QB1 in this draft. But he landed in the worst situation out of all the rookie QBs. New England’s line is a big concern, especially since they didn’t sign or draft a true Left Tackle, so either Caedan Wallace or Chukwuma Okorafor will be playing out of place, or they’ll be using a guy that’s never played more than 300 snaps in a season in his 7 year career. They drafted Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round to add to their receiving corps, and I think he immediately becomes the most talented Receiver on the roster, but I still don’t think they have a true WR1 on this roster. Lots of factors that could drag Maye down immediately and stunt his growth.
Could take on an immediate role if the incumbent isn’t fully recovered
Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta) and Jordan Travis (NY Jets): Both guys land with teams whose starting Quarterback will be returning from an Achilles injury. Granted Penix went in round 1 and Travis in round 5, but I believe we would’ve seen Travis go much earlier, maybe even as a 7thQB taken in round 1, had he not suffered his own season ending injury at Florida State last year. Both situations would be enviable starting spots if they are thrust into the lineup because Cousins or Rodgers aren’t able to go or they re-aggravate the injury.
The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future
Spencer Rattler (New Orleans): I had an undrafted grade on him, so that's the starting point. I heard all the buzz leading up to the draft and even saw some people listing him as a potential first round pick late in the process. Thankfully, no team was that dumb. He ended up going in the fifth round to the Saints and now there's some quiet buzz from people who seem to think he could beat out Carr for the QB1 spot. First off, Rattler is not the 2012 version of Russell Wilson and Carr is not Matt Flynn. Secondly, Rattler is still riding the coattails of his high school rating and his stats from his first season starting at Oklahoma. And lastly, he's not even guaranteed to be the QB2, the Saints just used a 4th round pick on Jake Haener. Don't expect him to finally put all the pieces together now that he's a pro.
Joe Milton III (New England): Here's the thing, Milton has been all hype since his playing days at Michigan. He was given the job there and lost it due to poor play. He transferred to Tennessee and lost out on the starting job to Hendon Hooker. And in his only season starting under Josh Heupel he managed to make that offense far less exciting than it had been just a season earlier under Hooker. I won't be surprised if New England decides to move him to Tight End once they get a good look at him at QB.
Devin Leary (Baltimore): A potential backup for Lamar Jackson? Maybe, but I doubt it. He was another overhyped player because he had one good season three years ago. In his only season at Kentucky he played only slightly better than Will Levis did in his final year there. If what was said leading up to the 2023 draft is true, then Levis was hurt for that season. What was Leary's excuse?
Michael Pratt (Green Bay): The only one out of the four that I think has any sort of chance. He'll get to sit and learn under a solid offensive minded Head Coach. He could theoretically show enough in preseason over the next four years to sign with someone that's not looking to spend highly to draft a rookie so they grab a couple of players to compete to start for a season, or get traded in a couple years under similar circumstances. But the chances of something like that happening just aren't very high, and even if he was to get that chance I view him more as a game manager, and less of a fantasy darling.
