Lance's 2024 Rookie RB Dynasty Outlook
Could be the immediate starter, but….
Jonathon Brooks (Carolina - 2nd round): He went in the 2nd round, the Panthers RBs last year are back after a lackluster 2023 season, and Carolina is wanting to do whatever they can to help Bryce Young grow which will mean running the ball effectively to force defenses to respect it. All things that point to Brooks having an impact right away. BUT he’s coming off an ACL tear that happened back in November. Recovery on ACL tears has been much faster than what they used to be, but it’s still going to hang over his draft value until we see him hit the field.
Jaylen Wright (Miami - 4th round): Explosive back with good size, a perfect fit for Miami. BUT he’ll either need to beat out Mostert to have a significant role this year, or he’ll need an injury to one of the guys ahead of him.
Tyrone Tracy (NY Giants - 5th round): Tracy was my sleeper back and he landed in a situation that could pay immediate dividends. The Giants did sign Devin Singletary this offseason, but Singletary hasn’t been a bell-cow back at any of his previous stops, so the door is cracked for Tracy to see work right away. BUT he’ll need to outperform Singletary if he’s going to be a regular in your lineups this year.
Kimani Vidal (LA Chargers - 6th round): It’s pretty clear that Harbaugh wants to run the ball, which is why it surprised me that the Chargers didn’t take a back until the 6th round. They signed Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins this offseason. Dobbins is coming off his second major injury in his four year career and there’s no guarantee he’s good to go right away. Vidal has speed and explosiveness, and would be a great compliment to Edwards’ thunder. BUT as a 6th round pick, he’ll need to prove it first.
Could get interesting early
Trey Benson (Arizona - 3rd round): James Conner will be 29 before the season starts, he’s an aggressive runner, and he has a history of nagging injuries. That tells me that the Benson pick was probably less of an “oh, well this is the best guy available at this pick,” and more of a calculated selection. Even if Conner stays healthy and productive all year, he’s still on the final year of his contract.
Blake Corum (LA Rams - 3rd round): Kyren Williams was a force last year and he still has two years left on his rookie deal, so why the Corum pick in round 3? Injuries. Williams is a little undersized and has dealt with various injuries already in his two pro seasons. The Rams have been known to play the hot hand, one nagging injury to Williams and the door opens wide for Corum.
Ray Davis (Buffalo - 4th round): They gave James Cook 237 carries last season, that’s more than double the highest number of carries he had at Georgia. Cook is also not the biggest guy, which leads me to believe that the 211 pound Ray Davis selection was meant to give them a 1-2 punch out of the backfield.
Deep Sleepers and Handcuffs
Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay - 4th round): More of a receiving back than anything else. Rachaad White does it all for Tampa though, so unless they show signs of using Irving as a third down back, or a White injury occurs, I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into Irving.
Will Shipley (Philadelphia - 4th round): Saquon Barkley’s injury history is not a secret, so if Shipley can beat out Gainwell (and hang onto the ball), he could be Barkley’s primary handcuff which could have lucrative results.
Isaac Guerendo (San Francisco - 4th round): Another handcuff for a star with an injury rap sheet. I love Guerendo, I’m disappointed in the landing spot, but if something happens to CMC you better look out!
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis (NY Jets - 4th & 5th round): I was going to list them in the category below cause talk about a terrible situation to land in. But by all accounts Israel Abanikanda is not having a good start to the offseason workouts, so the door is open for one of these two to steal the RB2 job and handcuff themselves to Hall. I like Davis more, but the draft capital suggests Allen would get the first crack.
Jawhar Jordan (Houston - 6th round): Joe Mixon is wearing down, though he’s never been a real efficient back in general. Houston’s new coaching staff had no issues with dumping Dameon Pierce on the bench last season, so I would expect Jordan to get every opportunity to beat him out in training camp for the primary backup role.
Dylan Laube (Las Vegas - 6th round): Best worst-case scenario for Zamir White? The Raiders didn’t sign a big name in free agency and they didn’t draft a back until the 6th round, so all signs point to White getting the starting job. However, Laube is a skilled receiver and the Raiders taking him was likely to use him as a pass catching compliment to White starting out. He’s going to have to prove himself if he is going to have a more prominent role beyond that this year.
Blake Watson (Denver - Undrafted): A lot of moving parts to this. First, Javonte Williams will be two years removed from his major injury at the start of the season, which means he needs to prove he’s back to his former self. Second, the Broncos really liked their undrafted back from last year, Jaleel McLaughlin, and they still have Samaje Perine on the roster. Third, they drafted Audric Estime in the fifth round. Watson’s Combine invite must have been lost in the mail though, cause it seems like a vast oversight to not invite a back that had 4,041 total yards and 33 total touchdowns over the last three seasons. He also went out at his pro day and ran a 4.40 forty, and jumped 41.5” in the vertical and 11’03” in the Broad. Somehow he went undrafted. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes past McLaughlin, Perine and Estime for the RB2 role, definitely someone to keep an eye on and ear out for this training camp.
The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future
Marshawn Lloyd (Green Bay - 3rd round): I think I've mentioned it before, somewhere, but Lloyd is a fumble risk. He had 8 fumbles in college on 323 total touches (per PFF), that's 1 fumble per 40.4 touches. Fumbles aren't the end all, be all for RBs, but it's definitely a good way to find yourself with a one-way ticket to the bench. I'm just nowhere near as high on him as everyone else seems to be.
Audric Estime (Denver - 5th round): Could carve out a short yardage role as a pro, but his athleticism has me doubting any real potential he could carry beyond that.
Rasheen Ali (Baltimore - 5th round): I had an undrafted grade on him. I also realize that he may have gotten himself into a Day 3 grade had he been healthy enough to run. But the team he landed on, the potential depth chart spot, the health and the grade all have me feeling like Ali is a proceed with caution candidate.
Keilan Robinson (Jacksonville - 5th round): Undersized speedster who lacked production in college which had me scratching my head as to why the Jags took him in the 5th. From what I can gather, he's likely to be given a shot as a kick returner.
Jase McClellan (Atlanta - 6th round): Barring a Tyler Allgeier trade, McClellan will be buried behind Bijan Robinson and Allgeier for potentially the next two seasons. Not much value there. For the love of everything football, please trade Tyler Allgeier Atlanta!!
