Lance's 2024 Rookie WR Dynasty Outlook
The clear number 1
Marvin Harrison (Arizona - 1st round): I would be surprised to see anyone make an argument against this.
The guys that are more likely to make a bigger impact this year than the rest
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville - 1st round): Lawrence is the kind of QB that can support two starting Receivers as long as he gets consistent play, something Calvin Ridley did not provide him last season. Thomas also has the skill and athleticism to overtake Christian Kirk as the WR1 in Jacksonville.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City - 1st round): Smaller receiver that ran a 4.21 forty and will have Mahomes throwing him the ball, the Tyreek comps write themselves. That’s a big shadow he’ll have to get out from under, but if he can block out the noise, he can make a big impact. Also, with Rashee Rice’s legal troubles, there’s a good chance it ends up being him and Marquise Brown on the outside for the first half of the season.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo - 2nd round): I definitely would’ve preferred to see the Bills go with someone else, but Coleman was the pick and he’s in line for a ton of targets. Consistency is the name of the game though, something he struggled with at Florida State.
Ladd McConkey (LA Chargers - 2nd round): He has incredible short-area quickness that will help him separate against DBs. The Chargers’ current starting Receivers are an over-hyped Josh Palmer and a staring down the barrel of bust territory Quentin Johnston. I said what I said. I’ll be surprised if McConkey doesn’t pass at least one of them for a starting spot before the seasons kicks off.
Will need either an injury or trade to make an impact this year, but should still have a decent season and the future is bright
Rome Odunze (Chicago - 1st round): Odunze’s new OC is the same guy that just called the shots in Seattle leading to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s disappointing 600 yard/4 touchdown rookie season, where he worked as the WR3. With D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen on the roster, that’s the role Odunze is likely heading for in year one. However, Allen only has a year left on his deal, so next year is an open door.
Ricky Pearsall (San Francisco - 1st round): San Fran will be an interesting watch this summer. Will they trade Aiyuk or Samuel? Will they utilize a heavier three-wide set approach now that they have someone of Pearsall’s caliber in the mix? If they don’t do the former before the trade deadline I would expect something to happen before next year’s draft, increasing Pearsall’s 2025 outlook. And if they don’t do the latter, Samuel is an injury risk, which could open the door for Pearsall early on as well.
Adonai Mitchell (Indianapolis - 2nd round): Michael Pittman is the WR1 possession Receiver, Josh Downs works out the slot and Alec Pierce plays the role of downfield burner. That’s what the Colts starting three looked like before the draft. The expectation would be for Mitchell to take over Pierce’s role as the downfield burner, but what exactly would that result in for Mitchell? Pierce had 63 targets last year and only one 5+ target game in Richardson’s short stint pre-injury and that was in a game that featured Minshew because Richardson got hurt early on. Trust does account for that as well, so maybe he can get that rapport built fast.
Malachi Corley (NY Jets - 3rd round): With Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the outside, Corley can slide into the Slot where he lined up for 91.6% of his snaps at Western Kentucky (per PFF). But what can we expect for target total behind Wilson and Williams? I would say he should be above the Tight Ends for targets, while having to deal with losing targets to Breece Hall and maybe Israel Abanikanda. We don’t yet know what this offense is going to fully look like with Aaron Rodgers running it, but we can get an idea based on Hackett’s time with Rodgers in Green Bay.
Could make a difference immediately, but the QB play/offensive situation could also get in the way
Malik Nabers (NY Giants - 1st round): There is no denying the talent. The problem is Daniel Jones. In the four seasons that Jones has led the Giants in pass attempts the highest receiving yards total by a Receiver was 816, and the highest touchdown total was 8. That would be a decent rookie season, but not starter worthy…and as of right now, that’s the ceiling. Hopefully the Giants were serious about trying to get a QB this draft, and hopefully that carries over to next year.
Xavier Legette (Carolina - 1st round): A trade up into the first for him should have him locked into starting work as long as he doesn’t bomb in training camp. That said, we will need to see Bryce Young take a massive step forward before his Receivers can be reliable starters in fantasy. If you think Young takes that step this season than Legette moves up your board, otherwise he should be in that 9-12 range for the Receiver rankings, and probably a mid-second round pick depending on how highly the QBs and RBs get valued in your league.
Ja’Lynn Polk (New England - 2nd round): Three major questions for him: Can Drake Maye make an immediate impact, or is his situation too similar to what Young dealt with in Carolina last year? Can the O-Line protect Maye long enough for him to get the ball out of his hands? And if Polk gets the WR1 treatment from opposing defenses, can he handle it?
Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh - 3rd round): Wilson will be given the chance to take over the Diontae Johnson role, which isn’t a bad spot to be in. But this will be a new look offense, featuring a new run-happy Offensive Coordinator, and a falling off Russell Wilson.
Sleeper potential, either because of where they landed, or because they went much later than they should have
Troy Franklin (Denver - 4th round): A mix of both for Franklin. He landed with a Receiver needy Broncos team and he gets paired with his college QB! He also should’ve been gone in the second round. I could see a monster rookie season around the corner. I could also see rookie QB struggles for Nix, and a third on the depth chart positioning hindering Franklin's rookie value. But that’s why it’s sleeper potential.
Devontez Walker (Baltimore - 4th round): Zay Flowers is Baltimore’s WR1, no question. However, Walker has the skill and athleticism to beat out the oft injured and under-performing Rashod Bateman for the WR2 role in this offense (although it would be the third pass catching role, since Mark Andrews is still a thing). Lamar Jackson had his highest passing yard and pass attempt totals last season, and his second best QBR. I’d say the Todd Monken move proved to be the right one, and the third pass catching option in this offense can be far more lucrative than it would have been two years ago.
Brenden Rice (LA Chargers - 7th round): Rice definitely has some parts to his game that will need to be improved if he’s going to become a legitimate threat at the pro level, that’s likely why he slid, though the 7th round was a bit excessive. However, he was a touchdown machine in his final year at USC, scoring one touchdown to every 5.8 targets he saw. He could start out his career playing a redzone role while he works on the rest of his game, or he could get tossed into the starting lineup cause the Chargers lack Receiving talent.
Might be worth a bench stash, or a late season add before the offseason starts
Jermaine Burton (Cincinnati - 3rd round): Not a forgone conclusion that Burton will be the third Receiver to work into Cincy's lineup, but at least he could compete for the role. My money is on the Bengals predominantly using Irwin or Jones in that more traditional Slot role. That leaves Burton to compete with Iosivas for the WR2 spot should Higgins be gone from Cincinnati this season or next offseason.
Jalen McMillan (Tampa Bay - 3rd round): He’ll more than likely play behind Chris Godwin this year, but the door to the starting spot could open up next year.
Luke McCaffrey (Washington - 3rd round): We don’t know how many Receivers Daniels or the Washington offense are going to be able to support yet, so no way to say McCaffrey is a late-round must target. But, if Dotson continues to struggle, he could see his stock rise quickly.
Jacob Cowing (San Francisco - 4th round): A Slot Receiver, and as I mentioned with Pearsall above, trades/injuries could play a role in what kind of production he sees this season and in the seasons to come.
Javon Baker (New England - 4th round): A well-liked day 3 sleeper amongst the draft pundits. With New England’s lack of high-end talent at Receiver he could work his way into a starting role for them this season. Drops are a concern though, so he could also practice himself deeper onto the bench.
Jamari Thrash (Cleveland - 5thround): Kind of an underrated playmaker for a surprise Louisville team that made a run to the ACC championship last season. He continues the trend of Cleveland spending a middle round pick on a Receiver in the hopes that one of them will blow up. The Browns did trade for Jeudy, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype so far as a pro, and Amari Cooper is entering the final year of his deal. Plus, the team doesn’t seem to be entirely sold on Elijah Moore as a starter. Depending on what the Browns do next offseason, there’s a chance we could see Thrash, Cedric Tillman or David Bell get a chance to really prove themselves in 2025, heck, maybe we see all three.
Add to your Watch Lists
Bub Means (New Orleans - 5th round): The Saints' starting two should be Olave and Shaheed, and that WR3 spot should be fair game. I like A.T. Perry and I think he has a better chance to win it than Means, but I can't guarantee that. Still, that's not the offense I would expect to carry good fantasy value for three starting Receivers, so take the wait and see approach.
Ainias Smith/Johnny Wilson (Philadelphia - 5th/6th round): DeVante Parker's retirement provided an unexpected opening for the two rookies to compete for. They will still have the veteran, Parris Campbell, to deal with, but his injury history is known. The other potential downside is that Hurts likes his big three (Brown, Smith and Goedert), and he now has Barkley as a target out of the backfield, so even if one of these guys cracks the starting lineup they'll likely be an afterthought.
Ryan Flournoy (Dallas - 6th round): A sneaky sleeper. Flournoy played at little ol' Southeast Missouri State and didn't come off the board until the 6th round. But why should we rule out someone like him taking the WR3 role away from Tolbert. It's not like Tolbert has shown anything in his first two years to make us believe he's a lock.
Casey Washington (Atlanta - 6th round) & Tejhaun Palmer (Arizona - 6th round): Grouping them together because it's basically the exact same situation. Both teams are a little shaky at Receiver beyond their WR1, both signed and/or traded for veterans at some point this offseason to try and shore up the position for the time being, and both drafted a Receiver that wasn't invited to the Combine in the 6th round. That last part doesn't actually matter toward them being in this category, just thought it was a weird coincidence. Either one could fight for a starting role this year, but it's not going to be an easy fight...Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, Zay Jones and Greg Dortch will make sure of that.
Malik Washington/Tahj Washington (Miami - 6th/7th round): A slightly better situation than what Smith and Wilson are in, in Philly. The Slot role should really be an open competition and I really like both of these guys (I like Malik a little more). Still, should one of them win the role they're in an offense that is heavily dominated by the WR1 and WR2.
Cornelius Johnson (LA Chargers - 7th round): I like Brenden Rice more than Johnson, which is why he's here and Rice is above. But the Chargers Receiver group is in dire straits, and Johnson was just drafted by his college coach. In other words, the stars could align just right.
The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future
Anthony Gould (Indianapolis - 5th round): Wasn't overly high on him and it's not a great offense to land in. He was probably drafted more for his return skills anyway.
Jha'Quan Jackson (Tennessee - 6th round): Undrafted grade, suddenly crowded Receiver room, and a bit of an unknown at QB, none of that screams watch out for this guy. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up on some teams' practice squad.
Jordan Whittington (LA Rams - 6th round): Tell me if this sounds familiar: A receiver that's a better blocker than they are a receiver, gets drafted late by the Rams. It does? That's because Whittington is the replacement for Skowronek, a Receiver who averaged 15.4 receiving yards/game in his three seasons in LA, and scored just one touchdown.
Devaughn Vele (Denver - 7th round): I'm not high on Vele. The situation is the most favorable out of the four players listed down here, but I just don't think he has the talent to be anything more than a depth player as a pro, and potentially not even that.
