Lance's 2024 Week 1 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my predictions, they will include my winner for each game with a brief explanation, and 1 start and 1 sit for each fantasy football position. I will start making my spread picks after week 5, once I have more statistical data to go on. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record Last Season: 160-95

Kansas City over Baltimore

Should be a great game, I'm giving the edge to the reigning Super Bowl champs at home as that's what my numbers also suggest. It is worth noting that Baltimore is a team that doesn't play their starters in preseason (more on that below) and they still manage to win week 1 (they've pulled off that feat in each of the last two seasons, but the Chiefs are better than both of their opponents in those years).

Green Bay over Philadelphia

For those that have read my week 1 pick articles before, you know that something I started looking into a couple seasons ago was how teams that didn't play their QB1 and at least one starting WR in preseason faired against teams that did in week 1. Usually, it's not very pretty. Philly is one of those teams that didn't start theirs, and as good as I believe they'll be this year (#1 team in the NFC) I think the additional travel to Brazil coupled with their starters kicking off the rust is going to hurt them in this one.

Atlanta over Pittsburgh

If Kirk Cousins plays, then Atlanta will be the only team in the "didn't start their starters" category going against a team that did, that I will be picking to win. Mike Tomlin is a very good coach, but there are so many issues on this team that I don't think even his magical powers can get this team to another winning record. Atlanta finally has a QB (two?) that can utilize the talent they've stockpiled on offense, the defense just needs to do enough against Russell Wilson for them to walk out with a week 1 win.

Buffalo over Arizona

I think this game ends up being closer than most might expect, but in the end the Bills offense is too much for a Cardinals defense that should be toward the bottom of the league this year.

Chicago over Tennessee

My numbers are pretty much split on these two. Personally, I think Chicago's defense has the potential to be top ten this year, so as long as the rookie QB minimizes turnovers, the Bears will get the win.

Cincinnati over New England

Give me Burrow over Brissett, especially when you add in the matchup between Hendrickson and whoever the Pats decide to role out at Left Tackle.

Houston over Indianapolis

If you don't know already, I don't think Anthony Richardson will prove to be anything more than a bust, so when my numbers suggest that the team he's facing will win, I'm not going to try and justify the opposite happening.

Jacksonville over Miami

Another started vs didn't start. I like the Jags this season, I think the AFC South is going to be a battle between them and the Texans all the way through the year. Miami's defense doesn't impress me much, though they do have some pieces to make me eat those words. I still think Trevor Lawrence and his new, big, explosive pass catcher will show right away what the Jags can do this year.

Carolina over New Orleans

Tough pick. My numbers slightly favor Carolina, and given my concerns with New Orleans' O-Line, I decided to stick with that.

Minnesota over NY Giants

This game is either going to be insanely interesting with Malik Nabers and Justin Jefferson showing they can get the job done regardless of who is under Center, or an incredibly boring defensive show (unless that's the kind of thing you're into, then incredibly fun defensive show). Give me the Brian Flores coached, Vikings defense.

Las Vegas over LA Chargers

The Chargers' O-Line figures to be better this season, but it's still going to be a hobbled Justin Herbert being chased down by Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce. Not to mention, because of that injury Herbert has dealt with, this is another started vs didn't start matchup.

Denver over Seattle

It's funny, this is the exact matchup from 2022 that caused me to look into the effect not playing your starters in preseason had on a team's week 1 performance. That was the year Russell Wilson joined Denver, and the game that started Geno Smith's delayed breakout. This time around both teams played their QB1s and at least one starting WR in preseason, but Denver still gets a chance to return the favor with a rookie QB that has plenty of doubters out there.

Dallas over Cleveland

My numbers give the edge to Dallas, and for me the tiebreaker is Dak Prescott. Both defenses are toward the top of the league, both teams have their playmakers, and I think Cleveland's Line is slightly better, but it's not without its issues. The biggest difference is Prescott vs Deshaun Watson, and I'm going to take Prescott in that matchup until Watson shows he can be the player he was back in Houston.

Washington over Tampa Bay

Jayden Daniels will be the key. He gets the chance to show off all of his talent against a Tampa defense that's getting way more credit than they should be in my opinion.

Detroit over LA Rams

The Rams will be breaking in some new faces at key positions on the defensive side of the ball and Detroit's offense will be ready to take advantage of that. Granted the Lions will likely have one, maybe two rookies playing major time at Corner, but that's where Aidan Hutchinson comes in. I like what Detroit has to offer all-around, and I don't believe McVay's coaching prowess will help LA escape with the win.

San Francisco over NY Jets

Rodgers, fresh off his Achilles injury, has to take on one of the best defenses in the league. And, with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk now under contract, I feel pretty good about taking the Niners, though they're likely to go run heavy against this Jets secondary.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Record for QBs, TEs, and Ds is based off if they finished top 12 or not

Record for RBs and WRs is based off if they finished top 24 or not.

QB Record: 0-0

QB Start: Jayden Daniels at Tampa Bay

The Bucs allowed the fourth most passing yards last year and they'll now be without their second best edge rusher from last year (Shaq Barrett, and to be fair, that's not saying a whole lot), and their second best cover corner (Carlton Davis). Unless they have some magic trick stuck up their sleeve, Daniels should be in a good position to throw at will, and when you add in his rushing prowess you can see the value he has to offer in fantasy land for week 1.

QB Sit: Dak Prescott at Cleveland

I know it seems contradictory to what I said above, but there's a difference between being the factor that gets the win and being a fantasy star for the week. Cleveland's defense is too good to rely on Prescott as your QB1 for week 1.

RB Record: 0-0

RB Start: Javonte Williams at Seattle

Williams has reportedly looked the part again this preseason. I expect some major defensive changes to happen for Seattle under Mike Macdonald, but I don't expect all those changes to click week 1, which means Denver could still take advantage of a defense that tied for 5th in YPA allowed, and tied for 2nd in rushing touchdowns allowed.

RB Sit: Tony Pollard at Chicago

Lots of things to unpack here. One, is the offense around him. We don't know if Will Levis will take a step up this year or not and if he doesn't then stacked boxes are coming, plus that Line wasn't all that bad last year, but how much of that was Derrick Henry doing what he does? Two, is Tyjae Spears. This backfield isn't going to be dominated by one guy. And that brings us to three, Chicago's defense. It already looks and sounds even better than what it was last year, and last year they allowed the 2nd least rushing touchdowns, and tied for 4th in YPA allowed. So if Chicago is stingy against the run again then there's no hope for volume to save Pollard with Spears in tow.

WR Record: 0-0

WR Start: Khalil Shakir vs Arizona

Arizona's pass coverage was awful last year, and with not a whole lot added to the secondary this offseason I doubt it will be any better. That's why I think one of the Buffalo Receivers will excel this week, the trick is going to be figuring out which. I would go the safer route and take the guy that's been in the offense for a few seasons now and showed that rapport with Josh Allen toward the end of the 2023 season.

WR Sit: Brandon Aiyuk vs NY Jets

Like I said above, given the Jets' secondary, I would expect San Fran to go run heavy, that's going to hurt Aiyuk's value some. As will the fact that he sat out preseason and will now have to go against Sauce Gardner.

TE Record: 0-0

TE Start: Mike Gesicki vs New England

How about a deep sleeper. The Pats were pretty solid against Tight Ends last year, but Cincy isn't your typical opponent. Chase and even Higgins are going to demand some over the top help which would in turn allow Gesicki to matchup with a Linebacker. Plus, Cincy hasn't really utilized the Tight End position recently so it's not like the Pats will have a whole lot to go on. And bonus, it's a bit of a revenge game for Gesicki.

TE Sit: Dalton Schultz at Indianapolis

More of a warning. The Texans added Stefon Diggs to a Receiver room that already featured Tank Dell and Nico Collins. I wouldn't rely on Schultz until you get a chance to see how he figures into Houston's pass catching hierarchy, which without much to go on looks like he'll be the fourth option.

Defense Record: 0-0

Defense Start: Cincinnati Bengals vs New England

Cincy's pass rushers versus this makeshift O-Line the Patriots are rolling with and a minimally mobile QB. I see plenty of sack and interception opportunities for the Bengals defense.

Defense Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta

Pittsburgh's defense has the name, and a lot of the sites out there may list them high because of that, and also their opponent. But like I said above, this isn't likely to be the same rudderless offense we've seen recently. The key will be a healthy Kirk Cousins, but the playmakers are there and the O-Line is one of the best in the business.