Lance's 2024 Week 10 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 87-51
ATS Update: My new system for ATS picks started strong during the testing phase, but tapered off each week. That means I will not be starting my ATS picks anytime soon, if at all this season.
Note on my Numbers: In case you missed it last week, there are 5 categories that I get percentages from when I reference my numbers. I use all five to determine a team's overall chance of winning. In the two weeks leading up to last week, teams that swept all five categories for their matchup were 15-5, and three of those five losses were teams that had a recent major injury to their offensive skill positions. And that lead me to believe the stats have hit the point where they're actually a reflection of a team's ability. So, last week I took all 8 of the teams that had that going for them, and 7 of those 8 won. There are 9 games this week that you will see "(Team Name) has all 5" at the beginning, I'm taking 8 of them to win.
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Baltimore has all 5, making it a lot easier to make my pick for this matchup this time around. Side note, if you have a Burrow, Chase, Iosivas (or Higgins if he's healthy), Gesicki, Jackson, Henry, Flowers, Diontae Johnson, Andrews/Likely, and maybe even Bateman, start them, unless you have too many star players already going this week and just can't find a way to work them in.
Carolina over NY Giants
The numbers swing in the Giants' favor just slightly, but I like Carolina somehow making it two in a row.
Chicago over New England
Chicago has all 5. After how last week went, I don't blame you for doubting this one, but Chicago really has been a completely different team at home.
Buffalo over Indianapolis
Indianapolis has all 5. I can't bring myself to pick Indy over Buffalo even if Indy has all 5. Besides, one team that had all 5 has lost in each of the last two weeks.
Minnesota over Jacksonville
Close to even by my numbers, but the Vikings have a slight edge. The Jags have played better, but good enough to upset Minnesota? Personally, I don't think so. And with the additional news that Lawrence might not be able to go this week, I feel even better about picking Minnesota.
Kansas City over Denver
Kansas City has all 5. As tempting as it was to go against Kansas City again (they have to lose at some point, they really aren't good enough to go undefeated barring league intervention), I decided to stick with the numbers and not cost myself another check in the win column.
Atlanta over New Orleans
Pretty close to an even split in four of the five categories (Atlanta blows them out of the water in the 5th one). However, this is a Saints team that just lost to Carolina, just fired their Head Coach, and just traded off one of their best players, all signs of how the rest of the season should go.
Tampa Bay over San Francisco
Tampa Bay has all 5. I'm not all that surprised, the Niners just haven't looked very good. They've randomly shown up in big ways, and maybe that will be the case this week, but I'm not gonna bet on it.
Washington over Pittsburgh
Washington has all 5. Pitt's first big opportunity to prove me wrong about how overrated I think they are. Washington at home with all five categories made it an easy pick for me.
LA Chargers over Tennessee
LA Chargers have all 5. LAC's offense is still hit and miss, but that defense has been playing very good football, and against the Titans I think this will be a pretty easy win.
Arizona over NY Jets
Arizona has all 5. Three in a row for the Cardinals with a sound beating at home against a Bears team that's looked a lot better than the Jets this season. Plus, two of the Jets' three wins have come on Thursday night, and their most impressive loss was to the Bills on Monday night. I.e. they play better in primetime, which this game is not.
Philadelphia over Dallas
Probably would've been Philly even if Prescott wasn't out, but it definitely makes the decision easier. The Eagles just can't get caught playing like they're guaranteed a win.
Detroit over Houston
Houston was higher in three of the five categories, but so were the Packers last week and Detroit manhandled them. I think Houston might make it a little more interesting, but Detroit still comes out on top.
LA Rams over Miami
LA Rams have all 5. They've also played so much better since Kupp and Nacua returned, even last week when Nacua got ejected early, the Rams still played great. Don't get me wrong, Miami has played way better since Tagovailoa returned as well, which is why Monday night should be another great game, but I'm sticking with my numbers.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This likely won't be back until next season.