Lance's 2024 Week 11 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 96-56
ATS Update: My new system for ATS picks started strong during the testing phase, but tapered off each week. That means I will not be starting my ATS picks anytime soon, if at all this season.
Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued run looking at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles. Last week did not go well for this (4-5), but last week was weird as a whole, so I'm chocking it up to that and continuing on with this. The record for this since week 7 is now 26-11.
Philadelphia over Washington
Philadelphia has all 5 categories. Should be a great Thursday night game. My numbers are in favor of Philly, and with how they've played after their bye I don't disagree.
Green Bay over Chicago
At home, big rival, maybe Chicago pulls it off, but I'm not banking on it given their recent showings.
Detroit over Jacksonville
Detroit has all 5 categories. Detroit is a force to be reckoned with. Even in a road game against an AFC contender with their Quarterback throwing five interceptions, they still found a way to win last week. Not a time to think you can outsmart everyone else.
Miami over Las Vegas
Miami has all 5 categories. Seems like a no brainer to me. The only way it falls apart for Miami is if they overlook Vegas, but they have too many losses to be overlooking anyone.
LA Rams over New England
Slight edge to the Rams with my numbers, but this game does make me nervous, because the Pats have looked better in recent weeks. Still, the Rams are pretty much at full strength, so I'll go with my numbers.
Cleveland over New Orleans
New Orleans has all 5 categories. However, I know the track record of interim head coaches after that first game when they take over, and it's not pretty, so I'm taking Winston in a makeshift revenge game.
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Relatively even when it comes to my numbers. The Ravens do have the edge in two of the current bigger categories, so that's the route I'm going. However, I will eat the crow that is due me. Pittsburgh beat an actually good team last week on the road, and while being down late. Tomlin continues to amaze with the way he gets the most out of his players. If he isn't a first ballot hall of famer then the voters need to be replaced.
Minnesota over Tennessee
This should be a defensive brawl, and I'm giving the edge to Minnesota because my numbers do. However, with the way Darnold played last week, this could easily turn into an upset if we see more of that.
NY Jets over Indianapolis
The Jets have all 5 categories. One of the "has all 5" that I feel least confident about, but am sticking with it. The Jets have looked horrible all season really, but especially bad since Saleh was fired. On the flip side though, I haven't been impressed enough by Indy to think they're a team I can trust enough to pick against a team that has all 5.
Atlanta over Denver
A toss-up. I love the way Nix is playing, and Denver's defense occasionally plays like a top 5 unit, so if that's what shows up this week then I'll be wrong. I'm just going with my initial gut reaction.
San Francisco over Seattle
San Francisco has all 5 categories. But which Niners team do we get this week? Cause they definitely have that Jekyll and Hyde thing down. They have all 5 categories though, so I'll trust it.
Buffalo over Kansas City
I said it last week, eventually KC is going to lose, they aren't good enough to go undefeated. Last week was almost that game, with the way Buffalo is playing, I believe this will be the week.
LA Chargers over Cincinnati
The Chargers have all 5 categories. My head says pick Cincinnati, but then I see the insane 180 the Chargers defense has done and I just feel like picking against them in this situation would be dumb.
Houston over Dallas
Does there really need to be a discussion on this one? Be smart, take Houston.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This likely won't be back until next season.