Lance's 2024 Week 13 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 114-65
ATS Update: No ATS Picks this season.
Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles. This went 3-2 by itself last week, making this 34-15 since week 7. I also took some time Tuesday to try and determine if there was a correlation between the teams that had all five and still lost, and I found a decently strong one with the Spread (using the spread provided by CBS in their "Pick'em Challenge"). Teams that had all five and were either favored by 2.5 points or were underdogs, accounted for almost half the losses (7 losses to just 5 wins) and had a win rate of 41.67. Compare that to teams favored by 3.5 or more points (5 losses to 24 wins, win rate of 82.76) and you can see the strength in correlation. So, I will be taking all of that into account as well when I make my picks. I realize that just because they fall into one of those scenarios doesn't mean they are a lock to win or lose (hence the 82.76 and 41.67 percentages not being 100 or 0). However, I will play the odds unless I feel strongly about the team on the opposite side.
UPDATE: With Thanksgiving tomorrow, and the fact that I still had work today and have prep work to do for the meal tomorrow, below is going to be barebones. Strictly who I'm taking and if it's because of my numbers, if they had all 5 categories, or if I'm going against my numbers, and if they had all 5 I will also mention what their Spread was from CBS.
Detroit over Chicago
Detroit has all 5 categories, and is favored by 10.5.
NY Giants over Dallas
Numbers slightly favor the Giants.
Green Bay over Miami
Green Bay has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5.
Kansas City over Las Vegas
Kansas City has all 5 categories, and is favored by 12.5.
LA Chargers over Atlanta
Atlanta has all 5 categories, but they are the underdog (by 1.5), so I'm going LAC.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Cincinnati has all 5 categories, but they're favored by 2.5, so I'm going Pitt.
Houston over Jacksonville
Numbers mostly favor Houston.
Minnesota over Arizona
Minnesota has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5.
Indianapolis over New England
Numbers mostly favor Indy.
Seattle over NY Jets
Numbers mostly favor Seattle.
Washington over Tennessee
Washington has all 5 categories, and is favored by 5.5.
Tampa Bay over Carolina
Numbers mostly favor Tampa.
LA Rams over New Orleans
New Orleans has all 5 categories, but they're underdogs (by 2.5 points), so I'm going with the Rams.
Philadelphia over Baltimore
Baltimore has all 5 categories, but they're favored by 2.5, so I'm going Philly.
Buffalo over San Francisco
Buffalo has all 5 categories, and is favored by 6.5.
Denver over Cleveland
Denver has all 5 categories, and is favored by 5.5.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This won't be back until next season.