Lance's 2024 Week 14 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 129-66

ATS Update: No ATS Picks this season.

Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 41-19 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 14-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 17-3, teams favored by 2.5 are 3-9, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 5-3, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 2-4. There are 13 games with a team that has all 5 categories this week and all are favored by at least 3.5, so I'll be taking that team in each of those games.

Detroit over Green Bay

Detroit has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5. I don't know that I've been this excited for a Thursday night game in years. I might actually stay up and watch the whole thing. Detroit's got the numbers, so I'll stick with them, but Green Bay won't go away quietly.

Miami over NY Jets

Miami has all 5 categories, and is favored by 6.5. Feels like a no-brainer to me. I just wish Jordan Travis was healthy so we could see what he could do for the Jets before they inevitably go out and find a new QB in the offseason.

Minnesota over Atlanta

Minnesota has all 5 categories, and is favored by 4.5. Cousins elected to take Atlanta's offer and leave, so the revenge game factor shouldn't be as big of a deal. Which means I feel like taking Minnesota is a good move, especially considering how each of these teams have played of late. I know not every Vikings fan would agree, but as a Vikings fan myself I hope Cousins gets a warm welcome in his return. I wish we could've put a better defense on the field with him in 2021 and 2022.

New Orleans over NY Giants

Numbers favor the Saints. This is a tough one. The numbers might be in New Orleans' favor, but the interim coaching aspect suggests they're due for a dreadful end to their season. But, on the flip side, I'd have to take the Giants, so I'll stick with my numbers.

Philadelphia over Carolina

Philadelphia has all 5 categories, and is favored by 12.5. I think Carolina keeps it closer than 12.5 points, but Philly is playing fantastic football right now, so I feel good taking them to win. Side note, I'm really looking forward to seeing what Young does against this surging Philly defense. This will be his first real test since that Denver game back in week 8.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland

Pittsburgh has all 5 categories, and is favored by 6.5. With Winston under Center I won't rule anything out for Cleveland, but Pitt has done a better job of keeping the ball in their own hands, and they'll be looking for a little revenge.

Tampa Bay over Las Vegas

Tampa Bay has all 5 categories, and is favored by 6.5. These teams are on completely different tracks, and I don't see a reason to bet against the odds.

Tennessee over Jacksonville

Tennessee has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5. Even if Lawrence was playing I'd still feel pretty good about going with the Titans. Maybe a loss here finally results in the Jags moving on from Pederson.

Arizona over Seattle

Arizona has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5. If Seattle gets off to a start similar to last week they're not going to have the same opportunities the Jets gave them to make a massive comeback. I like the chances of this one panning out.

Buffalo over LA Rams

My numbers are actually split, which I found very interesting. I can't go against the Bills with the way they've been playing though.

San Francisco over Chicago

San Francisco has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5. Chicago's road woes have been well documented, and now they're rolling out an interim coach, which given the historical data there, this game could go either way, but it's a signal to how the rest of the season should finish up. Guerendo is about to welcome himself to the league, and lead the Niners to a win they desperately need right now.

Kansas City over LA Chargers

Kansas City has all 5 categories, and is favored by 3.5. With how the LAC defense played against actually good offenses (Cincy and Baltimore), this isn't a shock. They did bounce back against Atlanta, but the Falcons have been shaky as of late, so I wouldn't count them in the same sphere as Cincy and Baltimore. However, K.C.'s offense has been far from prolific, so I won't be surprised if this one back fires on me.

Cincinnati over Dallas

Numbers favor Cincy. I mentioned the 2021 Vikings' season earlier, this Cincy season kind of has that same feel, but their defense might actually be worse. Still, they should be able to take advantage of teams like Dallas.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This won't be back until next season.