Lance's 2024 Week 16 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 151-73

ATS Update: No ATS Picks this season.

Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 55-24 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 15-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 28-5, teams favored by 2.5 are 4-7, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 5-4, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 3-5.

Denver over LA Chargers

Denver has the edge by my numbers. The Chargers defense has had its problems with good offenses, I guess how you view Nix and company will determine your feelings on that. However, the heater the Denver defense is on makes siding with my numbers a safer bet in my opinion.

Houston over Kansas City

Kansas City has all 5 categories, but they're the underdogs (+2.5), so I'm going with Houston. I wouldn't count out K.C. even if Mahomes isn't playing. Their defense has been their best asset this season, and Reid is 2-2 in games without Mahomes since 2018. However, I will stick with my numbers.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Baltimore has all 5 categories, and is favored by 5.5. I'm looking forward to this rematch, and I feel comfortable sticking with my numbers with Baltimore at home.

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Cincy has all 5 categories, and is favored by 7.5. I'm not sure Cincinnati will blow them out, their defense is abysmal, but Burrow and Chase should get the job done.

Atlanta over NY Giants

Atlanta has all 5 categories, and is favored by 9.5. I don't believe any team intentionally tanks, I mean as a player you'd be putting yourself in a position to lose your job, but it is hard to argue with some of the recent Giants' video evidence. Atlanta has looked bad lately. I still don't have a problem taking them here, even with a rookie QB starting.

Carolina over Arizona

Carolina has the edge by my numbers and that surprised me, at first. If we get the Carolina team we saw last week, then I will lose this one. However, if Canales can get them back to the week 12 to 14 stretch we saw, then this could get very interesting. Plus, Arizona has their own recent struggles, so don't look at my pick here and rule it out immediately.

Detroit over Chicago

The Bears play better at home, and it's an outdoor stadium in the middle of December, plus the Lions are coming off that heartbreaker to Buffalo and they play San Fran next week. Honestly, this game has shocking upset written all over it. But I trust Campbell and his staff to have their players ready for the game in front of them, so I'll stick with Detroit and my numbers.

Indianapolis over Tennessee

Indy has all 5 categories, and is favored by 4.5. Tennessee has been feisty lately though, so I don't feel great about it, but I'll go with the favorable numbers.

LA Rams over NY Jets

McVay is making the most out of what he has, and like Tomlin, you just can't rule him out this time of year. My numbers favor the Rams and I agree.

Philadelphia over Washington

Washington has all 5 categories, but they're the underdogs (+3.5), so I'm going with Philly. Philly's defense seems to get better every week, which has me worried about my Super Bowl pick, but also has me feeling good about taking them here.

Minnesota over Seattle

My numbers are on Minnesota's side. In past years you would look at the @Seattle portion of the ticket and say, "the Seahawks got this." But this is the present and Seattle is 3-5 at home, so I'm happy to stick with my numbers.

Buffalo over New England

Buffalo has all 5 categories, and is favored by 14.5. The Bills are red-hot, I don't see a way in which the Pats slow that down.

Jacksonville over Las Vegas

The Jags have the edge by my numbers. Neither team is particularly good, should be a defensive battle. I'm calling it a toss-up and sticking with my numbers.

San Francisco over Miami

The Niners have the edge by my numbers. Both teams are fighting to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive, both have banged up starting lineups, and both have severely under-performed this year. You go ahead and pick your poison here, I'm going to go with my numbers and hope for the best.

Tampa Bay over Dallas

My numbers heavily favor Tampa, no real surprise there. Dallas' outing last week was admirable, but I wouldn't expect they same outcome this week.

Green Bay over New Orleans

Green Bay has all 5 categories, and is favored by 13.5. Green Bay would've dominated this matchup regardless, add in the loss of Carr and it only improves those odds.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This won't be back until next season.