Lance's 2024 Week 17 Predictions
Every week I put out my game predictions. Below is what I have for week 17.
Head-to-Head record: 161-79
ATS Update: No ATS Picks this season.
Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 63-24 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 19-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 30-5, teams favored by 2.5 are 4-7, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 5-4, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 5-5.
**Short turnaround thanks to the games tomorrow, and all the stuff I need to get done today, plus tomorrow being Christmas, I'm putting out a barebones write-up. I haven't gone worse than 10-6 since week 5 (only 14 games that week and I went 8-6, week 3 was the last time I did when all 32 teams played [9-7]), so hopefully what I have below will be enough for you.
***I was in such a hurry to get it done before our Christmas Eve evening started that I input some of the numbers wrong. Luckily I caught it and fixed everything. There were several changes to games, so the updated predictions are below. It also adjusted my Moneyline Parlay.
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Numbers are heavily in favor of K.C., surprising in my opinion, I figured the projection would at least be close.
Houston over Baltimore
Numbers are actually in Houston's favor. I don't feel good about it, but Baltimore's pass defense has been bad enough this year that I could see Nico Collins burning them up and down the field.
Seattle over Chicago
Seattle has the edge in my numbers.
New England over LA Chargers
New England actually has the edge by my numbers.
Cincinnati over Denver
Cincinnati has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-3.5).
Arizona over LA Rams
The Rams have all 5 categories, and they're favored (-6.5).
Indianapolis over NY Giants
Numbers favor Indy.
Buffalo over NY Jets
Buffalo has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-9.5).
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Jacksonville has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-1.5).
New Orleans over Las Vegas
New Orleans has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-1.5).
Tampa Bay over Carolina
Tampa Bay has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-7.5).
Philadelphia over Dallas
Philadelphia has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-9.5).
Miami over Cleveland
Numbers favor Miami. However, I will add that with this one I was considering Cleveland because it's a winter game in a cold weather state, and Miami and Tagovailoa historically lose in cold weather, but as of right now it's supposed to be in the 50s in Cleveland on Sunday. If the weather changes and the temp is supposed to be below 40, my pick will switch to Cleveland.
Minnesota over Green Bay
Minnesota has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-1.5).
Washington over Atlanta
Atlanta has all 5 categories, but they're also the underdogs (+4.5). The underdog tally for this situation is now at 50/50, however, it sits at 50/50 now because of the Chiefs last week got a +2.5 by CBS before it was announced that Mahomes would play (KC had all 5 categories and was +2.5), and because the Eagles wound up losing last week after Hurts went out with an injury (Washington had all 5 categories and was +3.5). For that reason, I'm sticking with the favored team here.
Detroit over San Francisco
Numbers are pretty heavily in Detroit's favor.
MONEYLINE: New section I'm starting this week, cause I'm probably not bringing back my ATS picks. Instead, in this section I'll give you a 4 to 8 team parlay that I would feel pretty good about betting on, and I'll use the Moneylines from FanDuel for reference:
Cincinnati -172, LA Rams -290, Buffalo -500, Tampa Bay -460, and Minnesota -108.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This won't be back until next season.
