Lance's 2024 Week 18 Predictions

Every week I put out my game predictions. Below is what I have for week 17.

Head-to-Head record: 173-83

ML Parlay: 1-0

ATS Update: No ATS Picks this season.

Note on my Numbers: This note is a continued look at the record for the teams that take all five categories in their matchup. If that doesn't sound familiar to you go check my week 9 or 10 articles, and my week 13 article. This is now 70-26 since week 7. And when looking at teams that have all five categories alongside their Spread, teams that are favored by 7.5 or more are now 22-2, teams favored by 3.5 to 6.5 are now 32-5, teams favored by 2.5 are 4-7, teams that fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range are 7-5, and teams that are underdogs by 2.5 or more are 5-6.

**Making week 18 predictions is simultaneously fun and it sucks. You have to account for who could sit their starters, try and predict what teams are only going to give 50% because they want that top 5 pick, etc... I did my best below. Because of the possibility that some teams with all 5 categories could sit their starters, I won't add this week to the above "all 5 category" records, so you won't see those records change for my wildcard predictions.**

Baltimore over Cleveland

Baltimore has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-17.5). At first I thought 17.5 points is absurdly high, but the Ravens have really been firing on all cylinders recently, and the Browns are either starting DTR again or Bailey Zappe, so 17.5 seems reasonable.

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has all 5 categories, but they're underdogs (+1.5). Since they actually fall in the -1.5 to 1.5 range, my numbers still slightly favor them. I just can't shake the feeling that Cincy's offense is going to blow-up on them again. Pitt's offense hasn't played well as of late, so if Cincy does blow-up, I don't think they'll be able to keep up this time.

Atlanta over Carolina

Atlanta has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-8.5). The division is still on the line. Atlanta will need a surprise upset by the Saints, but the only thing they can control is winning and my numbers suggest they will.

Washington over Dallas

By my numbers Washington has the edge, and they're playing to maintain the 6 seed. Plus, Dallas just got blown out by Philly's backup and 3rd string Quarterbacks.

Green Bay over Chicago

Green Bay has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-9.5). Like I mentioned with Washington, Green Bay is fighting to not have to play at Philly in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, they have to maintain their dominance over their hated rival, especially at home.

Indianapolis over Jacksonville

Indy has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-4.5). That embarrassment the Colts suffered last week should only stoke the fire of wanting to win this one even with nothing left to play for.

New England over Buffalo

Word is Buffalo will play their starters briefly before they all hit the bench. New England has the #1 pick right now, but they also have a young QB and it would behoove them to get his confidence up as the season comes to a close, so I like the odds of the Pats giving everything they got.

NY Giants over Philadelphia

Philadelphia has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-3.5). But the Eagles are locked into the 2 seed and are reportedly sitting their starters. On the flip side of that, the Giants proved last week they aren't going to just tank for the higher pick.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Tampa Bay has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-13.5). New Orleans has fully careened off the rails. I have plenty of thoughts on their next steps, but this isn't about that. If Atlanta wins and the Bucs lose than Atlanta wins the division and Tampa is watching the playoffs from their couches. So the Bucs will give it their all.

Tennessee over Houston

Houston could sit their starters. They can't move up or down, so all they'd really be doing is risking injuries before the playoffs. However, after last week's abysmal performance and some comments made by their Head Coach, it sounds like the starters could be out on the field for at least a little bit, so they're not just backing into the playoffs. I have a hard time believing they'll be out there for the full game, so I'll go with the Titans.

Arizona over San Francisco

Arizona has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-3.5). Neither team is really playing for anything, except pride and draft pick placement, so I'm sticking with my numbers.

Denver over Kansas City

Miami is playing at the same time as Denver, and they both are playing for the final spot in the AFC playoffs. If Denver wins, the spot is theirs, if Miami wins and Denver loses, then Miami gets it. That's why both teams will have their starters in. So, with that out of the way, I'm taking Denver because KC will be resting their starters on Sunday.

LA Chargers over Las Vegas

My numbers are split. But here's how this one works. Either A) Pitt wins on Saturday, the Chargers can't move up or down and so they opt to sit their starters in which case my pick is Vegas. Or B) Cincy wins on Saturday and the Chargers play their starters to try and get the 5 seed so they can face Houston in the playoffs instead of Baltimore, in which case my pick is LAC.

Seattle over LA Rams

The Rams have all 5 categories, but they're also the underdogs (+2.5). The Rams are also expected to rest their starters even though they could still lose the 3 seed to Tampa. If that does prove to be true, then I feel good taking Seattle. However, if Sean McVay has a sudden change of heart, then the Rams would be my pick.

Miami over NY Jets

I mentioned under Denver's write-up what's on the line for Miami. That's why I feel good going with my numbers in this one which favors Miami.

Detroit over Minnesota

Detroit has all 5 categories, and they're favored (-2.5). Detroit has also had Minnesota's number lately.

MONEYLINE: Newer section. Started it last week and hit on a 5 team parlay. In this section I'll give you a 4 to 8 team parlay that I would feel pretty good about betting on, and I'll use the Moneylines from FanDuel for reference:

Baltimore -2200, Atlanta -420, Green Bay -460, Indianapolis -225, Tampa Bay -900 AND I'll add in two take it or leave it options, I don't feel either is a sure thing, but they'll significantly boost your payout if you add them into your parlay and they hit: New England +124 & NY Giants +118

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This won't be back until next season.