Lance's 2024 Week 4 Predictions

Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. I will start making my ATS picks after week 5, once I have more statistical data to go on. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:

Head-to-Head record: 27-21

Update: My new system for ATS picks went really well in a test run last week (11-5). Going to still hold off until week 6 just to make sure it's not a fluke, but hoping I'll be able to start that up earlier next year.

Dallas over NY Giants

One of two things is going to happen this week: Either the Giants are going to hang in there and prove that the last two weeks with Dallas is something we should be expecting all year, or Dallas is going to blow off all their pent up aggression on the Giants. Either way, I think Dallas gets the win, the key is figuring out which outcome will happen if you're betting ATS.

Atlanta over New Orleans

The numbers favor Atlanta, in Atlanta, with what appears to be a healthy version of Cousins under Center, so I'll take it.

Cincinnati over Carolina

This one is probably going to come back to bite me. The numbers favor Carolina, and it does have the makings of an Andy Dalton revenge game. I just don't see Cincy starting the year 0-4, that to me would be the most shocking part to the season so far.

Chicago over LA Rams

I like Chicago's Corners to take advantage of a beat-up Rams receiving corps. And my dynasty team is hoping that leads to a couple defensive touchdowns. I could also see this being Caleb Williams' first big game, LA's secondary is a major weak point.

Green Bay over Minnesota

Before the season started I felt like this rivalry was bound for a split decision, with each winning at home. Darnold is supposed to play, but the knee bruise will likely limit his movement, and I think that bodes well for the home team.

Houston over Jacksonville

My numbers are overwhelmingly in favor of Houston and given how the Jags have been playing, it makes a lot of sense.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh

My numbers are also overwhelmingly in favor of Indy. I could try and make sense of it, but I think I'll just trust the numbers and hope Laiatu Latu has an earth shattering performance against whichever Tackle he lines up against.

NY Jets over Denver

Bo Nix's performance really impressed me last week. He looked way more comfortable and it showed on the scoreboard and in the box score. Unfortunately, he has to try an encore against the Jets' vaunted defense.

Tampa Bay over Philadelphia

It's the numbers man. Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans bounce back in a big way against Philly's less than inspiring Corners.

Arizona over Washington

Watching that Washington game on Monday night I saw a confident Jayden Daniels pick apart the Bengals in any way he wanted. The question becomes can he continue to win barnburners cause his secondary isn't doing him any favors. This week I think Arizona gets the better of him, and Kyler Murray has a monster performance.

San Francisco over New England

With each passing week the Patriots' Offensive Line looks more and more like the turnstile I expected it to be coming in. The Niners are about to feast.

Las Vegas over Cleveland

By my numbers, Vegas has the best chance to win out of any team this week. I would not have expected that, but tis the case. I don't know who the Raiders are going to start under Center, and honestly I don't think it matters, this is going to be a slugfest. It'll come down to who can wreak more havoc defensively. Both sides have the personnel to do exactly that, so I'll go with the numbers.

Kansas City over LA Chargers

Technically the Chargers are favored to at the very least cover ATS by my numbers. However, they're either starting a hobbled Justin Herbert against a drooling Chris Jones thinking about all the sacks he's about to get, or Taylor Heinicke. This game really shouldn't be close.

Baltimore over Buffalo

Buffalo looks like a freak of nature, and Baltimore played their best football of the season last week, this is going to be a very fun Sunday night game. Give me the home team in a Field Goal difference brawl.

Miami over Tennessee

The initial thought here might be "well what kind of QB play are we gonna see from Miami?" But Tennessee's QB play has been awful to start the year, so let's look at other factors. Such as, Tennessee's run defense is a liability that Miami can take advantage of and Tennessee's turnover ratio is atrocious. Run the ball, control the clock, force turnovers, that's how Miami gets the win.

Detroit over Seattle

Seattle's record looks great, their stats look even better (especially on defense), but they also haven't really been tested yet. This will be their first big test, and I think Detroit's run through them approach will take care of business.

Fantasy Starts and Sits

Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. Could be a while, but I do plan to bring this back at some point.