Lance's 2024 Week 5 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. I will start making my ATS picks after week 5, once I have more statistical data to go on. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 39-25
Update: My new system for ATS picks went 9-7 last week, bringing it to 20-12 through two weeks. Still, the 9-7 is very disappointing, so if this week doesn't go well, then I'll be going back to the drawing board and my ATS picks will go on hold.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Split decision on the numbers, so I'm sticking with my initial feeling for the game. I think Atlanta is turning a corner, and is ready to compete for the NFC South title, but when Tampa is firing they are one of the best teams in the league, and that's the team I'm banking on seeing tonight.
Minnesota over NY Jets
I strongly dislike picking games that are being played overseas. There are so many extra factors that go into it. The numbers favor Minnesota, so I'm leaving it at that and walking away.
Chicago over Carolina
I was leaning in Carolina's favor before running the numbers. It helps that both of Chicago's wins so far have been at home, and it helps me knowing that their defense can take advantage of turnover opportunities.
Baltimore over Cincinnati
My numbers are split on this one and I am too. So, I dug a little deeper and found that Lamar Jackson is 8-2 against the Bengals, but that drops to 3-2 when Burrow is under Center for Cincy. I'll still take the slight edge in that category.
Houston over Buffalo
I want to say Buffalo gets the win since they're one of the teams I picked to go to the Super Bowl, and in order for me to really start believing that I need to see it against teams like Houston. But, the numbers so heavily favor Houston I just can't do it.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis
I'm going against my numbers with this one. I just have a gut feeling the Jags pull this one off. If they don't, then Pederson should definitely find himself without a job sooner rather than later.
New England over Miami
Tennessee shutdown Miami by targeting the run and daring them to throw it. There's no reason New England can't do the same this week.
Washington over Cleveland
Washington is on fire right now. The two defenses they absolutely torched aren't as good as Cleveland's, but Cleveland's defense isn't as good as I expected after last year (more middle of the pack, not top 5). The Commanders may not drop 40+ on them, but high 20's should be enough to get the win.
Denver over Las Vegas
Both of these teams could follow the gameplans they used to win last week and pull this one out. My numbers slightly favor Denver, so I'm going that route.
San Francisco over Arizona
San Fran may not look like the same team we saw march their way to the Super Bowl last year, but they are still playing at a high level. Arizona started out really well, but last week was a disaster. So, I feel pretty good trusting my numbers in this one.
LA Rams over Green Bay
My numbers heavily favor the Rams and I don't understand it. However, when I looked at the teams that were heavily favored last week, they all three won, so we'll go with the Rams and hope homefield advantage wins out.
Seattle over NY Giants
Seattle has taken care of business against subpar teams so far, I don't see this one being any different, and my numbers heavily favor Seattle.
Dallas over Pittsburgh
Intriguing matchup. Dallas has loads of talent but hasn't played like it. Pittsburgh has whole areas that could use a talent influx, yet they're 3-1. I think Dallas' talent level wins out this week, but I won't be surprised if Pitt's front seven wrecks Dallas' O-Line and the rest of their gameplan with it.
New Orleans over Kansas City
The numbers still favor KC, but I got a gut feeling the injuries coupled with their Offensive Tackle play is going to catch up to them this week. Saints stop their skid.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. Could be a while, but I do plan to bring this back at some point.
