Lance's 2024 Week 8 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 67-40
ATS Update: My new system for ATS picks started strong during the testing phase, but tapered off each week. That means I will not be starting my ATS picks anytime soon, if at all this season.
Minnesota over LA Rams
If you didn't catch it on our Twitter, the work week got the better of me, and I had to make a pick before I was done running my numbers and before I had even started writing this article. Numbers still mostly favored Minnesota, so I would've been wrong either way.
Baltimore over Cleveland
Surprisingly, my numbers are actually pretty even. Maybe Winston can do for Cleveland this year, what Flacco did last year, but Baltimore is a runaway train right now and I don't think this is the win the Browns are looking for. Some signs of life from the offense would be a big win in itself especially against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
Detroit over Tennessee
Tennessee's defense has been a lot better than I realized, but the Lions just finished man-handling another defense that's towards the top of the league, and the Titans don't have an offense to keep up.
Houston over Indianapolis
Houston is an actually competent offense, don't expect what worked for Indy last week against Miami to work again in this one.
Green Bay over Jacksonville
So many reasons to doubt what we saw out of the Jags last week. But let's just leave it at, the Packers are an actual good team and the Jags will need to play way better than they have for most of the season if they're going to escape with a win.
Arizona over Miami
McDaniel is talking about taking it slow with Tagovailoa as he returns from his concussion, which is definitely the right thing to do. But it also means it may be a couple more weeks before you can start picking Miami again.
NY Jets over New England
My numbers mostly favor the Pats, but the Jets win out in two of my three most favorable categories, and I just don't see myself picking the Patriots in any game for the rest of the year unless they're O-Line suddenly becomes competent.
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
My numbers are heavily in Tampa's favor, but the injuries are too much for me to side with them.
Cincinnati over Philadelphia
All about the numbers here. That and can Philly perform well against a tough opponent? They beat up on the Giants last week, but it's the Giants. The last time they played a good opponent they got rocked by the Bucs.
LA Chargers over New Orleans
Same reason I didn't pick the Saints last week or the week before that, Spencer Rattler.
Buffalo over Seattle
Looks like it's going to be a close one, but my numbers are slightly in favor of Buffalo, so I am too.
Washington over Chicago
Removing Daniels from the equation I'm still taking Washington. If you exclude the London game, which is technically a road game for all parties involved, Chicago has played two road games. They lost both, to Houston and Indy, and scored a combined 29 points. It was early in the season, so maybe they'll prove their recent performance is the one to trust, but I think Dan Quinn can get the job done from a coaching perspective against Caleb Williams.
Denver over Carolina
Denver is hot right now and Carolina's not. Dalton looked like he could help turn things around when he first took over, but the offense is floundering again, and I don't trust them.
Las Vegas over Kansas City
Numbers are split, and this is a division that seems to love their upsets (see week 16 of last season), so give me Vegas in a monster upset.
Dallas over San Francisco
Call it a hunch. My numbers favor San Francisco, they're favored on the betting lines, and given Dallas' recent play I really shouldn't lean this way. However, Dallas is 3-0 on the road (you did that math right, they're 0-3 at home), and San Fran isn't exactly playing great ball right now either.
Pittsburgh over NY Giants
I still think Pittsburgh is a fraud, and we'll find out if I'm right after their bye next week, with 7 of their final 9 games against teams currently viewed as legitimate playoff contenders. But that's for later, this week they're going against a mess of a team that's doing even worse with that massive whole at Left Tackle.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This likely won't be back until next season.
