Lance's 2024 Week 9 Predictions
Every week I’ll be putting out my game predictions. As usual, I’ll start with my picks:
Head-to-Head record: 77-46
ATS Update: My new system for ATS picks started strong during the testing phase, but tapered off each week. That means I will not be starting my ATS picks anytime soon, if at all this season.
Note on my Numbers: A little background, there are 5 categories that I get percentages from when I reference my numbers. I use all five to determine a team's overall chance of winning. But I wanted to mention that in the last two weeks teams that have swept all five categories for their matchup are 15-5, and three of those five losses were teams that had a recent major injury to their offensive skill positions. All of that leads me to believe the stats have hit the point where they're actually a reflection of a team's ability. So, for any of the games below that I put "(Team Name) has all 5" at the beginning, this is what I'm referring to.
Houston over NY Jets
I don't care if Diggs did just go down for the season, I don't understand how the Jets, who just lost to the Patriots, are favored. Give me the Texans all day.
Atlanta over Dallas
Atlanta has all 5. Not surprising either considering Dallas' downfall this season. I still won't rule Dallas out because as I pointed out last week, they've been pretty good on the road, but then again, they also let me down last week.
Baltimore over Denver
Baltimore has all 5. Prior to seeing Baltimore get the full sweep I probably would've gone upset here. Nix seems to have hit a groove, and Baltimore's pass defense is abysmal. But I will play the numbers and hope Lamar Jackson gets the job done.
Buffalo over Miami
Buffalo has all 5. Miami looked good in Tagovailoa's return and they're good enough to give the Bills a run for their money. But Buffalo has been on fire, and since my numbers heavily favor them I'm sticking with them.
New Orleans over Carolina
Carr is supposed to play Sunday, so give me the Saints with an easy win. However, if Carr doesn't play, I'll still take the Saints to win behind the legs of Kamara, but I would say that would give Carolina a much better shot at covering ATS (somewhere around 7.5). Again, that's only if Carr doesn't play though.
Cincinnati over Las Vegas
Cincinnati has all 5. I keep trusting Cincinnati and they keep letting me down. If they do it again this week I will not pick them to win another game all season.
Cleveland over LA Chargers
My numbers actually lean a little more toward LAC, but I really liked what I saw out of Winston and that offense last week. The Chargers won't be as easy to pass on as the Ravens, but I think the Browns could get on a little bit of a roll here.
Washington over NY Giants
I'm shocked Washington didn't have the clean sweep on the Giants. That won't stop me from standing with the rookie phenom though. Oh, I'm sorry Giants fans, I'm actually referring to Daniels.
Tennessee over New England
Tennessee has all 5. Even with how bad the Pats have been I'm still pretty surprised that Tennessee got the full sweep. I probably would've taken them regardless though because of that defense.
Arizona over Chicago
Arizona has all 5. Last week the Cards won a nailbiter and Chicago lost in devastating fashion. Perhaps, that leads to a let-down game by Arizona with Chicago wanting vengeance. But I'll take my numbers, and lean into the fact that Chicago hasn't looked very good on the road.
Philadelphia over Jacksonville
I don't know where that effort came from last week, but if Philly can keep that going the Jags won't stand a chance.
Detroit over Green Bay
Numbers are pretty much split, but Detroit leads in two of the three most favorable categories, so I'm taking them, and banking on their recent dominance.
Seattle over LA Rams
Seattle has all 5. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being back for the Rams could end up skewing this. But the Vikings didn't have a full sweep on the Rams last week, and Seattle does, so maybe my numbers know something I don't.
Minnesota over Indianapolis
Minnesota has all 5. If there was one team that has all 5 categories but was going to lose this week because of a big injury from last week it would be Minnesota (Christian Darrisaw). Add in Indy getting smart and starting Flacco and I really could see this swinging the other way, but I'm going to play the odds here.
Tampa Bay over Kansas City
Going against the Chiefs again is a recipe for disaster and doing it when the Bucs are as banged up as they are at WR makes it seem all the worse. So why do it? Well, mostly a feeling I have that the Chiefs' bid for a perfect season is nearing an end, a little because I love the way Mayfield and Tampa's backfield has been playing, and it's a little because Tampa won 3 of the 5 categories and all three are the most favorable of the five.
Fantasy Starts and Sits
Under Construction: This segment wasn't going well and a big part of that is it takes quite a bit of research time that I can't currently dedicate to it. I'm working on creating a program that can do the digging for me. This likely won't be back until next season.
