Lance's 2025 Hype Mock Draft v2.0

I told myself I was all done when I finished the previous one and posted it on Monday. I don't like doing second versions of these, I prefer to do different variations, rather than a repeat of a previous one. But then I found this awesome resource (NFL Mock Draft Database), which sent me spiraling down the data rabbit hole, and when I reached the end, I had a new way of assessing the chances a team selects a specific position. I still used a bunch of mock drafts to determine the presumed positions that each team will draft, but thanks to NFL Mock Draft Database, I was able to do so on an even bigger scale. I switched the trade up, trade down potential over to the rumor mill, to go along with the prospect rumors for each team. And I still peeked at my predictive data system, but it played a very minimal role this time around. I won't bore you with any deeper details, just know that with every team you'll see a Pos%, which stands for position percentage, and it'll have 2 to 4 positions listed with all of them having an "Other" which is literally every other position not listed.

1) Tennessee Titans

Pick: QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Pos%: QB (61.0), Other (22.1), Edge (16.9)

Reason: That's a pretty staggering number, but with very little doubt left that Ward is the pick it's more like 99.9999999% QB.

Previously: QB Cam Ward (Miami)

2) Cleveland Browns

Pick: CB/WR Travis Hunter (Colorado)

Pos%: Hunter (33.2), Edge (27.2), Other (25.6), QB (14)

Reason: Hunter is the only one who I will outright name in the Pos% spot and that's because his position is WR/CB, he's the only one that fits that. This remains the pick.

Previously: CB/WR Travis Hunter (Colorado)

3) New York Giants

Pick: Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State)

Pos%: QB (34.0), Other (26.2), Hunter (25.5), Edge (14.3)

Reason: This is where I started to reconsider my thoughts on where Sanders will go. I just couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger though. However, if this mock falls apart, this will be the focal point for why.

Previously: Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State)

4) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via New England)

Pick: RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Pos%: OT (52.2), Other (33.1), RB (14.8)

Reason: Major buzz today that there's a trade in place for Chicago to trade up to 4 if Hunter and Carter are gone, favoring what I wrote in my previous mock. Assuming that holds up, then the pick has to be Jeanty, Pos% doesn't really line up because most have Jeanty gone by pick 6, well before Chicago got a chance at him.

Previously: RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

5) Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: DL Mason Graham (Michigan)

Pos%: DL (44.0), CB (35.3), Other (20.7)

Reason: Every part of me still thinks this will be completely wrong and the pick will either be Campbell or Banks, but I'll ride it out with the numbers.

Previously: OL Will Campbell (LSU)

6) Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

Pos%: RB (36.8), Other (27.4), QB (20.2), WR (15.5)

Reason: The first one where we get to rule out the top position because of who is left. No Jeanty, no RB. Which tosses us into the very broad "other" category. Based on what I've read, it's likely Tackle, Mason Graham, or Corner. Graham is gone too, so I'm sticking with Membou.

Previously: OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

7) New York Jets

Pick: WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

Pos%: Other (37.4), OT (26.9), DL (20.2), TE (15.5)

Reason: First real curveball. I've assumed for a while now that the pick was Warren, and if not him than it would be Membou, Campbell or Banks. But with "Other" above both positions I was left with what other position could it be. Receiver makes the most sense, with QB being a possible second. I think the Jets try to give Fields a legitimate chance to succeed though, and they do that by giving Garrett Wilson a running mate.

Previously: TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

8) Carolina Panthers

Pick: Edge Jalon Walker (Georgia)

Pos%: Edge (45.9), Other (34.2), WR (19.9)

Reason: I still think trading down is a possibility, but it seems the rumor mill has cooled on that one. So, we go with the expected position, and the expected player.

Previously: Edge Mykel Williams (Georgia) at pick 21 after trading down with Pittsburgh

9) New Orleans Saints

Pick: OL Will Campbell (LSU)

Pos%: Other (45.4), Edge (29.1), WR (15.3), CB (10.2)

Reason: I believe the Saints could still trade back, but the only heat in the rumor mill is that they want to move back into the first round from pick 40. If that's the case than they probably have their eyes on a QB not named Shedeur Sanders. So, the way I view this "other" is they go BPA. For most people that's either Campbell or Warren.

Previously: CB Jahdae Barron (Texas) at pick 23 after trading back twice

10) *TRADE* New England Patriots (via Chicago)

Pick: OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

Pos%: OT (34.3), Hunter (25.7), Other (25.5), Edge (14.5)

Reason: OT and Edge are the usual favorites for most mocks, so I think it's interesting that Edge is at the bottom. Obviously Hunter is only a possibility if he slides to them at 4. That leaves Tackle and Other, with Tackle, specifically Banks, making the most sense.

Previously: OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

11) *TRADE* Indianapolis Colts San Francisco 49ers

Pick: TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Pos%: TE (64.6), Other (22.6), S (12.8)

Reason: If Warren makes it out of the top ten I doubt Indy will hesitate to give the Niners a call. Everyone has Dallas going Receiver, but the buzz is they want another playmaker for Prescott, so Warren would still be in play. Tight End is supposed to be a possibility for Miami at 13, and even San Francisco would be a sneaky landing spot for Warren given his talent and their need for more weapons in the pass game. Indy doesn't leave it up to chance.

Previously: TE Colston Loveland (Michigan) at pick 14

12) Dallas Cowboys

Pick: WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

Pos%: WR (40.3), RB (30.7), Other (29.0)

Reason: Receiver is the expectation, and with McMillan long gone, Golden becomes the clear favorite.

Previously: WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

13) Miami Dolphins

Pick: DL Kenneth Grant (Michigan)

Pos%: Other (39.8), S (28.6), OT (21.5), CB (10.1)

Reason: Miami is a trade down candidate, but so are several teams in the next four slots, which is why I have them staying put. "Other" for them strikes me as probably interior D-Line, or Tight End. Kenneth Grant is who my PDS likes.

Previously: DL Mason Graham (Michigan) at pick 9 after trading up with Saints

14) *TRADE* San Francisco 49ers (via Indianapolis)

Pick: Edge Mykel Williams (Georgia)

Pos%: OT (41.2), Other (35.8), CB (23.0)

Reason: Tackle is only really a possibility if the Niners trade down again, which leads me to the Other category, and a rumor I read earlier today: The Niners are very likely to address the defensive side of the ball. With Corner below Other, and this being too high for a player like Derrick Harmon (in my humble opinion), that leads me to Edge. But which one? My PDS says Williams.

Previously: CB Will Johnson (Michigan) at pick 11

15) *TRADE* Pittsburgh Steelers (via Atlanta)

Pick: QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Pos%: WR (41.4), Other (39.5), QB (19.0)

Reason: If the smoke behind some of the teams that want Sanders (i.e. Seattle, Pittsburgh, and all of the high picking teams in the second round) is true, then the further Sanders falls, the more itchy Pittsburgh's trigger finger is going to get. So, I've got them moving up, not as far as I did previously though.

Previously: QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) at pick 8 after trading up with Carolina

16) Arizona Cardinals

Pick: CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

Pos%: Edge (37.9), Other (37.2), DL (24.9)

Reason: Edge being on top surprised me, not because it's not a need, but because it's long been rumored that they want a Tackle or a Corner in the first round. Other is close enough to Edge for me to feel good dipping into that pool and Will Johnson sliding this far might be too good for the Cards to pass on in favor of a Tackle.

Previously: OL Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

17) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (via Cincinnati)

Pick: Edge Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)

Pos%: Edge (37.9), Other (37.2), DL (24.9)

Reason: Philly wants to move up, there's been no quieting to those rumors. Edge is the favored position, but Other is close enough that I gave a little consideration to Safety. Then I thought, "if they want a Safety that bad, they could stay put and get one at 32." So, Edge Rusher it is, and they seem to really like those freak athletes along the defensive front, i.e. Stewart.

Previously: Edge Jalon Walker (Georgia)

18) Seattle Seahawks

Pick: OG Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

Pos%: OG (50.4), Other (39.5), OT (9.1)

Reason: This one seems to be written in pen for most people, and with Guard getting such a heavy percentage, I can't say I disagree.

Previously: OG Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: LB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

Pos%: Other (42.0), LB (34.3), Edge (14.2), S (9.5)

Reason: This is me weighing the rumor mill into it a bit more heavily. Other would probably be an Offensive Lineman or Corner, but the buzz has been that they either want Campbell or an Edge Rusher, and my numbers favor a Campbell selection in that scenario.

Previously: LB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

20) Denver Broncos

Pick: RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Pos%: Other (32.7), RB (32.3), TE (26.0), WR (9.0)

Reason: Hampton is the favorite, and RB is close enough to Other that I feel fine sticking with my pick.

Previously: RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

21) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (via Pittsburgh)

Pick: Edge Mike Green (Marshall)

Pos%: Edge (64.5), Other (35.5)

Reason: Atlanta as a trade down candidate has grown. Edge is the clear favorite, and with Green still being available I'm sticking with him.

Previously: Edge Mike Green (Marshall)

22) Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Pos%: Other (36.9), TE (33.8), DL (19.9), WR (9.4)

Reason: The mock drafts seem to be so heavily torn on how far down Loveland will fall that, that's probably the reason why Tight End isn't above Other. If Indy is the team to land Warren, I think Loveland slides down to this point and Harbaugh brings in his former Wolverine.

Previously: WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

23) Green Bay Packers

Pick: CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)

Pos%: CB (57.1), Other (42.9)

Reason: This one surprised me, I had seen a ton of Edge Rusher love, right up until I checked out the Mock Draft Database. Corner has a significant enough edge over Other, that I will go that route, and Barron is the best available.

Previously: No Pick, had them trading back to 32 and then trading out

24) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Minnesota and Philadelphia)

Pick: Edge James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee)

Pos%: Other (44.1), Edge (40.3), DL (15.6)

Reason: Trade down. Stay put. The pick should be an Edge Rusher. I would be mildly surprised if it's not, I would be absolutely shocked if it's not a defender. My PDS has the pick as Pearce and it doesn't really seem to matter if they're at pick 17 or down here in the 20s, or who goes in front of them, it's always Pearce.

Previously: Edge James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) at pick 21 after trading back with Carolina who had traded back with Pittsburgh

25) Houston Texans

Pick: DL Walter Nolen (Ole Miss)

Pos%: Other (40.1), OT (25.7), OG (19.3), WR (14.8)

Reason: That's a large gap between Other and Tackle. And with Guard and Receiver both falling outside of Other, I had to take some time to try and determine what position it could be. D-Line struck me as the most likely. Can you imagine a Defensive Line featuring athletes like Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson and Nolen?

Previously: WR Luther Burden III (Missouri)

26) Los Angeles Rams

Pick: OL Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

Pos%: OT (47.5), Other (42.5), LB (10.0)

Reason: Another one that surprised me. I kept seeing Cornerback with the occasional Linebacker and Receiver sprinkled in. After looking over their team, Right Tackle with possible Guard potential is where I landed, which left me with Simmons or Aireontae Ersery, so I went Simmons.

Previously: CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

27) Baltimore Ravens

Pick: DL Derrick Harmon (Oregon)

Pos%: Other (47.4), OG (24.7), S (16.7), Edge (11.2)

Reason: For the amount of Edge talk I've seen I was surprised to see it so low. Other is either D-Line or Corner I would think, and Harmon has a good amount of buzz.

Previously: Edge Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)

28) Detroit Lions

Pick: Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

Pos%: Edge (57.1), Other (42.9)

Reason: If Ezeiruaku and the other 6 Edge Rushers that went above him are all gone by this pick, I would expect to see Detroit trade out. If they did stay put, I think a surprise Edge Rusher, like J.T. Tuimoloau or Landon Jackson wouldn't be out of the question, but I'd probably swing the position in favor of a Receiver like Luther Burden III or Jayden Higgins (Egbuka and St. Brown just seems like redundancy).

Previously: Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

29) Washington Commanders

Pick: RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

Pos%: Edge (54.9), Other (33.5), WR (11.6)

Reason: All of the Edge Rushers are gone, but that gap is so large that I almost penciled in Landon Jackson. I'm going to stick with the rumor mill instead on this one (see my previous mock if you aren't sure what I'm talking about).

Previously: RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

30) Buffalo Bills

Pick: WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)

Pos%: DL (47.5), Other (42.5), S (10.0)

Reason: There are four favored D-Lineman to go in the first. They're all gone. Tyleik Williams has gotten a little bit of love in that capacity, but I'd be surprised to see Buffalo reach. Corner seems like the next most likely position, but with Egbuka falling all the way down to here, I don't think they'll hesitate.

Previously: CB Shavon Revel (ECU)

31) Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: OT Josh Conerly Jr. (Oregon)

Pos%: OT (57.1), Other (42.9)

Reason: Tackle is the favorite for obvious reasons, though I was surprised that Guard didn't make it as its own separate category. Best pure Left Tackle on the board at this point is Conerly, but I guess it will probably come down to if they think Ersery can make it as a Tackle.

Previously: OG Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)

32) *TRADE* New Orleans Saints via (Philadelphia and Minnesota)

Pick: QB Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)

Pos%: NONE

Reason: New Orleans doesn't currently own a second first-round pick, so there's not any data to go on for Pos%. However, the rumor is they want to move back in from pick 40. 32 is the easiest spot to do that, and QB would be the obvious reason why. Dart would be who I would expect to see go, with Milroe as the dark horse, just like I mentioned in my previous iteration of this.

Previously: QB Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) made by New Orleans via trade with Green Bay

*The image used for the article is a screenshot from the result given by PFF's mock draft simulator. If you haven't played around with it before, you should, it's fun, and there's a lot of different scenarios you can set it up to run. https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=ed225bcf-80de-4380-b0a4-18de9cef2039