Lance's 2025 Mock Drafts

There are two different mock drafts below. The first is the table. It's my "Predictive Data Mock Draft". Essentially, I built a system that takes the draft history of the acting GM and HC of each team, and predicts how the draft will go. For teams who's GM and HC have not held the position before, I use who they were most recently with as a temporary band-aid. No trades in that one.

Below that will by my "Hype Mock Draft". I did that one last year, but in case you didn't see it, I use several things to try and predict the picks and trades, here's what I use:

-I look at what position other pundits have mocked to each team (on a large scale) so I can get an idea of what is expected for each team, and to also get an idea of who is favored to trade up or down.

-I check out draft rumors for teams and players, as well as player hype leading up to the draft.

-I have a statistical system that gives each player a percentage for getting drafted in the first round. And utilizing every first round pick from the last ten years, I have a mean and median for each position that I compare every player's percentage to.

-With that mean and median, I use each team's tendencies to get an idea of what player they are likely to go with. Some teams have head coaches and general managers that have never made a first round pick, for them I will look at where they came from to get kind of an idea, but I don't heavily weigh that into the pick.

-I also ran it alongside my predictive data system, using all of the above as an additional structure to choices.

Predictive Data Mock Draft

HYPE MOCK DRAFT

1) Tennessee Titans

Pick: QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Reason: Ward is the consensus.

2) Cleveland Browns

Pick: CB/WR Travis Hunter (Colorado)

Reason: Hunter has overtaken Carter and Sanders as the presumed pick, and I don't see a reason to disagree.

3) New York Giants

Pick: Edge Abdul Carter (Penn State)

Reason: Another majority favorite, looking like the Giants will go BPA rather than biggest need, and I believe it's the right move long-term, but will it be enough to keep Daboll and Schoen from being shown the door?

4) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via New England)

Pick: RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Reason: The buzz surrounding the Patriots is that if Hunter and Carter are off the board, they'll either look to take Will Campbell, or trade out. Outside of Vegas, the Jags and Bears are the two favorites to land Jeanty, but with the Jags and Raiders looming I'm projecting a jump up the board so Chicago can add one more monster piece around Caleb Williams.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: OL Will Campbell (LSU)

Reason: The majority believe the pick here will be Mason Graham. However, the buzz is that the Jags really like Kelvin Banks and have interest in Will Campbell. I think that makes the most sense. O-Line is a need, and Liam Coen is coming from an offense with an all-world Left Tackle, so he understands the benefit of having a great player on the blindside. Personally, I believe Campbell will have to move inside to succeed as a pro, but maybe they can prove me wrong.

6) Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

Reason: If Jeanty is gone, the thinking seems to be that they'll go Corner, but I've seen some recent buzz that even if Jeanty is here, they'll pass on him for Membou in order to shore up their Right Tackle spot. Knowing Carroll, and what he did while in Seattle, and what he dealt with, I would expect this pick to either be Membou, or Mason Graham.

7) New York Jets

Pick: TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Reason: If Fields is going to succeed he needs weapons around him. O-Line, namely Membou, and Warren are the two favorites to go here. With Membou off the board, I think Warren becomes the no-brainer.

8) *TRADE* Pittsburgh Steelers (via Carolina)

Pick: QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Reason: First, let's address the smoke. There's been some serious buzz recently that the Sanders visit to Pittsburgh went incredibly well. Given the recent belief that Sanders is sliding, it may be a ploy from his camp to try and pick the hype train back up, but I've got a feeling it's not just hype. Second, the trade. Carolina is interested in trading down, the thinking there is that they would like a team that wants Sanders to move in front of their rival and draft him. This kind of move by Pitt wouldn't be unprecedented either, they went from 20 to 10 back in 2019 to select Devin Bush. All-in-all, it makes sense to me, but I could also see Sanders sliding to the 20s.

9) *TRADE* Miami Dolphins (via New Orleans)

Pick: DL Mason Graham (Michigan)

Reason: One of Miami's biggest needs is on the interior of their D-Line, so when they see the Mason Graham slide getting closer and closer, they pick up the phone and call the Saints before someone else gets the chance.

10) *TRADE* New England Patriots (via Chicago)

Pick: OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

Reason: The Patriots trade back knowing that they'll either have one of the top Tackles, or someone like Jalon Walker or Mason Graham sitting here at 10. In this scenario, both Banks and Walker are available. My gut says Walker, my predictive data system says Banks, and with them desperately needing to protect Drake Maye, Banks wins out.

11) San Francisco 49ers

Pick: CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

Reason: The majority believe San Fran will go Corner here. My predictive data system (henceforth referred to as PDS) has Will Johnson, Jahdae Barron and Omarion Hampton all at the top for the Niners in this scenario. I know they've talked about making sure they land a RB in this draft, but I would be shocked if they meant in round 1, so it came down to Johnson and Barron for me, and I gave the edge to the player that has more buzz.

12) Dallas Cowboys

Pick: WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

Reason: It's pretty much an accepted fact that Dallas is going Receiver here. The buzz is that they have Golden above Tetairoa McMillan. Seemed like an easy call to me. I will add, the predictive data system had Jalon Walker followed by Tetairoa McMillan, as the most likely picks.

13) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami and New Orleans)

Pick: Edge Jalon Walker (Georgia)

Reason: A little too on the nose? Perhaps. The buzz around Philly is that they're going to trade up at least once, if not twice, on Thursday night. The reason to trade up twice is simple, you really like a player who is expected to be gone well ahead of where you're picking and it's actually slightly cheaper for you to move up a short distance, and then move up from that new pick, i.e. going from pick 32 to 23 to 13, then it would be to jump straight to 13. This puts them in front of the Falcons who would be the most likely team to stop the Jalon Walker slide, which is also a check in the pro column for the Saints trading down. Walker being on the nose is because of Roseman's love affair with Georgia players.

14) Indianapolis Colts

Pick: TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Reason: They put out that they won't go with a specific position just because it's their biggest need. They still want to get the best player they can. That's what every team says before they take whoever they want and say that player was the top one on their board. For that reason I'm sticking with Tight End for them.

15) Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Edge Mike Green (Marshall)

Reason: It's no secret that the Falcons need an Edge Rusher, and that's why they're almost exclusively projected to draft one. Not a whole lot of buzz about who they like the most, but Green is who my PDS suggests in this scenario.

16) Arizona Cardinals

Pick: OL Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

Reason: Rumor is Arizona wants a Right Tackle or Corner. I view Simmons as a Guard, but most still have him listed as a Tackle. My PDS suggests he's the pick, so that's the route I'm going.

17) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (via Cincinnati)

Pick: Edge Mykel Williams (Georgia)

Reason: In this scenario Carolina traded back to 21, and then turns around to move back up in order to get in front of Tampa Bay in case their division rival is eyeing one of the Edge Rushers they're really high on. According to the rumor mill that list includes Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart.

18) Seattle Seahawks

Pick: OG Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

Reason: This is pretty much the accepted pick across the board for Seattle. I think the only other pick I saw was the occasional Tyler Warren in the mocks that had him somehow falling past Indy.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: LB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

Reason: They're reportedly trying to decide between an Edge Rusher and Campbell at this pick. If it falls like this, with three Edge Rushers all going just a few picks before them, they'll have to decide if Campbell is higher on their board, or if they still like one of the remaining pass rushers (Shemar Stewart, James Pearce Jr., or Donovan Ezeiruaku) more. Campbell holds a 22% lead over Stewart according to my PDS.

20) Denver Broncos

Pick: RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Reason: My PDS has this pick as Hampton. Half of the mocks I looked at have this pick as Hampton. So, I'm going with Hampton.

21) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Pittsburgh/Carolina)

Pick: Edge James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee)

Reason: Recent comments from Cincy are that they would like to add some additional picks. Makes sense, they have a lot of needs, especially on defense, and with several top Edge Rushers, both top Safeties and Jahdae Barron all still available, the decision to drop to 21 is an easy one. My PDS suggests the pick would be Malaki Starks, but the rumor mill says Cincy really wants an Edge Rusher, and that they'll turn around after and trade away Trey Hendrickson (more draft capital). Pearce is the highest Edge Rusher on their list according to my PDS (3rd highest overall behind Starks and Barron).

22) Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

Reason: Receiver and Tight End are the expectation here. With Loveland long gone, it makes the decision a bit easier. There's no question about McMillan's talent, but his comments about his game film study habits I believe will lead to a slide, the Chargers bring that slide to an end.

23) *TRADE* New Orleans Saints (via Green Bay and Philadelphia)

Pick: CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)

Reason: New Orleans' biggest needs allows them to drop down and add draft capital (while also lessening their cap hit by roughly $9 mill, which is something they really need to take into consideration too). It just so happens that one of the top Corners (my #1 CB) slides all the way to them.

24) Minnesota Vikings

Pick: WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)

Reason: If you read my "Acting GM" mock, then yes, yes I am sticking with my guns here. The majority believe Minnesota will go Safety. I believe Safety is a legitimate option here, but I keep coming back to Receiver, and my PDS has my back on that with Egbuka holding a 3.5% edge over Maxwell Hairston.

25) Houston Texans

Pick: WR Luther Burden III (Missouri)

Reason: Just about everyone believes this pick will be an Offensive Lineman. I can't find anything in the rumor mill for Houston. Receiver is clearly still a need, even after the Christian Kirk trade, and Burden is the better value here. Burden is also tied with both Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori according to my PDS, which I found interesting since Safety is not a need.

26) Los Angeles Rams

Pick: CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

Reason: Expectation is that the Rams go Corner. My PDS says the pick should be Malaki Starks. I suppose that might be a possibility if they feel he can rotate into the Slot, but Corner is a way bigger need and Hairston is right behind Starks for the PDS.

27) Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Edge Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)

Reason: Defensive Line or Edge Rusher is the assumption, with a few believing Safety could be the pick. My PDS thinks it'll be a Corner, but I have my doubts about Baltimore going Corner in the first round two years in a row. If I ignore Corner, then the next player is Stewart.

28) Detroit Lions

Pick: Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

Reason: It has to be Edge right? I mean, Hutch is supposed to be back for the start of the season, but they saw what happened when he was gone. They have to address the spot opposite of him. If they feel the same way, then Ezeiruaku is the pick according to my PDS, if they don't feel that way, then Jayden Higgins is the pick.

29) Washington Commanders

Pick: RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

Reason: In this scenario, all of the Edge Rushers have disappeared in front of them. But that's alright, cause there's also a rumor that they would like to land an every-down back. Depending on what they mean by that could indicate which back would be at the top of their board. Henderson is one of the better receiving backs in the draft, but he struggled with injuries at Ohio State. He stayed healthy this past season while splitting carries with Quinshon Judkins. If by every-down back they mean someone who can handle the heavy workload, then Judkins would likely their top option, but he's not as good out of the backfield. My guess is they mean a Running Back who can run the ball and catch well, and Henderson fits that mold better than Judkins.

30) Buffalo Bills

Pick: CB Shavon Revel (ECU)

Reason: Cornerback has the majority of the vote, and with the draft playing out like this, Revel is the pick according to my PDS.

31) Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: OG Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)

Reason: The Chiefs need Offensive Line help which is why a large majority of the mocks have KC taking a Lineman, though there doesn't seem to be a consensus on a player. Whether they choose someone with position versatility or a pure Guard/Tackle, I don't think there's a wrong answer. They need help at both positions and should use more of their selections along the Line regardless of who they take here.

32) *TRADE* New Orleans Saints via (Philadelphia and Green Bay)

Pick: QB Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)

Reason: Here's my somewhat wild scenario. With the Derek Carr injury news the Saints are eyeing possible QB replacement options. Even if Sanders is still there at 9, I believe they would look to trade back, reason being that Sanders or otherwise has a very good chance of not panning out, and they have too many needs to throw it away on Sanders at 9, so they trade back, and then trade back again, all the while adding additional draft capital. However, at pick 23 Jahdae Barron landed in their laps, so they use some of that draft capital in order to move up from pick 40 to get in front of the Browns. Dart is a more polished passer than Jalen Milroe, so he offers the better chance at immediately starting. Having said that, Milroe reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts before he transferred to Oklahoma, and Kellen Moore is coming from Hurts. As for Green Bay trading out, the only rumor I've seen is that they really like Princely Umanmielen, and most people think they'll go Edge Rusher. He's unlikely to go in the first round, so dropping into the early second round only helps them.

*The image used for the article is a screenshot from the result given by PFF's mock draft simulator. If you haven't played around with it before, you should, it's fun, and there's a lot of different scenarios you can set it up to run. https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=ed225bcf-80de-4380-b0a4-18de9cef2039