Lance's 2025 Rookie QB Dynasty Outlook
The guy that could make an immediate impact
Cam Ward (Tennessee): This year is really simple, there's one rookie with a clear line to being his team's QB1 right away. Ward has plenty of talent, I have my concerns, but those don't hang around his ability to produce statistically. Major concern outside of his control, and the one you should take into account if you're trying to decide between targeting Ward or making a trade, is can Tennessee's O-Line hold-up? We've seen plenty of highly touted QBs throughout NFL history crumble early in their careers because their O-Line couldn't block.
Could surprise right away
Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland): Kevin Stefanski does tremendous work when he has a Quarterback that fits his system. My expectation is that Joe Flacco will get the nod week 1, but I would not be surprised if one of the rookies shines through preseason as they get more comfortable in Stefanski's system. I had a higher grade on Gabriel going into the draft, and I had concerns with Sanders' attitude, but reports seem to be that Sanders is all-in on learning and proving himself, so I'm not counting him out. If either one gets the start, they would be worth a bench stash just because of what Stefanski has proven in the past (not with Watson, who is not a fit in his system, but look at Flacco's first stint in Cleveland: 1616 yards and 13 touchdowns in 5 games. Or Jameis Winston: 2121 yards and 13 touchdowns in 7 games. Or Kirk Cousins in Stefanski's 2019 season as Minnesota's OC: 3603 yards and 26 touchdowns in 15 games).
Could take on an immediate role if the incumbent struggles
Jaxson Dart (NY Giants): The expectation is that Russell Wilson is under Center for the Giants week 1. However, if the Giants start the season 0-4 (a real possibility), Daboll could very well make the switch to Dart, if for no other reason than to show the front office what he can do for their new first-round Quarterback's development in the hopes of saving his job for one more year. The Giants have a superstar in Malik Nabers, a solid pair of starters next to him in Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, a promising Tight End in Theo Johnson, and a pair of young talented Running Backs in Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Cam Skattebo. The biggest point of concern would be Andrew Thomas staying healthy. But as a whole, it's not a bad setup for Dart when he does eventually take over.
Intriguing developmental types (i.e. maybe in 3 to 4 years?)
Jalen Milroe (Seattle): If you've watched any Alabama games the last two years than you know two things for sure about Milroe. One, he is insanely athletic. And two, he has a powerful arm. Those two things alone aren't guaranteed to make you a superstar in the NFL (see Anthony Richardson), but they are most commonly referred to as things you can't coach. Luckily for Milroe, he won't be expected to take over right away. If Seattle can develop him well, then he could take over in 3 years when Darnold's contract is up.
Cam Miller (Las Vegas): Loved the pick in the 6th round. Geno Smith is under contract for at least the next two seasons, three if the Raiders elect not to cut him in 2027 to save on cap room. That's 2 to 3 seasons of Cam Miller getting to sit back and learn, meanwhile (and hopefully), the Raiders will continue to build up the offensive weapons and O-Line. Miller was really good at North Dakota State, but some time to sit and learn should do wonders for him.
Will Howard (Pittsburgh): Ok, obviously not all 5 players in this section are going to succeed, but they're on here because they had a day 2 grade on my draft board (Howard and Miller [done after the draft]), or they had day 3 grades and landed in situations that I really like (Milroe, McCord and Rourke). It's far more likely none of them succeed, than it is that even 3 of them do, but I'm banking on at least 1. Howard's situation is anything but promising, Pittsburgh has struggled at the position since Big Ben retired, their OC would much rather run the ball, and their O-Line remains a bit of a mess. But I had a day 2 grade on Howard, and Rodgers is in line to start for this season (and hopefully spend some time teaching Howard), so hopefully he's able to develop quickly enough that Pitt doesn't feel like they have to take a QB in the first round next year.
Kyle McCord (Philadelphia): Sirianni does solid work with his Quarterbacks. You can point to "Hurts didn't even crack 3000 yards in 2024" all you want, if you add in his rushing yards he was over 3500. But beyond Hurts even, Jacoby Brissett's best season came in Indy when Sirianni was his OC. Philip Rivers ended his career with a 4100 yard season, again Indy with Sirianni as his OC. There were plenty of experts, when Hurts was coming out, that didn't think he could make it as a passer in the NFL, but since Sirianni took over in Philly in 2021 Hurts hasn't had a Passer Rating under 87, has had his completion percentage above 65% in 3 of those seasons, and has only hit double-digit interceptions once. McCord won't get a shot in Philly barring injury, but if Sirianni develops him and he shows off that development in any opportunity he gets, then maybe someone else will give him a chance down the road.
Kurtis Rourke (San Francisco): Like McCord, Rourke is unlikely to get a chance to start in San Fran, especially after that contract they just gave Purdy. However, Shanahan is a very well respected Quarterback developer around the league, so if Rourke starts showing that development, someone is likely to jump at the chance of reaping the fruits of Shanahan's labor.
The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future
Tyler Shough (New Orleans): Shough is going to get a chance to play this season, even if he loses the starting job to Spencer Rattler, he will get playing time at some point just so the Saints can verify what they have before next year's draft. He went in the second round which would typically raise his value on a board such as this. However, this is the same guy that managed to play in just 34 games over the last 5 seasons (that's 6.8 per season). He was hurt, A LOT. And the fact that he went as early as he did is a negative in my opinion. The expectations are going to be higher and that burden can play a psychological factor in a player's game.
Riley Leonard (Indianapolis): Leonard, Mertz and Ewers are all in the same boat for me, I had an "undrafted" grade on all three. Leonard would have the best chance out of the three because Indy's QB room is anything but set, so maybe he gets some work toward the end of the year, but I wouldn't bet on some spectacular showing that earns him the QB1 role going into 2026.
Graham Mertz (Houston): With Stroud starting, Mertz's only hope is to win the backup spot, but that's unlikely too. He'll most likely end up on the practice squad, and I'd be willing to bet he's gone entirely (or in the UFL/CFL) in 3 to 4 years.
Quinn Ewers (Miami): Miami will try to bring Ewers' full talent to the forefront, I have no doubt about that. The issue I have is that they have a QB1 that consistently deals with injuries, so they targeted a QB they hope to develop and it just so happens to be another guy that dealt with injuries throughout his college career. Interesting choice.
