Lance's 2025 Rookie RB Dynasty Outlook

The clear number 1

Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas): There's no question here. Jeanty is the #1 rookie period. He's got a Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator that love to run the ball. He's got a Quarterback that isn't a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson type. And he's got an insane amount of vision, contact balance, and burst. If you don't take him at 1, you are wrong.

Likely a bell-cow back year 1

Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland): The pundits can say what they want about the Browns also drafting Dylan Sampson, or Judkins' lack of Receiving chops. As I recall, many had doubts about Nick Chubb coming out, a little because of the knee, but also because he was not a receiving back in college. All he ended up doing was starring as Cleveland's RB1 as a rookie with 1145 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, and that was with Duke Johnson working as Cleveland's primary receiving back. I could see Judkins topping those numbers.

Could be the immediate starter, but….

Omarion Hampton (LA Chargers): but...Najee Harris. Hampton is going to become THE guy at some point. Whether that's at some point this year by proving he is head and shoulders above Harris, or next year after Harris' one-year deal ends. From a dynasty standpoint, I wouldn't let the Najee Harris aspect keep me from drafting Hampton, especially when you consider who his Head Coach is and what a phenomenal job they've done on that O-Line. But Harris is the reason Hampton isn't in the tier above this one.

TreVeyon Henderson (New England): but...Rhamondre Stevenson and injuries. First, let's address Stevenson. He's been the main guy in New England for 3 seasons now (limited gameplay in 2023 because of injuries included). However, we've seen his efficiency fall off a cliff since he broke-out in 2022. Not to mention he fumbled the ball 7 times last year, and the previous coaching staff continued to put him back in. I would be surprised if Henderson doesn't win the starting role outright from the jump. The bigger concern to me is the injuries. He was everything he was expected to be in his freshman season, but then he only managed 18 total games over his Sophomore and Junior seasons due to injuries. He got back on track in 2024 though, playing every game, eclipsing 1000 yards, and averaging a career high 7.1 YPC. He stayed healthy, and I feel like a lot of the credit for that goes to the Judkins addition. He had another legit starter that split the workload with him. If Stevenson can't be that guy, and the Patriots elect to run Henderson as a bona-fide bell-cow, then I worry about wear and tear.

R.J. Harvey (Denver): but...the Broncos signed JK Dobbins. At this point, Dobbins is pretty much a lock to miss time due to some sort of injury, so I wouldn't weigh his signing to harshly toward Harvey. If anything, I think it shows how the Denver coaching staff feels about the backfield behind Harvey. I would expect to see a 1-2 punch with Harvey and Dobbins fueling the Sean Payton offense, you know, the one that he would like to run, but hasn't been able to yet.

Kaleb Johnson (Pittsburgh): but...everyone is still talking up Jaylen Warren. I'm not that high on Warren. Personally, I think Johnson is a much better fit in Arthur Smith's offense. The most carries Warren has had in a season is 149 and that was with a "struggling" Najee Harris. The bigger concern is that Warren is a pass catcher, and he's almost guaranteed to gobble up a larger amount of targets that would otherwise have gone to Johnson.

Cam Skattebo (NY Giants): but...we don't know how the Giants are going to split this backfield. Skattebo is the better pure runner, Tracy is the better pass catcher, but both players can do both things well. I wouldn't even liken this to a Gibbs-Montgomery duo. If anything it's more like Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara for the 2017 Saints.

Could pay dividends earlier than the next group

Bhayshul Tuten (Jacksonville): This goes one of two ways for Tuten. Either Jacksonville trades Travis Etienne early on, opening the door for Tuten to run alongside Tank Bigsby. Or, they don't find a suitable trade partner, they stick with the Etienne-Bigsby combo for 2025, and they let Etienne walk at the end of the year opening the door for Tuten in 2026. Right now Tuten is going mid-to-late second round in dynasty rookie drafts. That feels about right considering what he could prove to be this season. If that's you taking him though, just be prepared to weather the storm in the event Etienne doesn't get moved.

Deep Sleepers and Handcuffs

Trevor Etienne (Carolina): Jonathan Brooks is out for this season, and given the back to back ACL tears, you have to wonder if he comes back from the injury at 100% at all. Chuba Hubbard will hold down the fort, and with the last two seasons as an example, he can do it at a near bell-cow type role. However, Etienne is pretty talented in his own right, and if he can stay out of trouble, he could push for a bigger role than Miles Sanders did over the last two years. He'll have to compete with Rico Dowdle to get that role though, which is why he's down here and not in the tier above. He's definitely an intriguing rookie to watch though.

Dylan Sampson (Cleveland): The presumed Yang to Judkins' Yin. I'm not all aboard that train though. I felt Sampson's value, based on where the analysts viewed him, was too high. You saw what I think the Browns will do with Judkins in what I wrote above. That really just leaves clean-up duty for Sampson if I'm right. But, if the others are right, than Sampson has third-down/pass catching value coming his way. Don't forget that Jerome Ford is around for at least one more season.

Woody Marks (Houston): After the Nick Chubb signing, Marks is now sitting behind two aging starters and Dameon Pierce. Chubb and Joe Mixon both have their known struggles (Chubb with injuries, Mixon with efficiency), and both will be 30 before the 2026 season starts, so maybe Marks is able to wiggle his way into a large role next year. For now, he's just a stash player, and I wouldn't worry about Pierce when it comes to Marks' current or future value.

Jarquez Hunter (LA Rams): How many Blake Corum dynasty owners saw the Rams take Hunter in the 4th round and panicked? If you didn't, then consider this your warning to keep an eye on how things are playing out in the backfield when training camp starts. Hunter is not a dominant player, he's consistent. He won't blow you away, but he will get the job done. After all the hype surrounding Corum during the 2024 preseason it was really disappointing to see the Rams basically not use him at all during the season. That possibility could also await Hunter. However, no new contract has been handed to Kyren Williams yet, so the aspect of what could be in 2026 is tantalizing. In other words, don't sell those Corum shares just yet, and don't be afraid to draft and stash Hunter if you have the room on your bench.

Jaydon Blue (Dallas): I don't understand the people who saw the Blue pick and thought "yep, there's Dallas' RB1 going into the season." The only reason Blue ended up starting for Texas in 2024 was because of injuries, and even then he only carried the ball 135 times. He's not an RB1. At best he proves to be a solid pass catcher out of the backfield and change-of-pace back, and takes on that role full-time next season provided Javonte Williams (a solid pass catcher in his own right) and/or Miles Sanders both leave after the season is over.

D.J. Giddens (Indianapolis): If you saw my draft grades article, then you likely saw my comments on Giddens being my favorite pick made by Indy. Jonathan Taylor is a very talented RB1, but he's only ever played a full season once, he's missed at least 3 games in each of the last 3 years, and he's coming off a 300+ attempt season. The Colts did sign Khalil Herbert, but I like Giddens' potential more. He's a solid handcuff option and his value will soar if Taylor gets hurt.

Jordan James (San Francisco): Shanahan offense's lead to Running Back success, and CMC's injury history is no joke. James strikes me as more of an RB2 type than someone who will produce well when thrown into the RB1 role, and the Niners took Guerendo in last year's draft. The path to playing time isn't out of the question though.

Devin Neal (New Orleans): Neal, to me, is the most interesting "where should he go in dynasty rookie drafts" player available. He had a very successful career at Kansas. He measured in bigger than I thought he would, but also slower, and then he put up some pretty impressive jumps, demonstrating his explosiveness. Kamara turns 30 before the season kicks off and he has missed 7 games combined in the last 2 seasons. Kendre Miller is still around, but I feel like if he could be THE guy he would've shown glimpses of that already. Neal could prove to be the steal of your draft, or a major reach, depending on how Kamara's career wraps-up and how high Neal is taken.

Tahj Brooks (Cincinnati): One of my favorite backs in this draft, so it was really disappointing when he landed in Cincy. Chase Brown put his stamp on the RB1 role last season and he's just entering his third season. The Bengals also have Zack Moss and Samaje Perine under contract. That means Brooks' value is that of a player you put on your watchlist and you leave it be. I was too high on him not to list him in this section though. Perhaps next season, once Moss is gone, he can establish himself as the handcuff to Brown.

Ollie Gordon (Miami): Gordon is the opposite of Achane. He's a big bruiser. Not much in the way of speed, but Achane has that covered. Miami did spend more draft capital on Jaylen Wright in the 2024 draft than they did on Gordon in this one, but Wright is a middle ground between Achane and Gordon's builds physically and athletically. Gordon's value could start out as short-yardage and goal line, and turn into something bigger if an injury occurs.

Brashard Smith (Kansas City): Really intriguing deep sleeper. Pacheco and Hunt are likely to split the backfield this season. However, Hunt is nearing that scary 30 year-old mark, and Pacheco is entering the final year of his contract. Given K.C.'s willingness to spend lightly on the RB position recently, I wouldn't be surprised if they let Pacheco walk after the season, opening the door for someone like Smith (or a late-round pick in next year's draft). Smith is a former Receiver turned Running Back. He's fast (something the Chiefs have a lot of love for), he's got great hands (something Mahomes will really appreciate), and he was very productive as the RB1 at SMU this past season.

Damien Martinez (Seattle): Kenneth Walker is almost certainly gone after this season, opening the door for Zach Charbonnet to officially take over as RB1 and for someone else to step into Charbonnet's role, i.e. Martinez? Given Walker's injury history, he could get a chance at that role this season. However, guys entering the last year of their contracts tend to have big seasons in an effort to get paid, so this could easily swing the other direction too.

Kyle Monangai (Chicago): Ben Johnson ran the snot out of Gibbs and Montgomery in Detroit. He's got a Gibbs-esque back in Swift, but the question remains as to who will take on the Montgomery role. The favorite seems to be Roschon Johnson, but Johnson has gotten the chance to step-up on a few occasions and hasn't taken advantage, so I wouldn't rule out Monangai as a deep sleeper. On the flip side of that, I caught a video of all their RBs running through a drill at OTAs, and everyone looked smooth in the drill except Monangai who appeared to be wearing cement blocks instead of cleats, so he could very well tank his own value.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Washington): An injury prevented him from doing anything at Arizona this past season, but he was a beast at New Mexico in 2023. Washington reportedly wanted a do-it-all back heading into the draft. I don't think Croskey-Merritt is that guy, so my expectation would be that Robinson and Ekeler hold it down for another year and we'll see what 2026 brings. However, Ekeler is a 30 year-old back on the smaller side with an injury history, and Robinson tends to miss a couple games every year, so maybe JCM will get a shot.

The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future

LeQuint Allen (Jacksonville): He averaged 4.4 and 4.5 yards per carry in each of the two seasons he started at Syracuse. He also didn't run his forty during the draft process, so I have some concerns about speed, and if he can be anything more than an occasional spell back.

Phil Mafah (Dallas): He's a big back, he didn't run his forty during the lead up to the draft, and I got to see him play some at Clemson, which doesn't alleviate my concern about speed. Dallas will run Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders this season with Jaydon Blue sprinkled in I'm sure. And I'd be surprised if they blow-off the position again next year. If Mafah makes the team this year, he'll be buried on the depth chart, and I don't see that changing down the road.

Kalel Mullings (Tennessee): Mullings is in a similar boat as Mafah. He's a big back that didn't run his forty and I have concerns about speed. He's also sitting a little deep on the depth chart (behind Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears), but he's got them both beat in size, so I'd see a potential short yardage and goal-line type role, unlike Mafah.