Lance's 2025 Rookie WR Dynasty Outlook

The guys with the best shot at fantasy starter value this year

Tetairoa McMillan (Carolina): Top 10 selection with the size, strength and athleticism to be a true WR1. Bryce Young will scare some people away, but he had a 61.5% completion rate, 6.9 YPA, averaged around 226 Y/G passing, and had an 11 to 3 TD to Int ratio after he took back over in week 12. Those numbers jump to 64.8% completion rate and 7 to 0 TD to Int ratio if you only look at his final three weeks. In other words, Young is moving in the right direction and a true WR1 like McMillan will hopefully help elevate him further, instead of the alternative.

Matthew Golden (Green Bay): I'm unsure of how to really list Golden for this. With Green Bay taking him in the first, and the inconsistent play/injuries they've dealt with from their Receiving corps over the last 2 years, it seems pretty clear what message they're trying to send. However, Jordan Love has spread the ball around a lot, perhaps more so than any other Quarterback in the league, over the last two seasons. I think the floor is 80 targets and the ceiling is around 110 if the Packers commit to him as their WR1. Even with 80 though, his speed should help turn that into a better fantasy season than most.

I'm not really sure if he goes in the list above, or below, or somewhere below that maybe?

Travis Hunter (Jacksonville): Based purely on talent, Hunter belongs in the list above. But the Jags are going to utilize him as a two-way player, and we have absolutely no idea what that's going to look like. Will he get his way and play 100% of the snaps? Will the Jags prioritize him at Receiver to aid Trevor Lawrence? Or will each game dictate where he's needed more? Tons of questions. If you feel confident that he's going to play a lot at Receiver every game, than take him in the top 5. If you don't have that level of confidence, I wouldn't blame you for passing on him in favor of McMillan or Golden, or maybe even someone in the list right below this. Go with your gut.

The guys that are more likely to make a bigger impact this year than the rest

Jayden Higgins (Houston): The Nico Collins clone based on the comps he was receiving heading into the draft, and the athletic testing. Diggs is gone, Dell is out for the season, Kirk is not a real threat, and they took Noel a round later than Higgins, plus Noel figures to be a Slot guy. The only concern for me is can Stroud rebound from his Sophomore slump season?

Tre Harris (LA Chargers): My concern over Quentin Johnston and Mike Williams' presence is minimal. Johnston improved some last season, but not anywhere near where he should be as a former first-round pick, and Williams is past his prime. Harris is a strong outside Receiver with deep threat ability, ready to pair nicely with McConkey's quick underneath routes.

Jack Bech (Las Vegas): In 2022 Geno Smith supported two top 20 fantasy Receivers. In 2023 Metcalf was 15 and Lockett was 34. And in 2024 JSN was 14 and Metcalf was 34. At worst I believe Bech is looking at that 34 ranking. However, Jakobi Meyers isn't on the same level of talent as 2022 Lockett, 2023 Metcalf or 2024 JSN. More than likely Bech either hits that mid teens ceiling, or the two balance the numbers out and end up somewhere in the mid to high 20s. Regardless, Bech's floor looks like a solid Flex rotational option, with his ceiling being a WR2 on your fantasy team, and that's all provided he wins the starting spot opposite Meyers. The real question is, are you feeling lucky?

Kyle Williams (New England): Too rich for your blood? Hear me out. Williams was really good at Washington State. He's not the biggest guy, or the fastest, but he has decent size and he's athletic enough. He runs good routes, he has solid hands, and he separates well (something the Patriots didn't have last year). He gets the job done. Stefon Diggs being there should only benefit him, by keeping the attention off of him as a rookie. The rest of the competition is minimal especially after what we saw last season, with Demario Douglas being the biggest threat, and he's purely a Slot Receiver. So yes, I do believe Williams could make a bigger impact this year than the guys below this point.

Will need either an injury or trade to make an impact this year, but the future is bright

Emeka Egbuka (Tampa Bay): Less than ideal for Egbuka. Not only is Mike Evans the Energizer bunny, but the Bucs handed Godwin a new contract this offseason, and Jalen McMillan proved himself down the stretch with 7 touchdowns in his final 5 games while averaging a little over 60 yards/game in that stretch. At best he's given the Slot role from the start. At worst Godwin plays out all three of the years on his new contract, and Mike Evans remains a monster into his mid-30s forcing Egbuka to the back-burner until year 4. Regardless, being a first round pick is enough to keep the future bright unless he goes the Quentin Johnston route, or worse, the Jalen Reagor route.

Luther Burden (Chicago): I had a day 1 grade on him, and I know a lot of people viewed him as a borderline first round player. The Bears took him early in the second despite having other needs, which means they think highly of him too. The downside is that they have D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift. So, even if he earns the WR3 role right away, he's still likely to be buried on the targets list. High draft capital spent though, and the talent is there, not to mention the chip that grew on his shoulder when the first round ended, so the future is bright.

Could make a difference immediately, but the QB play/offensive situation could also get in the way

Isaac TeSlaa (Detroit): When I'm looking at how to fill out these lists I take three things into consideration: How they graded out for my draft boards, how much draft capital was used on them, and what the competition on the team looks like for them. TeSlaa had a day 3 grade, which would typically not land him here, but the Lions selected him in round 3, and his primary competition for the outside Receiver role opposite Jameson Williams (St. Brown is typically in the Slot in 3 Receiver sets) is Tim Patrick, a man that tore his ACL three years ago, tore his Achilles two years ago, and saw just 44 targets last year. He'll have to prove himself, to be able to make an immediate difference, but it's not out of the question. Detroit is a run first offense, and that should also weigh into your evaluation of TeSlaa.

Pat Bryant (Denver): I had a hard time figuring out where to put him. I had an undrafted grade on him, and personally, I don't think he pans out. However, the Broncos invested a 3rd round pick on him, and their Receiver room is relatively open, so sticking him at the very bottom seemed unreasonable. This is more like, "could make a difference immediately, but he would have to prove me wrong."

Sleeper potential, either because of where they landed, or because they went much later than they should have

Elic Ayomanor (Tennessee): Chimere Dike was selected by Tennessee before they took Ayomanor, but I think Ayomanor is the the better player. For those thinking that Van Jefferson is going to be one of the starting three for Tennessee, that is laughable. He hasn't proven himself anywhere else despite all the hype. Ayomanor beats him out. The questions then become, how much do the Titans let Ward throw it in his rookie season? And how much work is Tyler Lockett going to get as the WR2 next to Calvin Ridley?

Jaylin Lane (Washington): In my draft grades article I listed Lane as my favorite pick for Washington and pointed out that the speedster role he's likely to step into has a decent amount of targets vacated by the departures of Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. It'll be interesting to see if they utilize that role the same way they did last year, or just move those targets/touches over to Deebo Samuel.

Might be worth a bench stash, or a late season add before the offseason starts

Jaylin Noel (Houston): I was a big fan of Noel's right up until Houston selected him. Now he's stuck behind Christian Kirk for the Slot role this year, and likely will have to battle Tank Dell for the same role next year (provided he gets back to 100%). And that will still make him either the third or fourth receiving option in this offense, at best.

Savion Williams (Green Bay): Williams is a tank, but he also dealt with drops. The Packers used a third round pick on him, but they also have loads of young talent at the position. If they don't swing a trade or two for one or two of the young guys (like Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs) then Williams goes from bench stash to watch list.

Tai Felton (Minnesota): When it comes to Felton you'll need to keep an eye on Jordan Addison as much as you do Felton. Tee Higgins reset the WR2 market this offseason and Addison is open for contract discussions following this season. If it seems like he's shooting for the same kind of payout that Higgins got than it would be in Minnesota's best interest to shop him around and start working with Felton to take over the WR2 role.

Chimere Dike (Tennessee): I had a lower grade on Dike than I did Ayomanor, which is why Dike is down here and Ayomanor is up there, but Tennessee saw something they liked in him. If he and Ayomanor can show enough as the season progresses they could keep Tennessee from throwing high draft capital (or big money) at the position next offseason.

Jalen Royals (Kansas City): I really like Royals from a versatility standpoint. He's likely a better in the Slot than on the outside, but he can play both. I don't love the landing spot though. K.C. took Worthy in the first last year, they're very high on Rashee Rice, and they still have Marquise Brown. Behind those three it's decently open, but it's not just those three he would be competing for targets with. Travis Kelce is the actual WR1 in this offense, and Noah Gray saw a decent amount of work last season. Should Rice's legal trouble catch up with him, or Marquise Brown leaves after this season, or Travis Kelce hangs up the cleats, or a combination of all that, then Royals' value will go up, but for now he's a bench stash.

Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Las Vegas): The big three for this offense should be Jakobi Meyers, Jack Bech, and Thornton. However, Geno Smith has not supported three legitimate fantasy pass catchers. Thornton figures to be the deep threat between the three, and if he can take advantage of that and build off of it, then the Raiders may be happy to move on from Meyers after this season.

Tory Horton (Seattle): Horton is very talented, and in a different universe I'm sure he avoided the injury in his final season at Colorado State, dominated once again, and found himself going in the first or second round. To Seattle's benefit, that was not the case. This offense is going to feature JSN and Kupp, with the occasional MVS deep route. But there should be an opening for Horton to work in, and should Kupp get hurt, that role would get even bigger.

Add to your Watch Lists

Jordan Watkins (San Francisco): What is San Fran going to do with Brandon Aiyuk? The more I see their social media team posts, the more I get the feeling they want him gone. Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but there's the possibility that I'm not, which would open the door for Watkins or Neyor (more on him below) or one of the veterans they have to step into the WR3 role behind Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings.

Arian Smith (NY Jets): The Jets opted for a Tackle in the first round despite also needing a pass catcher to go with Garrett Wilson (they also needed a Tackle, so it's not a knock, merely a point). They took Mason Taylor in the second round to address their need at Tight End, but they didn't go Receiver until round 4 with Arian Smith, who would end up being the only Receiver they drafted. I'm not really high on Smith, but Allen Lazard is a WR3 at best, and Josh Reynolds is a journeyman who can usually give you a few good games each year, but isn't someone to be relied on as a WR2. Maybe Smith can prove a better asset for the Jets in training camp.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (LA Chargers): I was really high on Lambert-Smith after his pro day numbers came out. His forty (4.37) and short shuttle (3.98) are lethal numbers. The production wasn't really there, but I'd point to the two schools he played for (Penn State and Auburn) to address that. The Chargers seem to have a type though, cause they drafted KLS a year after they took McConkey who also posted a sub 4.4 forty (4.39) and sub 4 short shuttle (3.97). Tre Harris had the higher investment, they still have Quentin Johnston and they signed Mike Williams, so it may be a bit before Lambert-Smith gets an actual shot.

Tommy Mellott (Las Vegas): Uber-athletic Quarterback out of Montana State. You did read that right. He'll be moving to Receiver...maybe Tom Brady had a hand in this one. He'll be buried on the depth chart for now at least, and of course we've seen plenty of QB to WR transitions just flat out fail, but Mellott's athleticism (highlights include 4.42 forty, 41" vertical, and 6.93 3-cone drill) is worth the development time they'll need to spend on him.

Konata Mumpfield (LA Rams): Can the Rams strike gold again with a day 3 WR pick? Probably not. The odds certainly aren't in their favor. But Davante Adams is a short-term answer, so maybe Mumpfield gets a legitimate shot.

Andrew Armstrong (Miami) and Isaiah Neyor (San Francisco): Usually I don't include undrafted players on these lists, but I'm putting these two in. I had a day 2 grade on Armstrong, and Miami needs another Receiver to show promise so they can finally move on from the headache Tyreek Hill brings every offseason. As for Neyor, day 3 grade on him, but there was some buzz about how he was looking at rookie OTAs. If that buzz picks up again in training camp he's one you'll want to watch.

The remaining drafted players that I don't see having a particularly bright future

Dominic Lovett (Detroit): He received a Day 3 grade from me, and the Lions did spend a pick on him, albeit a 7th rounder, so watch list is where he belongs in theory. In reality, the draft capital spent was essentially nothing, and the Lions have too many options with not enough targets to go around for someone like Lovett to shock the world.

Jimmy Horn Jr. (Carolina), LaJohntay Wester (Baltimore), Ricky White (Seattle), Kaden Prather (Buffalo), Tez Johnson (Tampa Bay), Junior Bergen (San Francisco):

Every one of these players received an undrafted grade from me and were drafted in the 6th or 7th round of the NFL draft. It really is that simple.