Lance's Fantasy Football Draft Tips
I’ve had a running fantasy football draft tips article for a few years now that I’ve been pretty apt to stick to because it’s helped me finish top three in numerous leagues over the years. But recently I got curious and started looking at fantasy point totals within each position. There’s that adage that’s been around for a little while now that the difference between QB1 and QB10 isn’t really that big, so it’s better to look at other positions early on. I got curious and decided to see how true that was, so I took the top 10 point totals as well as #15 and #20 for QBs, TEs, Ks and Ds over the last three years. For RBs and WRs I did the top 20 as well as #30 and #40. Then I looked at various point differentials within each position, for example the #1 QB vs the #5 QB, and used that to see what positions it is important to target early on.
So, below you will see two sections, my Dos and Don’ts section that includes many of the tips I had before. And my when to focus on each position section, that’s based on the point total differentials.
Dos and Don’ts
1) Never take a Quarterback in back to back rounds unless you are taking both of them toward the end of your draft. If your QB1 is good then the backup will only ever see your starting lineup on the QB1’s bye week, or in the event of injury, so it’s not worth taking two Quarterbacks early in the draft.
2) Make sure to check the injury report the day of the draft! Several years ago I had a coach take a Running Back in the 3rd round who had been put on Injured Reserve a week earlier. That same year a different coach took a Receiver in the 5th round who had been put on Injured Reserve the morning of the draft (about 5 hours before we drafted). This isn’t as big a deal in today’s online drafting era, but I’d still recommend getting online before you draft and checking out how serious the injuries are for the “big-name” players.
3) Don’t be a homer. It might be tempting to focus on players from your favorite team, because you know who they are and you like cheering for them, but it will destroy your team. Taking one or two players won’t hurt you, drafting the entire offense will. I’ve seen it happen twice, both times the coaches who did it finished toward the bottom of the league.
4) Pay attention to Bye Weeks. It’s perfectly fine to have a QB, RB, WR, and TE on bye the same week, what you want to avoid is having two or more guys who play the same position on bye the same week. Also, I usually only take one Kicker and one Defense and then drop a player who hasn’t done anything to pick up a replacement for their bye week. Since that’s how I like to coach I make sure the Kicker and Defense I draft have different bye weeks.
5) Look for hook-ups. A hook-up is a Quarterback and Wide Receiver or a Quarterback and Tight End from the same team. It’s called a hook-up, because when the QB throws a touchdown to the WR or TE that you drafted you get 9 or 10 points (3 or 4 for the QB’s Touchdown and 6 for the WR or TE who caught the touchdown) rather than just the individual point total. Be sure you avoid reaching for hook-ups though. They are really nice to have, but only if you are taking the players in the round they should be landing in. I remember a number of years ago I took Charles Johnson (WR) in round 5 and Teddy Bridgewater (QB) in round 6. Both were taken much earlier than they should have been, and it was a large reason for why I had a terrible season.
6) On the subject of hook-ups, try to avoid taking more than two players from one offense. It’s that whole “too many eggs in one basket” saying. You don’t want to find yourself relying heavily on one team. Also, avoid taking two Receivers, or a Receiver and a Tight End from the same team. Some people think that it’s ok to do this because “when one isn’t catching the ball the other will,” but they are wrong in a few ways. The main reason they are wrong and you want to avoid this situation is that you should be hoping you landed the one guy from that Receiving corps who is going to be getting you the most points, otherwise you’re essentially saying “I’ll take a zero with one guy while the other guy gets me 14,” that still averages out to just 7 points.
7) If you see a guy falling that should’ve gone much earlier, and you haven’t seen anything about an injury, or a suspension, or a possible holdout, take him! Sometimes players just get lost in the shuffle and coaches forget they exist. Other times coaches take a biased outlook toward players because of the team they play for, so they avoid them. Double check the injury list, and if you don’t see him on it, grab him.
8) Go with your gut! There have been way too many instances where I’ve gotten to a round and a player that I think is going to be really good is still sitting there, but instead I take a guy who is ranked higher and it backfires big time. If you have a gut feeling a player who is ranked a little lower is going to have a great year, then go with that guy.
9) Most importantly, have fun!! This is fantasy football, not the NFL. Even if you’re in a pay to play league make sure you enjoy yourself, do some trash talking, and stay involved! If you’re reading this article chances are you’re newer to this hobby, it’s not something that will necessarily click right off the bat, so as long as you keep at it over the course of the season you’ll pick up on more things and be better prepared for the next season.
When to focus on each position
NOTE: When I say top five or top ten, that’s a relative term. Guys that I have ranked top five for a position won’t necessarily match what someone over at CBS or Yahoo has, and may not even match who you think is top five. So take it from that viewpoint.
Quarterbacks: It’s funny that this all started with the Quarterback position, because I firmly believed that the top ten guys were so close in point totals it wouldn’t make sense to draft one early. I was wrong. Outside of Running Back, the point difference at Quarterback is the biggest. Your goal should be to land one of the top five guys at the position and I would be looking to do so in the 2nd-5th round range (5th is being conservative). If you aren’t able to land one of them I’d start looking at the guys ranked 6-10 in the 5th-9th round range. If worst comes to worst I’d be using back to back double-digit rounds to take a couple of sleepers with high potential!
Running Backs: The gap between Running Backs across the board is crazy. Your goal should be to get a top ten back and a top 15 back just to start. I’d also strongly consider making sure your RB3 is top 20.
Wide Receiver: SO MANY PEOPLE have been talking up the zero RB strategy in recent years, but if you want to go zero anything go with a zero Receiver strategy. Seriously, trying to land a top ten guy would be nice, but after that you can look to pair him with a couple of guys from the 20-40 range. The point difference between WR1 and WR20 is less than QB1/QB20, RB1/RB20, TE1/TE20 and D1/D20. There are plenty of Receiver options out there, just be smart about who you are taking and sprinkle in some high ceiling sleepers toward the end of your draft.
Tight Ends: This was a group I was very against taking early, but after this little project I would highly suggest trying to land one of the top five guys early on. If you are unsuccessful in snagging one I would suggest trying to get two high potential players in the 9-13 round range.
Kickers: I love taking Justin Tucker in the 10th or 11th round, sometimes earlier if I felt like Bryar or Cody would try and screw me over. But, after going through these stats I will never take a Kicker earlier than the 14th or 15th round ever again. Preferably you want a top ten guy if you’re in a ten team league, but the point differentials are tremendously low. For example the point differential between K1 and K20 was only slightly higher than the difference between D1 and D5. Take your Kicker way late and if he’s causing problems for your team drop him and find that guy who is breaking out (cause there’s almost always at least one Kicker coming out of nowhere).
Defense/Special Teams: You know those guys who start taking Defenses in the 8th or 9th rounds and you just want to point your finger at them and laugh? Ya, they’re actually right. I mean the 8th round might be a little rich for me, but the 9th and 10th round wouldn’t be bad, because your goal should be to land one of the top five defenses. If you aren’t able to get one then feel free to take a flier toward the end of the draft. Just know that if you go that route you’ll likely be searching for a consistent performer at the position the entire season. That’s where streaming defenses comes into play.